CLAIM #10185 · BK (BK) · 2022Q4 earnings call · Jan 13, 2023 · due Dec 31, 2023
“we do continue to expect to benefit from significantly higher reinvestment yields.”
Emily Portney · CFO
In context
“ink about the NIR outlook, the first thing I would just mention is that we use the forward curves to as a basis of our projection. So, we don't try to get cute. And as all of you know, for the Fed that assumes another 50 basis points of hikes in the first quarter, probably followed by a pause until the end of the year. The curves outside the US assume about 125 basis points to 150 basis points worth of hikes by both the BOE and the ECB. So, as a result of these curves and rising rates as well as, I would say, all of the actions that we've taken in the securities portfolio, and by that, I don't just mean the rebalancing that we did in December, but we, obviously, positioned the portfolio throughout the year, meaningfully shortening duration, adding floaters, et cetera, so with all of that, we do continue to expect to benefit from significantly higher reinvestment yields. Now tempering that a bit, we do expect deposits to decline modestly, call it, low to mid single digit from fourth quarter average. And finally, as it relates to marginal betas, we would expect them to continue to increase, but of course, more so for non-dollar balances. So that's really what's behind the 20% guide year-on-year. But I would also say there's a lot of uncertainty in the market and certainly, we're prepared for many different outcomes. It will be highly dependent upon deposit levels and there's some upside there if we retain more NIBs. Brennan Hawken: Great. That's very helpful. Thank you, Emily. Capital accretion was really encouraging this quarter. You guys have the rather large buyback announced and you made some positive comments on it in your prepared remarks, Emily. So,”
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SEC filings for BK ↗ · Claim quote is verbatim from the 2022Q4 earnings call.