“Underpinning our expectations are a series of key assumptions, including using the recent forward rate curve, which includes between 1 and 2 Federal Reserve rate cuts, given our modestly asset-sensitive position, this will be a slight headwind to net interest income.”

In context

“. We had $47.7 billion of net interest income in 2024, which was within the expected range we provided at the start of last year. Net interest income declined sequentially for the first three quarters of the year before growing modestly in the fourth quarter. Our fourth quarter annualized net interest income is $47 billion or approximately $700 million lower than full year 2024. Our current expectation is that full year 2025 net interest income will be approximately 1% to 3% higher than full year 2024 or approximately 3% to 5% higher than the annualized fourth quarter 2024 net interest income. We expect net interest income will be relatively stable in the first half of 2025, which includes the impact from two fewer days in the first quarter with more growth in the second half of the year. Underpinning our expectations are a series of key assumptions, including using the recent forward rate curve, which includes between 1 and 2 Federal Reserve rate cuts, given our modestly asset-sensitive position, this will be a slight headwind to net interest income. Average loans are expected to grow modestly from fourth quarter of 2024 to fourth quarter of 2025 driven by anticipated growth in the Corporate Investment Bank markets group and CIB banking as well as anticipated growth in our auto and credit card portfolios. Deposits in all our deposit gathering businesses are expected to grow modestly, which would allow us to further reduce higher-cost market funding. Reinvestment of lower-yielding securities into higher yielding assets, our expectation also reflects the benefits from the actions we took in the second half of 2024 to reposition the investment portfolio. And trading-related net interest income is expected to be higher due to lower interest rates which would largely be offset by lower trading-related noninterest income. As we've done in p”