CLAIM #710 · Toll Brothers Inc (TOL) · 2022Q1 earnings call · Feb 23, 2022 · due Oct 31, 2022
“If we hit our delivery guidance in Q2, 63% of our full year deliveries to hit the midpoint of guidance would occur in the second half.”
Douglas Yearley · CEO
How to check this claim
Look at: Home deliveries, second half of fiscal 2022 as a percentage of full-year fiscal 2022 deliveries
It came true if: Second-half fiscal 2022 deliveries >= 63% of full-year fiscal 2022 deliveries (approx; consistent with hitting full-year guidance midpoint)
Where: Company quarterly earnings releases (Q3 and Q4 FY2022) and 10-K disclosing home deliveries by quarter
In context
“Yearley: Sorry, 10,000 to go. I misunderstood. Sorry. Martin Connor: Well, we delivered 1,929 in the first quarter. Douglas Yearley: Got it. To build 10,000 to go to deliver. Got it. Yes. I think that the reason for that range, it's not sales. We're selling in 2023. And we're very -- I said last quarter that the next home sold by us in December had the highest margin we've seen in this cycle. I can repeat that comment now 3 months later that the next home sold today has the highest margin we've seen in this quarter because we continue to raise prices more than costs are going up. But that's a '23 comment. As to '22, it's supply chain. We missed deliveries in the first quarter. We've given you guidance in the second quarter on deliveries. Obviously, we have a lot to do in the second half. If we hit our delivery guidance in Q2, 63% of our full year deliveries to hit the midpoint of guidance would occur in the second half. Our 10-year average for second half deliveries is right at 60%, and we've studied the construction status of the backlog. And it is further along than it has been historically. So we are comfortable that we can get to that 63% for those reasons. But we think it's prudent right now to keep that 750-unit window because of the environment we're building in. There are some quick move-in spec homes that will still need to be sold. But with the market conditions, I think that's a very, very low risk of impacting the ultimate delivery number. I think the conservatism right now is simply based upon the production environment we're living in. Deepa Raghavan: That's helpful color. Another broad one for me. You addressed a little bit in your prepared remarks, Doug. There is a bare narrative out ther”
Verify independently
SEC filings for TOL ↗ · Claim quote is verbatim from the 2022Q1 earnings call.