“Though we still anticipate full year 2025 daily average trading volume to finish significantly higher than the 4Q '24 levels used for the initial financial scenario discussed back in January.”

In context

“uary forward interest rate curve, which called for a single 25 basis point cut to Fed funds, 6.5% annualized equity market appreciation and client trading volume generally consistent with mix in volumes observed during 4Q '24. Obviously, things have evolved quite a bit. So as part of our updated full year 2025 scenario, we have refreshed these inputs. The interest rate forward curve currently calls for two 25 basis point cuts before year-end. Markets rebounded from early April lows to finish the quarter strong. Therefore, applying an annualized 6.5% equity market return from June 30 levels implies full year S&P returns of approximately 9% for 2025. While we have observed sustained strength in client trading over the first 6 months, the updated scenario allows for some pullback in volumes. Though we still anticipate full year 2025 daily average trading volume to finish significantly higher than the 4Q '24 levels used for the initial financial scenario discussed back in January. From a trading mix perspective, we expect first half trends to generally persist, though macro factors and client preference will inform the ultimate mix. Assuming these updated factors and keeping in mind the current macro backdrop, we would expect total revenue growth of 18.5% to 19.5% for the full year 2025. The scenario assumes further reduction in high-cost funding at the banks to a level generally consistent with our long-term diversified funding profile. Full year net interest margin of 2.65% to 2.75%, which is up slightly from the January scenario due to the pace of paydowns, year-to-date transactional sweep cash trends and a recent pickup in securities lending activity. In this scenario, average 4Q NIM is expected to expand well into the 280 basis point range, and full year avera”