CLAIM #58965 · UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) · 2025Q4 earnings call · Jan 27, 2026 · due Dec 31, 2026
“On membership pertaining to the risk based decline, the largest share of that membership decline is connected to our exchange business for 2026, where we continue to expect meaningful decline between now and the end of the year.”
Dan Schumacher · Executive
How to check this claim
Look at: UnitedHealth exchange (individual ACA) risk-based membership decline for fiscal 2026
It came true if: Exchange membership decline >= 500,000 for FY2026, and exceeding the decline attributable to non-exchange factors (general market, pricing posture, self-funded/level-funded migration)
Where: Company-disclosed membership figures (10-K / Q4 2026 earnings call / investor supplement)
In context
“u. Next question, please. Operator: And our next question comes from Scott Fidel with Goldman Sachs. Scott Fidel: I guess, I'll slip over to the commercial business. And interested if you could just provide us with the breakdown of the 1.3 million to 1.4 million commercial risk lives, that you're expecting to decline in 2026 how that breaks out between commercial group and then the exchanges. And then also just in terms of margins year over year progression for commercial group and the exchanges. What you're thinking about for '26. Obviously, we know that you're planning to to rebate the the the profits from the exchange business. Thanks. Stephen Hemsley: Thanks, Scott. Dan? Dan Schumacher: Yes, Scott. Thanks for the question. Addressing your membership first and then moving to to margin. On membership pertaining to the risk based decline, the largest share of that membership decline is connected to our exchange business for 2026, where we continue to expect meaningful decline between now and the end of the year. Beyond the exchange business, general market decline of risk based customers, our pricing posture supporting margin recovery, and continued deliberate migration to our self self funded, level funded small employer offerings. All contributing to a decline in risk based membership. So to parse that out specifically, 500,000 plus attributable to the exchange business, the remainder to those three factors. Moving to margins and first addressing, the exchange business, Over the course of the decade plus in which we have operated, in that market. It has never been a significant contributor of earnings for us. Our pricing posture for 2026 coming out of 2025 is going to return that market to a positive margin business for us. However, I would expect those margins in the exchange business for 2026”
Verify independently
SEC filings for UNH ↗ · Claim quote is verbatim from the 2025Q4 earnings call.