CLAIM #13764 · CAT (CAT) · 2025Q4 earnings call · Jan 29, 2026 · due Dec 31, 2026
“The run rate should improve towards the second half of the year as we take actions to reduce our tariff exposure.”
Andrew Bonfield · CFO
How to check this claim
Look at: Quarterly incremental tariff cost (absolute value, reported vs. 2024 baseline)
It came true if: Second-half 2026 quarterly incremental tariff cost run rate lower than the $800 million reported for Q1 2026
Where: Company quarterly earnings release / management commentary on Q2 and Q3 2026 earnings calls
In context
“become increasingly challenging to pass out and track whether cost control or price action is directly tied to tariff mitigation versus being taken in the normal course of business. Therefore, going forward, we report our absolute incremental tariff cost, which will only take into account those mitigating actions that reduce the absolute value of the tariff exposure. As a reminder, the incremental tariffs we report are measured against the 2024 baseline year. For the full year, incremental tariff costs are expected to be around $2.6 billion, which is $800 million higher than incurred in 2025. If we did not take the actions we plan to take in 2026, this bill would be around 20% higher. We expect incremental tariff costs of around $800 million in the first quarter, a level similar to 2025. The run rate should improve towards the second half of the year as we take actions to reduce our tariff exposure. Finally, please remember that tariffs are volume sensitive. We will continue to take actions to manage our costs in the normal course of business and remain committed to operating within our adjusted operating profit margin target range with the goal of being around the midpoint of the range over time. Now concluding our expectations for the year, we expect restructuring costs of roughly $300 million to $350 million. Our global annual effective tax rate is anticipated to be 23% excluding discrete items, MP and E free cash flow should be slightly lower than 2025 reflecting the high CapEx of around $3.5 billion in 2026. Now turning to slide 18. To assist you with your modeling, I'll provide color on the first quarter. Starting with the top line, we would expect stronger sales and revenues v”
Verify independently
SEC filings for CAT ↗ · Claim quote is verbatim from the 2025Q4 earnings call.