“We continue to expect Consumer Group revenue growth of 8% to 12% long term.”

Why this grade

Before the long-term commitment came due, management revised the Consumer Group long-term growth target down from 8%-12% to 6%-10%, a reduction in the bar itself.

Deviation basis: range shift in growth-rate targets, not a single arithmetic gap

In context

“ge revenue per return, which we expect to increase this year, driven by a mix shift to TurboTax Live and our premier offering used by investors as well as fewer free customers. As a result of the weaker IRS returns, we now expect total customer growth of 1%, including TurboTax Online paying customer growth of 8% this year. We expect the base of customers paying us nothing in our commercial-free offering to decline 11% this year to just over 13 million from over 14 million last year. This was driven by onetime stimulus filers that did not return this season, approximately 30% of whom we’re paying customers. We now expect Consumer Group revenue growth of approximately 10% in fiscal 2022 versus our prior guidance of 10% to 11%, reflecting the decline of total IRS returns I mentioned earlier. We continue to expect Consumer Group revenue growth of 8% to 12% long term. Turning to the ProConnect Group, revenue grew 10% in Q3, reflecting a shift in the timing of the IRS tax filing window year-over-year. For the full year, we now expect ProConnect Group revenue growth of 4% to 5%. In the Small Business and Self-Employed Group, revenue grew 42% during the quarter or 20% on an organic basis, excluding $257 million in revenue from Mailchimp. Online Ecosystem revenue grew 67% or 31% excluding MailChimp. With the aim of being the source of truth for small businesses, our strategic focus within the Small Business and Self-Employed Group is threefold: grow the core, connect the ecosystem and expand globally. First, we continue to focus on growing the core. QuickBooks Online Accounting revenue grew 32% in fiscal Q3, driven mainly by higher effective prices, custom”