CLAIM #15706 · Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) · 2023Q3 earnings call · Oct 26, 2023 · due Mar 31, 2024
“particularly assuming if rates do stay higher for longer, I wouldn't be surprised if there continues to be some upward pressure on beta at least in the near term, driven by those factors that I described, the pricing and product mix piece.”
Andrew Young · CFO
In context
“an you just talk about some of the puts and takes on NIM in the near term, particularly on the deposit competition side. Any thoughts on where deposit betas go? What are you seeing from a competitive standpoint? Thank you. Andrew Young: Yeah. With respect to beta, as we've discussed in previous calls, there's really a couple of key factors that are impacting betas. The first is product mix. Sort of the rotation of customers across products. And then, the second is competitive pricing. And within that, I would include the notion of just deposit pricing lags that we've talked about. And so for us, the quarter-over-quarter beta with that lag effect was something like 160%. Our cumulative beta now stands at $57 million. And so that getting factored into NIM as we look ahead on that dimension, particularly assuming if rates do stay higher for longer, I wouldn't be surprised if there continues to be some upward pressure on beta at least in the near term, driven by those factors that I described, the pricing and product mix piece. So beyond that then, in the NIM, we have seen spreads widen a bit here and wholesale funding costs are up a bit. And I think Rich talked about suppression in card, but depending on the path of credit, there's the potential at least for increased revenue suppression. So I would lump all of those three things together as potential headwinds. But from a tailwind perspective, we can continue to see growth in card and particularly revolving card balances as a percent of the balance sheet like you saw this quarter. And then the other thing that I would note, even though cash balances remain elevated relative to historical standards, I think we will see it settle out at a level that's higher than pre-pandemic, but ultimately lower than where we are today as you look ahead over multiple quarters.”
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SEC filings for COF ↗ · Claim quote is verbatim from the 2023Q3 earnings call.