Toll Brothers Inc · pre-call briefing
Reports 2026-08-18. The record: 80 graded commitments, beat rate 58%, median surprise 0%, severity-weighted accuracy 80.1. Restatements count once.
1 · Questions worth asking
1. Within the range underlying REF1, what mix or cadence assumption between segments is doing the work, and has that mix shifted from what was assumed when the commitment was set?
Basis: REF1, assumption underneath the resolving commitment
2. On the walked-back guidance, which specific variable moved to trigger the revision, and what level of that variable would need to hold for the original target to come back into reach?
Basis: walk-back mechanism
3. For the CEO's longer-dated commitment still open, what has to be true operationally over the next year, in capacity or headcount terms, to keep it on the original schedule?
Basis: CEO long-dated commitment, next milestone
3 · Resolving on this call: 0
Nothing is due to resolve at this specific report; the in-flight guidance below is where the call carries stakes.
4 · Guidance in flight, expect an update: 0
No live guidance on the clock.
5 · Walked back recently
REVISED DOWN -2.6%
“We expect community count to be approximately 360 at the end of the third quarter and approximately 385 by fiscal year-end.”
THEN
“We expect community count to be approximately 375 by fiscal year-end with continued growth in fiscal year 2024.”
REVISED DOWN
“We are also beginning to see some building costs come down beyond just lumber, which continues to steadily drop.”
THEN
“But right now, costs are stabilized, except for lumber, which is a nice tailwind. So stay tuned for the balance of the year.”
REVISED DOWN +0.9%
“Our weighted average share count is expected to be approximately 112.5 million for the first quarter and 110 million shares for the full 2023 year.”
THEN
“Our weighted average share count is expected to be approximately 120 -- I'm sorry, 112 million shares for the second quarter and 111 million shares for the full 2023 fiscal year.”
REVISED DOWN
“Our guidance for the fourth quarter is therefore $68 million, primarily from the sale of certain apartment-living assets.”
THEN
“However, we are pushing these sales into fiscal year 2023 when we expect to see better pricing from buyers.”
Method: methodology 4.0. Every grade carries its verbatim source; abstention is disclosed, never guessed.