Adobe Systems Incorporated · pre-call briefing
Reports 2026-09-10. The record: 159 graded commitments, beat rate 57%, median surprise +1.2%, severity-weighted accuracy 92.9. Restatements count once.
2 · The CEO on the record
Counted, never scored; commitments without a checkable bar.
2026-06-11 · “Based on this early success, we are confident that we should expand the Firefly premium experience to acquire and delight the next generation of creatives.”
3 · Resolving on this call: 5
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.coregrowthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“GAAP EPS of $4.4 to $4.45 and non GAAP EPS of $6.05 to $6.10”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
GAAP EPS and non-GAAP EPS for Q3 FY2026
GAAP EPS between $4.40 and $4.45, and non-GAAP EPS between $6.05 and $6.10 SourceWHERE TO FIND ITAdobe Q3 FY2026 earnings press release (income statement and non-GAAP reconciliation)KNOWABLE AFTER2026-09-15
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.coremarginsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“For Q3, we assume non GAAP operating of approximately 44% and a GAAP tax rate of approximately 23% and a non GAAP tax rate of approximately 18%.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Non-GAAP operating margin, GAAP tax rate, and non-GAAP tax rate for Q3 FY2026
Non-GAAP operating margin approximately 44% (43.5%-44.5%), GAAP tax rate approximately 23% (22.5%-23.5%), non-GAAP tax rate approximately 18% (17.5%-18.5%) SourceWHERE TO FIND ITAdobe Q3 FY2026 earnings release and quarterly income statementKNOWABLE AFTER2026-09-15
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.coregrowthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“For Q3 FY 26, we are targeting total Adobe revenue of $6.67 billion to $6.72 billion”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Total Adobe revenue, Q3 FY26
Between $6.67 billion and $6.72 billion SourceWHERE TO FIND ITAdobe quarterly income statement / Q3 FY26 earnings releaseKNOWABLE AFTER2026-09-15
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.coregrowthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Creative and marketing professional subscription revenue of $4.61 billion to $4.64 billion”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Creative and marketing professional subscription revenue, Q3 FY2026
Between $4.61 billion and $4.64 billion SourceWHERE TO FIND ITAdobe quarterly earnings release / segment revenue disclosure (Q3 FY2026 report)KNOWABLE AFTER2026-09-15
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.operationalgrowthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Business professionals and consumer subscription revenue of $1.87 billion to $1.89 billion”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Business professionals and consumer subscription revenue, Q3 FY2026
Between $1.87 billion and $1.89 billion SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany quarterly earnings release / segment revenue disclosure (Q3 FY2026 10-Q or earnings call)KNOWABLE AFTER2026-09-15
4 · Guidance in flight, expect an update: 6
These periods have not concluded, so nothing resolves here; management addresses each by reaffirming, raising, or cutting it.
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.coregrowthCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“Based on our strong first half revenue performance and the inclusion of Semrush, we are pleased to raise our fiscal year revenue and non GAAP EPS targets.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Fiscal year revenue and non-GAAP diluted EPS, as reported vs. company guidance
Actual FY revenue and non-GAAP EPS both meet or exceed the raised guidance ranges given on this call SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany press release / Q4 earnings report and shareholder letter (10-K, FY2026 results)KNOWABLE AFTER2026-12-15
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.coregrowthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Business Professionals and Consumer subscription revenue of $7.44 billion to $7.48 billion”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Business Professionals and Consumer subscription revenue, fiscal year 2026
Between $7.44 billion and $7.48 billion SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany income statement / segment revenue disclosure (10-K or Q4 FY2026 earnings release)KNOWABLE AFTER2026-12-15
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.coregrowthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Creative and Marketing Professional subscription revenue of $18.21 billion to $18.27 billion which now includes approximately $280 million from SEMRush.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Creative and Marketing Professional subscription revenue, full fiscal year 2026
Between $18.21 billion and $18.27 billion SourceWHERE TO FIND ITAdobe FY2026 10-K / Q4 earnings release segment revenue disclosureKNOWABLE AFTER2026-12-20
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.coregrowthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“For FY 2026, we are targeting total Adobe revenue of $20.5 billion to $20.6 billion”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Total Adobe revenue, fiscal year 2026
Full-year FY2026 total revenue between $20.5 billion and $20.6 billion SourceWHERE TO FIND ITAdobe fiscal year 2026 income statement (10-K / Q4 FY2026 earnings release)KNOWABLE AFTER2026-12-20
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.coregrowthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“GAAP EPS of $17.9 to $18 and non GAAP EPS of $24.35 to $24.45”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Adobe full-year GAAP EPS and non-GAAP EPS, FY2026
GAAP EPS between $17.90 and $18.00 AND non-GAAP EPS between $24.35 and $24.45 SourceWHERE TO FIND ITAdobe FY2026 full-year earnings release / 10-K income statement and non-GAAP reconciliationKNOWABLE AFTER2026-12-20
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.coremarginsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Our FY 2026 targets assume a non GAAP operating margin of approximately 45% a GAAP tax rate of approximately 22.5%, and a non GAAP tax rate of approximately 18%.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Non-GAAP operating margin, FY2026
Non-GAAP operating margin between 44.0% and 46.0% SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany FY2026 earnings release / non-GAAP reconciliation (10-K / Q4 FY26 earnings call)KNOWABLE AFTER2026-12-20
5 · Walked back recently
REVISED DOWN
“And we should expect to see that start to accelerate in the back half.”
THEN
“The strategic shift to acquire more freemium customers through Adobe and Firefly, lowers our second half ARR growth expectations from individual subscribers”
REVISED DOWN
“Our FY 2026 targets anticipate non-GAAP operating margin of approximately 45%, a GAAP tax rate of approximately 20.5%, and a non-GAAP tax rate of approximately 18%.”
THEN
“Our FY 2026 targets assume a non GAAP operating margin of approximately 45% a GAAP tax rate of approximately 22.5%, and a non GAAP tax rate of approximately 18%.”
REVISED DOWN -0.55%
“GAAP EPS of $17.9 to $18.10.”
THEN
“GAAP EPS of $17.9 to $18 and non GAAP EPS of $24.35 to $24.45”
REVISED DOWN
“The transaction is expected to close in 2023, subject to regulatory approvals.”
THEN
“As per the current timelines, the EC's decision deadline is February 5th and the CMA’s is February 25th, while the DOJ does not have a formal timeline to decide whether to bring a complaint, we expect a decision soon.”
Method: methodology 4.0. Every grade carries its verbatim source; abstention is disclosed, never guessed.