“Our outlook for commodity costs remains unchanged, forecasting a commodity cost headwind of approximately $200 million after tax, which equates to a headwind of $0.08 per share for fiscal 2025.”

In context

“talk through each of these, and I will get to tariffs in the end, so please bear with me. On the top line, we now expect organic sales growth of approximately 2% for the fiscal year. With one quarter remaining, this deducts to fourth-quarter organic growth of 0.5% to 4.5%. A key determinant in where we land within that range is underlying market growth. Regardless of whether markets remain weak or accelerate back to prior growth levels, we expect to grow our brands modestly ahead of underlying markets. On the bottom line, our outlook is now for core EPS of $6.72 to $6.82 per share for the fiscal year. This equates to core EPS growth in the range of 2% to 4% for fiscal year 2025, versus prior year core EPS of $6.59. This guidance deducts to a range of $1.37 to $1.47 for the fourth quarter. Our outlook for commodity costs remains unchanged, forecasting a commodity cost headwind of approximately $200 million after tax, which equates to a headwind of $0.08 per share for fiscal 2025. Since last earnings, foreign exchange rates have eased modestly. We are now estimating a headwind of approximately $200 million after tax, which equates to a headwind of $0.08 per share for fiscal 2025. We continue to expect lower non-operating income benefits for the fiscal year. As a reminder, the fourth-quarter base period includes the gain from the divestiture of our Vidal Sassoon brand in China. We are now forecasting only modest headwinds from net interest income and expense, and an effective tax rate roughly in line with the prior year. Combined, these below-the-line items are around a $0.04 headwind to core EPS. We continue to forecast adjusted free cash flow productivity of 90% for the year, and we have plans to pay around $10 billion in dividends and to repurchase $6 to $7 billi”