“However, we see an incremental headwind of around 2 billion units to our full year adjusted IMS forecasts, the majority of which is driven by the ongoing delay in approval for commercialization in Taiwan, which was previously expected around the midpoint of the year.”

In context

“n the combustible market. I am also pleased to report very good progress in the UAE and Jordan. Following the recent launch of ILUMA, growth in Mexico City is very promising and the East Asian market of South Korea and Malaysia continue to perform well. Also worth highlighting is the successful contribution of Duty Free, where we are increasingly leveraging our multi-category portfolio to expand share in a growing market as travel recovers in Asia. Our fundamental HTU growth outlook for the year has not changed. H1 adjusted IMS growth of plus 11.4% reflects the strong dynamic I described across Japan, Europe, and global markets, partly offset by the transitory impact of the EU flavor ban. Indeed, growth excluding Europe accelerated compared to the last year and we expect this to continue. However, we see an incremental headwind of around 2 billion units to our full year adjusted IMS forecasts, the majority of which is driven by the ongoing delay in approval for commercialization in Taiwan, which was previously expected around the midpoint of the year. We also factor in an impact of a few hundred million units for a slower recovery from the characterizing flavor ban in Europe, principally in Italy. I would note that our revised full year forecast for adjusted IMS growth of around 13% represents the same absolute volume increase as 2023 despite the EU headwind. We accordingly forecast full year HTU shipment volume of around 140 billion units with shipment as usual expected to be a few billion units higher than adjusted IMS given continued offtake and user growth. Importantly, we expect a very strong H2 delivery in adjusted IMS on both sequential and year-on-year basis to between plus 14% and plus 15% growth. This is supported by a notable step-up in commercial activity, continued momentum in Japan and increasingly dynamic global markets.”