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CLAIM #34680 · JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM) · 2024Q3 earnings call · Oct 11, 2024 · due Jun 30, 2025

But the trough may be happening sometime in the middle of next year, at which point the combination of balances, card revolve growth, and other factors can return us to sequential growth.

Jeremy Barnum · CFO

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versus commitment · official band 5 percent
Committed
the trough may be happening sometime in the middle of next year, at which point ... can return us to sequential growth
Reported
we now expect NII ex markets to be approximately $92 billion with the increase driven by changes in the forward curve and strong deposit growth in payments, security services, as well as balance growth in card

In context

the market have that it's likely that the end of Q2 will be announced sometime soon, that's also a little bit supportive for deposit balances. So maybe I'll, well I guess then you also asked me a little bit about next year. So I guess one thing to say, right, is that we did have a sequential increase in NII this quarter. And as you may recall at Investor Day, I said that there was some chance that we would see sequential increases followed by sequential declines and that people should avoid kind of drawing the conclusion that we'd hit the trough when that happened. So that's essentially exactly what we're seeing now. But from where we sit now, given the yield curve, assuming the yield curve materializes, obviously, we do see a pretty clear picture of sequential declines at NII ex-markets. But the trough may be happening sometime in the middle of next year, at which point the combination of balances, card revolve growth, and other factors can return us to sequential growth. Obviously, we're guessing it's pretty far out in the future, and we'll give you formal guidance on all this stuff next quarter, but I think that gives you, you know, a bit of a framework to work with. Jim Mitchell: All right. Thanks a lot. Jeremy Barnum: Thanks. Operator: Thank you. Thank you. Next, we will go to the line of Steven Chubak with Wolfe Research. You may proceed. Steven Chubak: Hi, good morning. So Jeremy. Hi, how are you? So I did want to ask on expenses just in light of some of the comments that Daniel had made recently, just noting that contentious expense forecast for next year looked a little bit too light. I believe at the time it was just below $94 billion. If we adjust for the one-timers this year, that would suggest a core expense base that's just below $90 billion.

Verify independently

SEC filings for JPM · Claim quote is verbatim from the 2024Q3 earnings call.