“As we expect dealer inventory to be about flat by year end, we should see a tailwind to sales in the fourth quarter as we don’t expect a similar machine dealer inventory change as we have seen in the last two years.”

In context

“n the first quarter should account for a lower percentage of full year sales than is typical by about 100 basis points. This decrease is mainly due to our expectations for dealer inventory movements and price, which primarily impacts machines. Energy and transportation is expected to show normal seasonality with sales growing throughout the year. Let me explain. Although dealers did reduce machine inventory significantly in the fourth quarter, they remain around the top end of the range as we enter 2025. This compares with dealer inventories in construction industries being towards the middle of the range at the beginning of 2024. As a result, we expect them to build correspondingly less inventory during the first quarter than the $1.1 billion that they built in the first quarter of 2024. As we expect dealer inventory to be about flat by year end, we should see a tailwind to sales in the fourth quarter as we don’t expect a similar machine dealer inventory change as we have seen in the last two years. We also expect unfavorable price realization for machines in the first quarter due to the impact of post-sales merchandising programs. We would expect these price impacts to be greater for machines in the first half of the year as the noticeable impact of post-sales merchandising programs started in the third quarter of 2024, making for an easier comparison in the second half. To pull together the impact by segment, we anticipate lower sales in construction industries in the first quarter, impacted by lower sales to users, the headwind from changes in dealer inventory and price, the impact of which should be similar to what we saw in the fourth quarter of 2024. In resource industries in the first quarter, we expect lower sales volume versus the prior year, impacted by lower volume and unf”