“Based on earned premium roll-forward and barring unforeseen significant changes in loss trends, we expect the accident year loss ratio ex-catastrophes will remain strong in the second half of 2024 at approximately the same level as the first half.”

In context

“1.6 billion of General Insurance dividends paid to parent at quarter-end, we expect third quarter General Insurance investment income from fixed maturities, loans and short-term investments of about $700 million. Income on alternatives and other investment assets were $33 million and $52 million respectively in the quarter, up $32 million in total from $44 million and $9 million respectively in second quarter 2023. Second quarter 2024 underwriting income on a comparable basis was $430 million versus $420 million in second quarter last year, driven by lower expenses, partially offset by higher catastrophe losses. Year-to-date, underwriting results have been strong with an accident year loss ratio ex-catastrophes of 56.3%, mainly driven by changes in business mix compared to the prior year. Based on earned premium roll-forward and barring unforeseen significant changes in loss trends, we expect the accident year loss ratio ex-catastrophes will remain strong in the second half of 2024 at approximately the same level as the first half. Turning to natural catastrophes. The industry globally had another quarter of elevated losses with approximately 100 events. For AIG, second quarter catastrophe losses totaled $325 million or 5.7 points on the loss ratio, principally from secondary apparels, including severe convective storms in the United States, floods in the Middle East and Brazil, and hail in Japan with a roughly 50-50 split between North America and International. Our largest loss in the quarter totaled $90 million from exceptionally heavy rains in the UAE. Considering the forecast for hurricane season this year and secondary peril losses year-to-date, we believe that using AIG's last year total catastrophe losses is a good proxy for full year 2024. While actual losses will depend on the size and strength of events,”