MAAT INDEX

CLAIM #58969 · UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) · 2025Q4 earnings call · Jan 27, 2026 · due Dec 31, 2026

Seeing elevated trend that elevated in the earlier part of 2025. Remains at those elevated levels. And our expectation is that will persist into 2026.

Tim Noel · CEO, UnitedHealthcare

PENDING
graded after results covering Dec 31, 2026 are reported

How to check this claim

Look at: Medical cost trend (utilization/cost trend) across UnitedHealthcare's Medicare, commercial, and Medicaid businesses, as disclosed in earnings commentary

It came true if: Reported 2026 medical cost trend remains at elevated levels comparable to 2025 (e.g., commercial trend near 11%, Medicare around 7.5%), not materially declining back toward pre-2025 lower levels

Where: Company earnings call commentary and investor presentations (UNH quarterly earnings releases, 2026)

In context

rent versus your expectations? Thanks. Timothy Noel: Yeah. Thanks, Anne, for the question. So you're correct. The 10% is a number. assumptions inside of Medicare. That reflects our utilization 2025 closed out around 7.5%. Which is what we've kinda reset our expectation through middle point of the year. So that really is, playing out well at a high level in terms of historical care utilization patterns in line with our RESET expectations. We have historically or recently talked about the commercial trend approaching 11%. I think that's probably still a good place to orientate to. Due to some of the nuance in the Medicaid market, where it's not quite as instructive to give a point estimate there, But I think you can just think about the themes really being similar across all the businesses. Seeing elevated trend that elevated in the earlier part of 2025. Remains at those elevated levels. And our expectation is that will persist into 2026. Thanks, Tim. I think we have time for maybe just one more question or two. Because we're gonna try to wrap it up at eight. So next question, please. Operator: And our next question comes from Erin Wright with Morgan Stanley. Erin Wilson Wright: Great, thanks. So it seems like you're progressing according to plan with the Optum turnaround, but has there been any surprises that have come out of some of the initiatives there, especially at OptumCare? And just I think you're still saying that the long term margins target, 6% to 8%, is still intact. I just want to confirm that. And then just in light of the rate notice and policies, top of mind, how are you thinking about this administration support of value based care initiatives and they integrated, you know, Optum offering. And you mentione

Verify independently

SEC filings for UNH · Claim quote is verbatim from the 2025Q4 earnings call.