“Taking all of this into account, in 2023, you should expect to see provision expense move back towards more of a steady state relative to the size of our loan balances and Card Member receivables for the first time since we adopted CECL in early 2020.”

In context

“no longer have any of these pandemic-driven reserves remaining on our balance sheet. Moving to reserves on Slide 11, you can see that we ended 2022 with $4 billion of reserves, representing 2.4% of our total loans in Card Member receivables. This reserve rate is about 50 basis points below the levels we had pre-pandemic or day 1 CECL reflecting the continued premiumization of our portfolio and the strong credit performance we have seen. We view this consolidated reserve rate as more comparable to day 1 CECL than the individual loans and receivables rates. Because as we talked a bit last quarter, our charge products in many instances now have some embedded lending functionality. We expect this reserve rate to increase a bit as we move through 2023, but to remain below pre-pandemic levels. Taking all of this into account, in 2023, you should expect to see provision expense move back towards more of a steady state relative to the size of our loan balances and Card Member receivables for the first time since we adopted CECL in early 2020. Given the combination of our strong loan growth and the unusually low level by historical standards of provision expense in 2022, I would expect a significant year-over-year increase in provision expense. Moving next to revenue on Slide 12, total revenues were up 17% year-over-year in the fourth quarter and up 25% for the full year. This is well above our original expectations, driven by the successful execution of our strategy and is part of which strengthens our confidence in our long-term aspirations. Before I get into more details about our largest revenue drivers in the next few slides, I would note that you see a 200 basis point spread between our FX-adjusted revenue growth and reported revenue growth for this quarter. While this is less of an impact from the strong dollar than what”