“In 2025, we anticipate that trend to continue to be more pronounced as sales in the first quarter should account for a lower percentage of full year sales than is typical by about 100 basis points.”

In context

“we expect to be in the top half of our target range of $5 billion to $10 billion. The first quarter of 2025 will be impacted by a $1.4 billion cash outflow related to the payout of last year’s incentive compensation. We anticipate CapEx of about $2.5 billion in 2025 as we continue to make disciplined investments that are right for our business, governed by a focus on growing absolute OPACC [ph] dollars. This includes the multi-year capital investment to expand our large engine volume output capability that we mentioned last year. Turning to Slide 18, to assist with your modeling, I’ll provide some color on the first quarter, starting with the top line. We expect lower sales versus the prior year. For perspective, in a typical year we see our lowest sales in the first quarter of the year. In 2025, we anticipate that trend to continue to be more pronounced as sales in the first quarter should account for a lower percentage of full year sales than is typical by about 100 basis points. This decrease is mainly due to our expectations for dealer inventory movements and price, which primarily impacts machines. Energy and transportation is expected to show normal seasonality with sales growing throughout the year. Let me explain. Although dealers did reduce machine inventory significantly in the fourth quarter, they remain around the top end of the range as we enter 2025. This compares with dealer inventories in construction industries being towards the middle of the range at the beginning of 2024. As a result, we expect them to build correspondingly less inventory during the first quarter than the $1.1 billion that they built in the first quarter of 2024. As we expect dealer inventory to be about flat by year end, we should see a tailwind to sales in the fourth quarter as”