CLAIM #51041 · PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) · 2025Q4 earnings call · Feb 3, 2026 · due Dec 31, 2026
“Tax rate assumption, call it, 19% to 21%.”
Steven Winoker · CFO
How to check this claim
Look at: Effective tax rate, fiscal year 2026
It came true if: Full-year effective tax rate between 19% and 21%
Where: Company income statement / 10-K disclosure (effective tax rate) or Q4 2026 earnings release
In context
“be others taking share. Like which parts can actually turn the corner as we move through 2026? And then just on Tien-Tsin's question, is it fair that Enrique was involved in the process of sort of setting the expectation? So we shouldn't expect a big change after he comes on? Steven Winoker: Why don't I start with your questions around '26, then I'll hand it over to Jamie for the second part of your question around the branded and Board decision process, Sanjay. First, just running down the kind of P&L for a moment for '26 to give everybody that color. We talked about a slight decline in TM. Ex FBO, that's roughly flat, call it, about 3% increase in OpEx for the year. That gets you to non-GAAP EPS of this low single-digit decline to slightly positive. GAAP EPS of mid-single-digit decline. Tax rate assumption, call it, 19% to 21%. And then we provided the free cash flow story when you move over there. CapEx, about $1 billion or so. And then within all of that, OVAS, about flattish for the year, low single digit, by the way, in 1Q. TEs, at a bit of a lower rate versus '25, so called out about 88 bps or so versus 89 this year. TL, in line with '25, so call that about 7.5 bps of TPV. And creditor loan losses of about 2.5 bps, which is another 0.5 bp or so. So those are the numbers, Jamie, do you want to hit on the kind of how to think about branded and then the Board decision? Jamie Miller: Yes. With respect to branded, as Steve mentioned earlier, when we execute on these investments, we have included the cost of investments but we have assumed minimal in-year benefit from those. And when you look at the traction side”
Verify independently
SEC filings for PYPL ↗ · Claim quote is verbatim from the 2025Q4 earnings call.