“During 2026, we expect roughly $12 billion to $15 billion in combined mortgage backed securities and mortgage loans to roll off quarterly, and those will be replaced with new assets at 150 to 200 basis points higher in yield or they'll allow us to pay down expensive short-term debt.”

In context

“ed in the curve. On that basis, a 100 basis point decline would decrease NII growth over the next 12 months by $2 billion. And if rates went up 100 basis points, NII growth would benefit additionally by approximately $700 million. With regard to a forward view of NII, let me give you a few thoughts. At Investor Day in November, we indicated our expectation that we would see 5% to 7% growth in net interest income in 2026 compared to 2025, and that's still our belief today based on the latest interest rate curve, which includes 2 rate cuts in 2026. To reiterate our expectation from Investor Day, we expect good core NII performance from loan and deposit growth that will additionally benefit from sizable fixed asset repricing and cash flow swap repricing to drive the 5% to 7% NII improvement. During 2026, we expect roughly $12 billion to $15 billion in combined mortgage backed securities and mortgage loans to roll off quarterly, and those will be replaced with new assets at 150 to 200 basis points higher in yield or they'll allow us to pay down expensive short-term debt. For Q1 NII expectations I would use Q4 as a base after excluding about $100 million or so for the shift in Global Markets client activity that I referenced, that is likely to be offset in MMSA. So simply a change in geography that's revenue neutral. I'd also note, we have 2 less days of interest in Q1 than Q4. And of course, we had a 25 basis point rate cut in December. Still we expect Q1 NII will grow roughly 7% from Q1 '25 based on the assumptions on Slide 18, in line with our full year guidance. Okay. So let's turn to expense and we'll use Slide 10 for our discussion. This quarter, we reported $17.4 billion in expense, up a little less than 4% year-over-year. When combined with our 7% revenue growth, this good expense management allowed us to generate more than 300 basis points of oper”