CLAIM #60543 · United Parcel Service Inc (UPS) · 2025Q4 earnings call · Jan 27, 2026 · due Jun 30, 2026
“The way to think about it is really about a 100 basis points of pressure in the first half that will release in the second half, most of that pressure coming in the first quarter.”
Brian Dykes · CFO
In context
“timing lag between us taking the cost out and realizing the benefits in the P&L along with volume. So as we go through the quarter, we are going to have a step down in the Amazon volume in the first quarter. We are taking actions in order to right-size the variable cost, semi-variable cost, and fixed cost, but there will be a lag in that that will hit the second quarter. So you do see pressure from three things in the first quarter. The drawdown of the Amazon volume and the timing of the cost out. The transition cost of moving Groundsaver back to the USPS will go through the first half of the year. We will see benefit come through in the second half of the year. And then as I mentioned before, this incremental MD-11 cost. That's going to put margin pressure on domestic in the first half. The way to think about it is really about a 100 basis points of pressure in the first half that will release in the second half, most of that pressure coming in the first quarter. In our international business, you have a similar dynamic, where we've got pressure from de minimis in the third quarter and fourth quarter, that's going to roll into Q1. Additionally, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we had a lot of pull forward in 2025, so we've got a really tough comp. That's not only going to put pressure on the margin as we saw in the fourth quarter, but also push down profit in international. We expect profit to be down about 30% in the first quarter and then recover as we go throughout the year. In the second half, we will look at a very different business. As I articulated, SMB and enterprise will be growing mid-single digits. We will be in a much more efficient cost structure. We will still be driving good mid-single digit rep per piece improvement through”
Verify independently
SEC filings for UPS ↗ · Claim quote is verbatim from the 2025Q4 earnings call.