CLAIM #48662 · Pfizer Inc (PFE) · 2025Q4 earnings call · Feb 3, 2026 · due Dec 31, 2026
“Applying the same model to project the potential efficacy of the planned phase three high dose regimen of 9.6 milligrams monthly, we predict placebo-adjusted weight loss of nearly 16% at week twenty-eight.”
Chris Boshoff · Chief Scientific Officer
How to check this claim
Look at: Placebo-adjusted weight loss (%) at week 28 for the 9.6 mg monthly high-dose regimen in the Phase 3 trial (VESPA 4 or successor high-dose monthly study)
It came true if: Reported placebo-adjusted weight loss at week 28 is approximately 16% (14%-18% range)
Where: Company press release or clinical trial results disclosure (Phase 3 high-dose monthly regimen data, PFE)
In context
“ent the trial's efficacy estimate. In the teal bars are model predictions of the potential efficacy we would expect with monthly maintenance dosing of 3944 in a study of adults with obesity or overweight and without type two diabetes, similar to VSPA three. A model-based meta-analysis approach was used to generate these predictions. This approach uses a mathematical model to capture the weight loss trajectory over time and the dose-response relationship. This model was built taking into account the observed data from the VESTA three trial, the available data from other 3944 clinical studies, and data from published trials of other weight loss. For the low and medium dose regimens, we see excellent concordance between our VESPA three clinical data in blue and our model predictions in teal. Applying the same model to project the potential efficacy of the planned phase three high dose regimen of 9.6 milligrams monthly, we predict placebo-adjusted weight loss of nearly 16% at week twenty-eight. Note the high dose is already being studied in the Vespa four phase three study as a 2.4 milligram weekly dose. Collectively, our clinical data model predicts show that 3944 can deliver robust weight loss after switching to monthly administration and suggest that we can potentially achieve increased efficacy with a higher dose. Moreover, VESPER three data do not show a weight loss plateau reached at week twenty-eight. Projecting continued weight loss is expected as the study continues through week sixty-four. With these results, we are confident that 3944 has the potential to deliver efficacy that is competitive with the standard of care and potentially best in class among monoagonists with a differentiated monthly dosing format. Chris Boshoff: Next, I'll turn your attention to the second”
Verify independently
SEC filings for PFE ↗ · Claim quote is verbatim from the 2025Q4 earnings call.