“We also project year-over-year improvements in our combined commercial line business driven by margin recovery in individual exchange offset by pressures in group commercial from membership declines and elevated levels of medical cost trend.”

In context

“e expected to be partially offset by growth in our commercial self-insured business. We expect to generate healthcare benefits revenue of approximately $132 billion as membership declines in Medicare Advantage and individual exchange are offset by Medicare programming changes and growth in other products. At the low end of our healthcare benefits adjusted operating income guidance range, we project our medical benefit ratio will improve by 100 basis points over 2024, yielding an MBR of approximately 91.5%. Outperformance on this ratio is one of the largest potential factors that could drive us higher in our adjusted EPS guidance range. The largest driver of the reduction in our medical benefit ratio is projected improvement in our government businesses, particularly in Medicare Advantage. We also project year-over-year improvements in our combined commercial line business driven by margin recovery in individual exchange offset by pressures in group commercial from membership declines and elevated levels of medical cost trend. We also expect the contribution from net investment income will decline. Overall, we expect healthcare benefits to deliver adjusted operating income of at least $1.5 billion. This projection reflects a respectful view of trends in light of continued elevated medical cost trends that we experienced in the fourth quarter. As a reminder, every point of trend is worth approximately $800 million in healthcare benefits adjusted operating income results. Shifting now to our health services segment, we expect revenue of approximately $185 billion primarily driven by growth at Caremark as we continue to deliver value to our clients. Adjusted operating income for this segment is expected to grow approximately 4% to $7.54 billion. While our 2025 guidance reflects continued core pharmacy services gro”