“We had originally assumed some growth in noninterest bearing deposits, but we now expect them to be relatively stable, which is a negative to our original expectation.”

In context

“we expect stronger growth in the second half of the year compared to the first half. We still expect net interest income, excluding markets, to be approximately $48 billion for the full year, Looking at the key drivers, starting with loans, as I highlighted, average loans in second quarter grew 12% from a year ago. So year over year, average loan growth in the fourth quarter will likely be higher than the mid single digit increase we assumed in our outlook, back in January. This is a positive versus our original expectation. We have also successfully grown interest bearing deposits which is a good thing since these higher balances help us deepen relationships with our customers, And as I mentioned earlier, it gives us the opportunity to attract non interest bearing deposits in the future We had originally assumed some growth in noninterest bearing deposits, but we now expect them to be relatively stable, which is a negative to our original expectation. Interest rates are currently not a significant factor in or out of this year. While interest rates have been higher than we expected in our original outlook, which benefits NII excluding markets, the rate cuts we had originally assumed were expected later in the year so the change is only a modest impact on this year's net interest income expectations. In terms of markets, NII, as we all know, it is always hard to forecast. Higher short term rates typically result in lower markets NII, but as of now, we still expect market NII to be approximately $2 billion in 2026. So putting this all together, while the drivers have moved around since our original outlook, which is always the case, our current outlook is still $50 billion plus or minus of NII for 2026. Regarding our expense outlook, we”