CLAIM #6872 · American Tower Corp (AMT) · 2024Q3 earnings call · Oct 29, 2024 · due Dec 31, 2027
“And that's consistent with our long-term guide of at least 5% from '23 to '27, because if you think about '26 and '27, at that point, we're through the spread churn.”
Steven Vondran · CEO
How to check this claim
Look at: Organic tenant billings / leasing revenue growth rate (long-term CAGR guide, 2023-2027), as reported
It came true if: Cumulative/average annual organic growth rate from 2023 to 2027 >= 5%
Where: Company earnings releases and investor presentations (2027 10-K and Q4 2027 earnings call, compared against 2023 baseline)
In context
“. There's still some moving pieces in it. But if you look at the, in particular, the US business, we are hearing a lot of good conversation from our customers about the beginnings of the densification phase. And that's right in line with what we thought was going to happen. And so if you think about next year, in terms of the leasing in the US, we still have this final tranche of Sprint churn that's hitting in October this year that will weigh on the US a bit. And so when you kind of couple that with the kind of leasing environment that we're seeing, what's contractually already committed growth under our comprehensive MLAs, which does tick down just a little bit next year, that's most likely you're going to see us kind of in that mid-4s range in terms of the US growth rate for next year. And that's consistent with our long-term guide of at least 5% from '23 to '27, because if you think about '26 and '27, at that point, we're through the spread churn. And so if you look at 2025 through that lens, we still have about 100 basis points of churn coming in from that final Sprint churn tranche. So if you normalize that out, that's kind of be the mid-5s for next year. So that's kind of the way to think about sizing it and exactly where in that mid-4s range we're going to be, we're not sure yet. We do have one customer that's not uncomprehensive. So there's some volume-driven things with that. We also are hearing some interest from customers in new colocations that would be outside of our comprehensive MLAs. We don't know if that's going to fall in the early part of '25 or the later part of '25 or '26. We're still trying to figure that out. There's a few moving pieces there but directionally, you can think about it kind of being in that mid-4s”
Verify independently
SEC filings for AMT ↗ · Claim quote is verbatim from the 2024Q3 earnings call.