“Acknowledging this uncertainty and following a good start to the year in Q1, we are reconfirming the currency-neutral growth outlook we provided in February. We continue to expect broadly stable shipment volumes, organic net revenue growth of plus 5% to plus 7%.”

In context

“his brings me to our outlook for 2026. The Middle East conflict had a small impact on our business in the first quarter, which affected shipment to global travel retail and certain markets in the region for both combustible and HTUs. While we have observed increased energy prices and some disruption in energy supply in a number of markets, this has not, at this stage, translated into a discernible shift in consumer behavior. The situation remains uncertain in both duration and potential impact, and it is difficult to assess the broader implication for the consumer or the global cost environment. We have factored in some increases in transport, energy and other input costs. And we will continue to closely monitor development to assess the mid- to long-term impact across the main variables. Acknowledging this uncertainty and following a good start to the year in Q1, we are reconfirming the currency-neutral growth outlook we provided in February. We continue to expect broadly stable shipment volumes, organic net revenue growth of plus 5% to plus 7%. And organic operating income growth of plus 7% to plus 9% and currency-neutral adjusted diluted earnings per share growth of plus 7.5% to plus 9.5%. While exchange rates are volatile at present, we now forecast a currency tailwind of $0.25 at prevailing rates. This result in an updated adjusted diluted EPS forecast of $8.36 to $8.51 or plus 10.9% to 12.9% growth in dollar terms. For the second quarter, we expect continued strong performance from our international business and a sequential improvement in growth with HTU shipment volume of 40 billion to 42 billion slower HTU adjusted IMS growth due to the short-term impact of excise-driven pricing in Japan and a low single-digit cigarette shipment volume decline. We expect mid-single-digit organic net revenue growth and solid operating inco”