“This will underpin our path to $51 million to $53 billion of expenses, subject to volume-related expenses.”

In context

“tely $700 million to $1 billion. This will contribute to reducing headcount over 2024 and the medium term, which we will discuss on the next slide. On slide 22, we show the drivers of headcount and expense reduction over the medium term. As we've discussed in the past, there are three drivers that will reduce our expenses, organizational simplification, including the reduction of management layers, eliminating stranded costs as we take additional actions to reduce excess overhead in light of the exit markets and realizing productivity savings from our investments in the transformation and technology. We expect the combination of these three drivers to reduce our headcount by a net 20,000, excluding Mexico and generate a net run rate save of $2 billion to $2.5 billion over the medium term. This will underpin our path to $51 million to $53 billion of expenses, subject to volume-related expenses. Both the headcount and expense reduction will allow us to right-size the firm and businesses to improve performance and returns. On slide 23, we show our outlook for US Cards in 2024. In terms of credit performance, based on the trends that we're seeing, we expect NCL rates both in branded cards and retail services portfolios to rise above pre-COVID levels and peak in 2024. On a full year basis for 2024, we expect the branded card's NCL rates to be in the range of 3.5% to 4% and the retail services NCL rate to be in the range of 5.75% to 6.25%. From an allowance perspective, we are reserved for a weighted eight quarter average unemployment rate of almost 5%, which embeds a downside scenario of approximately 6.8%. ACL builds in 2024 will primarily be a function of the volume growth that we”