CLAIM #50400 · PM (PM) · 2025Q4 earnings call · Feb 6, 2026 · due Dec 31, 2026
“For combustibles, we forecast a cigarette decline of around 3% with weaker industry volumes in India and Mexico following the recent excise tax increases and our own recovery in Turkey likely to impact comparisons in the first half.”
Jacek Olczak · CEO
How to check this claim
Look at: Cigarette shipment volume decline, full year 2026, as reported by PMI
It came true if: Full-year 2026 cigarette shipment volume decline between 2.0% and 4.0%
Where: PMI full-year 2026 earnings release / 10-K volume disclosures
In context
“le including record high for Marlboro, both for the full year and in Q4, where its share reached 11% of the international category excluding China. For 2026, we forecast a convertible pricing variance of around plus 6%, reflecting continued dynamic performance. With that, I will now hand it back to Yatzek. Jacek Olczak: Thank you, Emmanuel. This brings me to our outlook for 2026, where we expect another year of strong and profitable growth despite several transitory headwinds. Starting with volumes, we expect continued strong underlying momentum in our smoke-free business for all three categories. Both shipments and adjusted IMS volumes are projected to grow in a high single digit after factoring in the headwinds from Japan excise taxes and US zinc inventory comparisons described earlier. For combustibles, we forecast a cigarette decline of around 3% with weaker industry volumes in India and Mexico following the recent excise tax increases and our own recovery in Turkey likely to impact comparisons in the first half. Altogether, this results in a broadly stable outlook for total shipment growth subject to the usual variability in shipment timing and trade inventory movement as compared to a forecast total industry decline of around 2% for cigarettes and HDUs. led by combustibles We expect another strong year overall for price notwithstanding the impact of US first half comparisons. And for continued positive smoke-free mix. Taking all these elements into account, we forecast 2026 organic net revenue growth of five to 7%. We expect the same factors in addition to operating leverage and ongoing cost efficiencies to drive further robust margin expansion with projected organic operating income growth of seven to 9%. This includes continued strong investment behind our smoke-free portfolio. We are forecast”
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SEC filings for PM ↗ · Claim quote is verbatim from the 2025Q4 earnings call.