CLAIM #60544 · United Parcel Service Inc (UPS) · 2025Q4 earnings call · Jan 27, 2026 · due Mar 31, 2026
“We expect profit to be down about 30% in the first quarter and then recover as we go throughout the year.”
Brian Dykes · CFO
In context
“. We will see benefit come through in the second half of the year. And then as I mentioned before, this incremental MD-11 cost. That's going to put margin pressure on domestic in the first half. The way to think about it is really about a 100 basis points of pressure in the first half that will release in the second half, most of that pressure coming in the first quarter. In our international business, you have a similar dynamic, where we've got pressure from de minimis in the third quarter and fourth quarter, that's going to roll into Q1. Additionally, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we had a lot of pull forward in 2025, so we've got a really tough comp. That's not only going to put pressure on the margin as we saw in the fourth quarter, but also push down profit in international. We expect profit to be down about 30% in the first quarter and then recover as we go throughout the year. In the second half, we will look at a very different business. As I articulated, SMB and enterprise will be growing mid-single digits. We will be in a much more efficient cost structure. We will still be driving good mid-single digit rep per piece improvement through our pricing, and our cost per piece will normalize as we right-size the driver staffing, realize the benefits of automation, and we will be exiting at a healthy double-digit margin that will take us into 2027. David Vernon: Alright. Thanks, guys. Matthew: Thank you. Your next question is coming from Tom Wadewitz from UBS. Your line is live. Tom Wadewitz: Yeah. Good morning. Wanted to see if you could give some thoughts on just kind of like the algorithm post the glide down with Amazon. Do we think about it as for domestic pac”
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SEC filings for UPS ↗ · Claim quote is verbatim from the 2025Q4 earnings call.