CLAIM #15650 · Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) · 2022Q4 earnings call · Jan 24, 2023 · due Dec 31, 2023
“So, I would say the net of all of those factors is likely to be a modest headwind to NIM.”
Andrew Young · CFO
In context
“ta and asset yields as components of NIM, as we get into the latter part of this rate cycle, lagged deposit rates really have a bigger impact than the asset yields that reprice more quickly and did so over the last couple of quarters as the Fed was moving rapidly. And so, there’s a bit of that sequential dynamic going on. In terms of thinking about overall deposit beta and product mix, roughly 85% of our deposits are in consumer. It’s where our focus lies. And so if you just look at the cumulative deposit beta for the total company, it’s around 35%, was low-20s last quarter. But if you look at the last increasing rate cycle, I think the terminal beta was around 41. So, I could see a terminal beta being somewhere above that, just given competitive dynamics in the marketplace at this point. So, I would say the net of all of those factors is likely to be a modest headwind to NIM. We talked last quarter about balance sheet mix – and we are largely back to a pre-pandemic balance sheet mix from where we were a year ago. And frankly, our NIM is roughly in a similar spot. So, I would say balance sheet mix over a multiple quarter period isn’t likely to be a big driver, unless we just see outsized growth in the higher-margin card business. And then, the other factor that could prove to be a tailwind to potentially offset a little bit of the modest headwind that probably comes from the beta dynamics that I described is we could also see a bit of an increase in card revolve rates from where they are today. So, all of those things are – just to leave you with kind of a net impression that there are headwinds and potentially some tailwinds. But the one thing I will just note”
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SEC filings for COF ↗ · Claim quote is verbatim from the 2022Q4 earnings call.