“Our full year outlook also assumes U.S. industry SAAR of about 16.8 million units, U.S. industry pricing of about 0.5%, a net cost improvement of $1 billion, excluding the impact of tariffs; and lastly, capital expenditures of about $9 billion.”

In context

“billion or less. For 2025, we expect an adjusted EBIT headwind of $1.5 billion to $2 billion in the fourth quarter for Novelis, and we currently have line of sight to mitigate at least $1 billion in 2026, and we are working to improve the situation further. We also expect an adjusted free cash flow headwind of $2 billion to $3 billion in the fourth quarter. Keep in mind, the production disruptions result in an oversized short-term impact on our working capital, which will reverse next year. Given the recent announcements by the administration, we now expect tariffs will be a $1 billion net headwind for 2025, down from $2 billion. This brings our updated adjusted EBIT guidance for 2025 to between $6 billion to $6.5 billion with adjusted free cash flow of between $2 billion and $3 billion. Our full year outlook also assumes U.S. industry SAAR of about 16.8 million units, U.S. industry pricing of about 0.5%, a net cost improvement of $1 billion, excluding the impact of tariffs; and lastly, capital expenditures of about $9 billion. Turning to 2026. While it's premature to give guidance, I want to share some puts and takes as you think about the industry and Ford. First, we have line of sight to recover at least $1 billion related to Novelis. For tariffs, we expect a net full year impact similar to 2025. For compliance, the evolving global emissions landscape is expected to eliminate 2026 compliance headwinds, thereby unlocking opportunities to optimize our mix of ICE, hybrids and EVs and reduce reliance on credits. And for cost, we plan to deliver another $1 billion of cost improvements across our industrial system, which will be redeployed to strategic accretive ICE and hybrid cycle plan actions. Additionally, UAV platform spending will continue to increase as we ramp our Marshall LFP battery plant and change over”