DE · pre-call briefing
Reports 2026-08-20. The record: 187 graded commitments, beat rate 41%, median surprise -2.6%, severity-weighted accuracy 73.9. Restatements count once.
3 · Resolving on this call: 0
Nothing is due to resolve at this specific report; the in-flight guidance below is where the call carries stakes.
4 · Guidance in flight, expect an update: 6
These periods have not concluded, so nothing resolves here; management addresses each by reaffirming, raising, or cutting it.
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.corecostsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“the cumulative impact of these changes is that on a full year basis, our direct tariff exposure remains essentially unchanged at approximately $1 billion to $1.2 billion, which is approximately a 3% margin headwind.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Full-year direct tariff exposure (cost impact, $) and associated gross margin headwind (%)
Full-year direct tariff cost between $1.0 billion and $1.2 billion, with margin headwind approximately 3% (2.5%-3.5%) SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany management commentary / investor presentation on tariff impact, disclosed in fiscal Q4 2026 earnings release or callKNOWABLE AFTER2026-10-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.coregrowthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“The 2026 net sales are now forecasted to be up approximately 20% for the full year.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Segment net sales growth for full fiscal year 2026 vs fiscal year 2025
Full-year 2026 net sales growth between 17% and 23% year-over-year SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany 10-K / Q4 FY2026 earnings release segment net sales figuresKNOWABLE AFTER2026-11-30
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.coremarginsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Our full year forecast for the segment's operating margin is also unchanged. And remains between 11% and 13%.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Production and Precision Ag segment operating margin, full fiscal year
Full year segment operating margin between 11% and 13% SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany-disclosed segment results (10-K / Q4 earnings release and call)KNOWABLE AFTER2026-11-30
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.corepricingCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“I would call out, you know, that you know, that all of our regions are expected to be price positive in the large ag business.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Price realization (year-over-year) in the large ag business, by region (North America and other regions) and full-year company guide
All regions report positive (>0%) price realization for large ag business for fiscal year, with full-year average near 1% SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany disclosures / earnings call commentary and segment pricing data (10-K / Q4 and full-year earnings call)KNOWABLE AFTER2026-10-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.coregrowthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“For Production and Precision Ag, net sales forecast is unchanged. And remains down between 5% and 10% for the full year.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Production and Precision Ag segment net sales, year-over-year change, full fiscal year
Full-year net sales decline between 5% and 10% versus prior fiscal year SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany segment financial disclosures (10-K / Q4 earnings release and call)KNOWABLE AFTER2026-11-30
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.coregrowthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“For fiscal year 26, our net income forecast remains unchanged between $4.5 billion and $5 billion”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Full fiscal year 2026 net income attributable to Deere & Company
Between $4.5 billion and $5.0 billion SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany income statement / fiscal 2026 10-K or Q4 earnings releaseKNOWABLE AFTER2026-11-30
5 · Walked back recently
REVISED DOWN
“I think on the PPA side, that 1.5 points for the full year, and I think we would expect that really as we run through the remaining quarters. So not too lumpy or different as we go 2 through 4Q.”
THEN
“This forecast now reflects roughly 1 point of positive price realization for the full year, as well as just under 3 points of favorable currency translation.”
REVISED DOWN -5%
“Global forestry markets are expected to remain flat.”
THEN
“Global forestry markets are expected to decline 5%.”
REVISED DOWN -5%
“Within South America, we anticipate industry sales of tractors and combines will remain flat in 2026.”
THEN
“In South America, industry sales of tractors and combines are now expected to be down approximately 5%”
REVISED DOWN
“If you look at our price cost, expectation for 2026, inclusive of tariffs in that number, we expect to be price cost positive.”
THEN
“We're probably closer now to price/cost neutral for the full year, just given particularly a little bit of a reduction on the pricing side in C&F.”
Method: methodology 4.0. Every grade carries its verbatim source; abstention is disclosed, never guessed.