“we are prudently assuming that the elevated medical cost trends we observed in the fourth quarter will carry forward into 2024.”

In context

“r outlook for 2024 in recognition of the marketplace uncertainty around utilization trends and Medicare Advantage, we revised our 2024 adjust EPS guidance to at least $8.30. In the Healthcare Benefit segment, we now expect our 2024 medical benefit ratio to be approximately 87.7%, an increase of 50 basis points from our previous guidance. As I already noted, we observed elevated medical cost trends in our Medicare Advantage business in the fourth quarter, which pressured our full-year 2023 medical benefit ratio by approximately 10 basis points relative to our prior guidance. The remaining pressure in the quarter was largely a function of mix and higher revenue offset than we previously projected. Based on our review of our recently completed fourth quarter 2023 medical cost trend analysis, we are prudently assuming that the elevated medical cost trends we observed in the fourth quarter will carry forward into 2024. Accordingly, we have increased our full-year 2024 MBR guidance by approximately 40 basis points to account for this pressure. As discussed throughout 2023 we had included a provision for elevated utilization in our 2024 medical benefit ratio guidance and we'll continue to hold that provision until we have more clarity on the Medicare Advantage utilization environment. Our revised outlook also reflects an expectation of at least 800,000 new Medicare Advantage members in 2024. As we have previously discussed, the profile of these new members is attractive, with nearly three-quarters of these members switching from other Medicare plans and about a third of members expected in D-SNP plans. We continue to expect these new members will be neutral to earnings, but the mix impact from incremental”