CLAIM #8478 · American Express Company (AXP) · 2024Q2 earnings call · Jul 19, 2024 · due Dec 31, 2024
“And to your point, the direction we're providing now is that it's going to be like stable at about the level you saw in Q2 at around 2.1%.”
Christophe Le Caillec · CFO
In context
“up from here. And it seems like your view has now shifted to a more stable outlook over the rest of the year. Can you just maybe talk about what you're seeing from your core customers' health and maybe what's driving some more confidence in the outlook there? And then should we also be thinking about a stable reserve rate from here versus, I think you were talking about more of an uptick over the rest of the year as well previously? Thank you. Christophe Le Caillec: Yeah. Hey, good morning, Jeff. So you're right, we have changed a little bit the way we think about credit write-offs for the balance of the year. And we are at the beginning of Q3 now, we had good visibility in terms of what's going to write-off in Q3 and Q4. So we can be more confident in terms of providing a direction here. And to your point, the direction we're providing now is that it's going to be like stable at about the level you saw in Q2 at around 2.1%. Now, I need to say this specifically to address your question on the reserve and how to think about it for the balance of the year. A big driver of the reserve is going to be the delinquency levels, right. Those card members that are showing signs of -- signals of stress early on. The delinquency improvement in the quarter, there is seasonality in that improvement, right. And so we expect that delinquency rate is just going to probably tick-up a bit in the balance of the year and that will drive a bit of incremental reserve together with the volume growth that we expect to see. But from a reserve rate standpoint, we are 2.8%. It's a good reference point for what to expect for the balance of year. It might increase a little bit. We'll see. It's hard to predict where CECL is just going to l”
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SEC filings for AXP ↗ · Claim quote is verbatim from the 2024Q2 earnings call.