“we're anticipating 2025 CapEx will range between $4 billion and $5 billion, near the middle of the long-run expectation Michael outlined earlier this year.”

Why this grade

Management revised CapEx guidance from near the middle of the $4-5 billion range down to near the lower end of that same range, a downward revision in planned capital spending before the year came due.

Deviation basis: midpoint-to-low-end shift within a stated range; no precise figures given to compute a fair percentage

In context

“ts that meet our strategic and financial criteria. Second, we look to support the dividend and build on our record of growing the dividend annually, something we've done since 1971. And finally, we look to return any excess cash beyond those first 2 uses by repurchasing shares over time within the constraints of our middle A credit ratings. Regarding the first priority, we've invested just under $2 billion in CapEx year-to-date, and with updated project timing, we expect our full year CapEx will be near the low end of our guidance range for the year at $3 billion or slightly lower. As Brian mentioned, we have a robust pipeline of new stores and remodels, along with supply chain and technology projects that we expect will generate strong returns over time. Based on expected project timing, we're anticipating 2025 CapEx will range between $4 billion and $5 billion, near the middle of the long-run expectation Michael outlined earlier this year. Regarding the second priority, we paid dividends of $516 million in the third quarter, up from $507 million a year ago. And finally, we deployed $354 million to retire about 2.4 million of our shares in Q3. Given our cash position and our expectations going forward, we expect to continue repurchasing shares in Q4 as well. Following my commentary on the quarter with some comments on after-tax ROIC, which measures the quality of our capital investments over time. In the third quarter, our trailing 12-month after-tax ROIC was 15.9%, 2 percentage points higher than a year ago. While a mid-teens after-tax return is quite strong, our long-term plans anticipate further expansion of this metric into the high teens over time. Now I want to move to our expectations for Q4. As Brian mentioned, we'r”