CLAIM #16594 · ConocoPhillips (COP) · 2026Q1 earnings call · Apr 30, 2026

“One final point I would make is, despite efforts that are ongoing to manage demand, we are going to start to see some import-dependent countries potentially start to face critical shortages as we get into the June–July timeframe.”

Andy O'Brien · CFO

How to check this claim

Look at: Reports of critical oil/fuel shortages in import-dependent countries

It came true if: At least one import-dependent country is reported (by IEA, EIA, Reuters, or national government sources) to be experiencing critical fuel/oil shortages between June and July 2026

Where: IEA Oil Market Report, EIA international energy news, or major news coverage (Reuters/Bloomberg) on fuel shortages

Knowable after: 2026-07-31

In context

“t to around 8 million barrels a day. As we look forward from here, we think the biggest challenge we are about to face is that the market had a bit of a grace period initially when the tankers that left the Persian Gulf in late February were still on the water. Now all of those have reached their destination, and the impacts of the lost supply are going to start to become more apparent. So we could possibly see, from here, inventory draws really start to accelerate. You have already seen that governments in over a dozen countries are implementing policies to ration or otherwise reduce demand in advance of physical shortages. Given those factors, we are downgrading our view of global oil demand to be flat year over year with probably a bit more risk to the downside if the conflict goes on. One final point I would make is, despite efforts that are ongoing to manage demand, we are going to start to see some import-dependent countries potentially start to face critical shortages as we get into the June–July timeframe. I will stop there and let Ryan add a bit more. Ryan M. Lance: Maybe, Scott, how are people acting? I think people are watching pretty closely to see what happens, maybe a little bit of short-cycle investments. I am sure that will come up in our call with the capital. We are just trying to maintain the efficiency gains that we have in the Lower 48, and we will not be drilled out of some of our OBO activity. We are trying to look longer term as well, as Andy said, assess the supply and the demand fundamentals. I think at a minimum the floor probably is going to have to raise up a little bit at least relative to where we were before the conflict started. Recall we had a mid-cycle WTI price of about $65, and we believe that floor is probably going to come up. We are trying to assess right now”

Verify independently

SEC filings for COP ↗ · Quote is verbatim from the 2026Q1 earnings call.