“full year 2025 revenue is expected to decline 2.3% year-over-year driven by an ADV reduction of about 8.5%, partially offset by strong expected revenue per piece growth of approximately 6%, and we will wrap the newly on-boarded USPS air cargo business.”

In context

“macro, S&P Global Forecast Global GDP growth of 2.5% compared to 2024. Real exports and global industrial production are both expected to increase around 2% year-over-year. In the U.S., manufacturing is expected to turn positive for the first quarter of 2025 after seven quarters of negative year-over-year growth, and the consumer is expected to remain resilient. Moving to our 2025 financial outlook, for the full year 2025 on a consolidated basis, revenue is expected to be approximately $89 billion, and operating margin is expected to be approximately 10.8%. Our guidance for 2025 does not reflect any significant potential global trade implications due to changes in tariffs. Now let me give you a little color on the segment. Looking at U.S. domestic, as a result of the actions we're taking, full year 2025 revenue is expected to decline 2.3% year-over-year driven by an ADV reduction of about 8.5%, partially offset by strong expected revenue per piece growth of approximately 6%, and we will wrap the newly on-boarded USPS air cargo business. We expect the intended volume and revenue declines to accelerate as we progress throughout the year. Full year operating margin is expected to be approximately 8.8%, an increase of 130 basis points compared to 2024. And to provide a little shape for the first quarter, which has one fewer operating day compared to the first quarter of 2024 we expect revenue to increase nearly 1% year-over-year, despite ADV being down approximately 4% and we expect to expand operating margin by approximately 140 basis points year-over-year. Moving to the international segment, we expect mid-single digit ADV growth throughout the year, but with lower demand related surcharges than we've seen in prior years. For the year, we expect 2025 revenues to increase approximately 2.5% year-over-year, with an operating”