CLAIM #16592 · ConocoPhillips (COP) · 2026Q1 earnings call · Apr 30, 2026

“So we could possibly see, from here, inventory draws really start to accelerate.”

Andy O'Brien · CFO

How to check this claim

Look at: Global commercial oil inventory draws (change in global oil inventories, barrels per day or total stock levels)

It came true if: Rate of global inventory draw in June-July period is greater than the rate observed in the preceding months (April-May)

Where: IEA Oil Market Report or EIA global petroleum inventory data

Knowable after: 2026-07-31

In context

“and the ongoing SPR releases that have been announced will certainly help through the May–July timeframe. But I think it is really important for people to understand that the brunt of the supply shortfall is currently being absorbed by refinery run cuts and demand curtailments. Now, if you include the Persian Gulf refineries that have been damaged, the total global refinery run cuts right now probably amount to around 8 million barrels a day. As we look forward from here, we think the biggest challenge we are about to face is that the market had a bit of a grace period initially when the tankers that left the Persian Gulf in late February were still on the water. Now all of those have reached their destination, and the impacts of the lost supply are going to start to become more apparent. So we could possibly see, from here, inventory draws really start to accelerate. You have already seen that governments in over a dozen countries are implementing policies to ration or otherwise reduce demand in advance of physical shortages. Given those factors, we are downgrading our view of global oil demand to be flat year over year with probably a bit more risk to the downside if the conflict goes on. One final point I would make is, despite efforts that are ongoing to manage demand, we are going to start to see some import-dependent countries potentially start to face critical shortages as we get into the June–July timeframe. I will stop there and let Ryan add a bit more. Ryan M. Lance: Maybe, Scott, how are people acting? I think people are watching pretty closely to see what happens, maybe a little bit of short-cycle investments. I am sure that will come up in”

Verify independently

SEC filings for COP ↗ · Quote is verbatim from the 2026Q1 earnings call.