“On the business side, we expect to sustain our momentum from 2025 into the new year with strong new account formation and full year organic asset growth of around 5%.”

In context

“of our clients across a range of environments. Beyond that, we would seek to opportunistically return excess capital to stockholders in multiple forms. While the absolute level of capital return may vary over time, we believe capital return will continue to be a meaningful part of our through-the-cycle financial growth story. Transitioning to the setup for 2026. As is the case in any year, our financial outcomes will be influenced by a range of factors. Beginning with select macroeconomic factors, our 2026 financial scenario assumes interest rates follow the current forward curve expectations, which call for 225 basis point cuts to the Fed's target rate, bringing the funds rate down to 3.25% by the end of 2026 and 6.5% equity market returns, which is consistent with the long-term average. On the business side, we expect to sustain our momentum from 2025 into the new year with strong new account formation and full year organic asset growth of around 5%. At the same time, we will continue to deepen relationships with the 46 million total accounts and nearly $12 trillion of client assets already on Schwab's platform today. Increased investor utilization of our expanding set of solutions across trading, wealth, banking and more helps to further diversify our revenue as well as support franchise growth over time as clients with deeper relationships tend to consolidate more of their assets at Schwab. Specifically on trading activity, given the record volumes we supported last year, our 2026 scenario does allow for a slight pullback in volumes to roughly 7.4 million daily average trades for the full year. This level aligns more closely with volumes observed in early 2025. Under this scenario, we would expect total revenue growth of 9.5% to 10.”