“As a result of this expected decline in IRS returns, we anticipate total customers to decline 5% this year.”

In context

“demic-era stimulus filers who did not file this season. As a result of these same industry dynamics, we expect our retention to decline this year. The fourth is average revenue per return, which we expect to increase 12% this year, as we expect TurboTax Live customers to grow 13%, with TurboTax Live revenue up 19%. Historically, each point of total IRS returns growth corresponds to approximately 1 point of revenue growth for the Consumer Group and each point of DIY category share growth corresponds to approximately 2.5 points of revenue growth for the Consumer Group. Using these historical sensitivities, the expected decline in total IRS returns and DIY category share equates to an approximate $200 million negative impact to revenue for the Consumer Group versus our original expectations. As a result of this expected decline in IRS returns, we anticipate total customers to decline 5% this year. We expect TurboTax Online paying customers to decline 1% this year, and a total of over 11 million customers who pay us nothing, down from 13 million last year. We now expect full year Consumer Group revenue growth of 5% to 6% versus our prior guidance of 9% to 10%, reflecting the expected declines in IRS returns and DIY category share I mentioned earlier. Looking back over the last four years, including our updated guidance for this fiscal year, we expect our revenue to have grown over 10% on average annually, in-line with our long-term expectations. We continue to anticipate Consumer Group revenue growth of 8% to 12% long-term. Turning to the ProTax Group, revenue declined 5% in Q3. For the full year, we now expect ProTax revenue growth of 2% to 3%. In the Small Business and Self-Employ”