“The full year estimated impact of these factors is around 40 basis points on our adjusted OI margin, and without this impact, we would expect to be broadly in the middle of our forecast organic margin range.”

In context

“As part of this growth, we are reiterating our targeted HTU shipment range of $125 billion to $132 billion, while we expect a cigarette volume decline of 1.5% to 2.5%. We are increasing our organic net revenue growth forecast to 7.5% to 8.5%, reflecting the continued momentum of IQOS, the resilience of our combustible business, and the ongoing excellent growth of ZYN, which we expect to contribute positively in Q4. We expect strong organic operating income growth in the remainder of the year to support H2 margin expansion despite the headwinds previously mentioned and certain technical impacts. These relate to the increased use of third-party manufacturing in a few markets, such as Indonesia and Ukraine, and the related growth of the below Tier 1 segment in Indonesia I already mentioned. The full year estimated impact of these factors is around 40 basis points on our adjusted OI margin, and without this impact, we would expect to be broadly in the middle of our forecast organic margin range. On top of this organic evolution, we expect Swedish Match to add around 50 basis points of accretion. Our strong topline and OI outlook allows us to raise our forecast for currency-neutral adjusted diluted EPS growth to 8% to 9.5%. This translates to a revised range of $6.13 to $6.22, including $0.33 from unfavorable currency at prevailing exchange rates, notably due to the Japanese yen and Russian ruble. This forecast continues to assume around $150 million for incremental investments in the US, and our Wellness and Healthcare business. It also assumes around $1.2 billion in net finance costs, which includes higher interest on variable debt, partly offset by better returns on cash deposits. As previously mentioned, our forecasts do not assume any contribution from a potential favorable”