CLAIM #780 · Toll Brothers Inc (TOL) · 2022Q4 earnings call · Dec 7, 2022 · due Dec 31, 2024
“With elevated spec demand and as cycle times and costs come down, we plan to thoughtfully replenish our supply of specs in select markets to generate additional deliveries in late '23 and throughout 2024.”
Douglas Yearley · CEO
How to check this claim
Look at: Spec home inventory/supply and spec-related deliveries, as disclosed by Toll Brothers
It came true if: Spec home count (spec homes in production/completed) higher than late-2022 level, with increased spec deliveries reported during late 2023 through 2024
Where: Company quarterly earnings releases and calls (spec home inventory and delivery mix commentary, 10-K/10-Q)
In context
“d balanced approach. In recent quarters, our delivery times for to-be-built homes has been extended in some cases, up to 16 months, which was not acceptable to many buyers. Additionally, building costs have been elevated due to the spike in inflation over the past two years. In that environment, it did not make sense to aggressively drop prices. Thankfully, quota delivery times have started to come down as we work through our backlog and as trades free up capacity in this slower market. We are also beginning to see some building costs come down beyond just lumber, which continues to steadily drop. The opportunity to build faster and at a lower cost may be here. Extended delivery times for our to-be-built homes have also resulted in the market for our spec homes being stronger than normal. With elevated spec demand and as cycle times and costs come down, we plan to thoughtfully replenish our supply of specs in select markets to generate additional deliveries in late '23 and throughout 2024. Community count in '23 and '24 will also drive results. As part of our strategy, we are timing community openings to take advantage of better seasonal opportunities. We are positioning for the spring selling season, where there is typically more demand even in tougher times. We are going back to opening our new communities in perfect white glove condition with decorated model homes, reflecting the traditional way Toll has always done it. That did not occur as often during the market frenzy that followed the pandemic where we often opened early without roads or models. During COVID, you could sell out of the back of a station wagon with success. That is no longer the case. As an industry, we probably will not have a better sense of the depth and length of this downturn until we are further”
Verify independently
SEC filings for TOL ↗ · Claim quote is verbatim from the 2022Q4 earnings call.