CLAIM #15566 · Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) · 2021Q4 earnings call · Jan 25, 2022 · due Dec 31, 2022
“So I would expect the payment rates to follow, not exactly in lockstep, but I think that, that should follow.”
Richard Fairbank · CEO
In context
“onship is unmistakable. Bill, to your point, though, it's not like one-for-one. And I think that we could certainly expect there could be some divergences there. On the topic of normalization, when we think about the normalization of payment rates, my mind first goes to the normalization of credit. And I think these record levels of low credit losses inevitably have to normalize. And I think when you pull out a magnifying glass and sort of look at various metrics and things in the numbers and behind the numbers, you can see the early signs of normalization that are a little bit ahead of seasonality, for example, that's a very natural thing. Probably what strikes us and kind of surprises us is how modest and moderate those are, but we certainly operate with an assumption of normalization. So I would expect the payment rates to follow, not exactly in lockstep, but I think that, that should follow. And so what happens for investors is a little bit of a trade. At the moment, the financial trade is lower payment rates, lower growth of loans and really spectacular credit. And as things normalize, I think that gives a boost to the loan growth but sort of is offset on the credit side of the house. So the other thing that's going on at Capital One because if you look at our trust data -- now by the way, our trust, and it's probably true for every player, the securitization trust is not an absolutely representative sample of anybody's full portfolio. But if you look at payment rates at Capital One, probably, even in particular, have just risen so significantly over this period of time. And I haven't looked at it lately, but it wouldn't surprise me if it even rose sort of more than for a n”
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SEC filings for COF ↗ · Claim quote is verbatim from the 2021Q4 earnings call.