78.2 /100
BlackRock Inc (BLK)
FINANCIAL SERVICES · 50 verified grades · ▼ SandbagsBIASMedian signed deviation across numeric graded claims. Sandbags: outcomes land favorable to guidance. Overpromises: the opposite. Needs at least 6 numeric claims.
What management is on the hook for (229)
hedged · expects · high conviction
2026 Q3 (16)16 open
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.growthCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“We reiterated our low to mid-teens ACV target, from what we see in the pipeline and some of these external catalysts like regulatory and the markets, we think it's a great environment for Aladdin, Preqin and eFront.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Full-year ACV (Annual Contract Value) growth for Aladdin/technology services segment
Full-year ACV growth between 10% and 14.9% (low to mid-teens) SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany quarterly earnings materials / 10-K disclosure on technology services ACV growthKNOWABLE AFTER2027-01-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.growthCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“At our Investor Day in 2025, we talked about how our investment performance, differentiated deal flow, client relationships, would support a target of $400 billion in gross fundraising from 2025 through 2030.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Cumulative gross fundraising for the relevant business line, 2025 through 2030
Cumulative gross fundraising >= $400 billion SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany-disclosed fundraising figures (10-K/annual report, Investor Day updates, or earnings call commentary)KNOWABLE AFTER2030-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.marginsCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“As I've said before, we've run the company at 47%, I don't see 45% or 46% as a ceiling.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Adjusted operating margin, quarterly or annual as reported
Adjusted operating margin >= 47% in at least one reported period SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany quarterly earnings release / income statement (adjusted operating margin disclosure)KNOWABLE AFTER2030-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.marginsCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“I don't see this quarter's margin as a ceiling.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
BlackRock adjusted operating margin, quarterly
Adjusted operating margin in a subsequent quarter > 45.9% SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany quarterly earnings release / adjusted operating margin disclosureKNOWABLE AFTER2027-07-15
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.growthCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“Our 2030 goal of reaching over 30% of revenue from private markets and technology that we laid out at Investor Day last year, that goal of 30% of revenue from private markets and technology is aimed to dampen that effect and power more steady double-digit EPS growth and margin expansion.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Private markets and technology revenue as a percentage of total revenue
Private markets and technology revenue > 30% of total company revenue SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany-disclosed revenue mix (10-K / Investor Day materials / earnings call commentary)KNOWABLE AFTER2030-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.marginsCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“We continue to target a 45% or greater adjusted operating margin with our margin on recurring fee-related earnings running higher.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Adjusted operating margin, quarterly/annual as reported
Adjusted operating margin >= 45.0% SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany-reported adjusted operating margin (earnings release / 10-K/10-Q supplemental financial data)KNOWABLE AFTER2026-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.capital allocationCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“At present, based on our capital spending plans for the year and subject to market and other conditions, we anticipate repurchasing at least $550 million of shares per quarter going forward, higher than our previous guidance communicated in January.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Quarterly share repurchases (dollar amount)
Quarterly share repurchases >= $550 million SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany-disclosed share repurchase figures (10-Q cash flow statement / earnings release capital return commentary)KNOWABLE AFTER2026-10-15
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.growthCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“We remain committed to low to mid-teens ACV growth over the long term.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Aladdin/Technology Services ACV (Annual Contract Value) growth rate, year-over-year
ACV growth rate between 10% and 15% (low to mid-teens) SourceWHERE TO FIND ITmanagement commentary / company-disclosed ACV growth metric in quarterly earnings release or callKNOWABLE AFTER2027-07-15
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“As part of our 2030 plan, we're aiming to make this a $500 million revenue business at BlackRock.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Annual revenue generated by BlackRock's digital assets business
Digital assets segment/business revenue >= $500 million (annualized) SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany disclosures / management commentary (10-K, investor day materials, earnings calls) on digital assets revenueKNOWABLE AFTER2030-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Overall, fundraising is closed and notified about $22 billion. We expect that to continue to drive and accelerate.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Cumulative fundraising closed and notified for private markets/infra-debt strategies referenced (insurance-related and related mandates), as disclosed by management
Cumulative disclosed fundraising total >= $22 billion (i.e., continues to grow from the $22 billion baseline) by year-end 2026 SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany management commentary on Q3/Q4 2026 earnings calls or investor presentations (BLK)KNOWABLE AFTER2026-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We expect this to continue to accelerate, not just for obviously insurance companies, but throughout the world.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
BlackRock's private markets debt/infrastructure financing mandates closed with insurance companies and other institutional clients (as disclosed in management commentary)
Management reports on a subsequent call that high-grade/infra debt mandate volume with insurers and other sectors exceeds the ~$10 billion year-to-date 2026 pace cited, i.e., cumulative or annualized run-rate is higher than the comparable prior-year period SourceWHERE TO FIND ITManagement commentary on BlackRock quarterly earnings calls (Q3 2026 through Q2 2027)KNOWABLE AFTER2027-07-15
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.marginsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We'll see margin on the FRE side driving higher towards the levels of the best-in-class private markets names, north of 50%.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
FRE margin (fee-related earnings margin), as reported
FRE margin > 50% SourceWHERE TO FIND ITcompany-disclosed FRE margin in quarterly earnings release/supplement or 10-KKNOWABLE AFTER2030-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We expect two iShares ETFs to be available as investment options later this year.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Number of iShares ETFs launched as investment options referenced in the claim
At least 2 such iShares ETFs available/launched by 2026-12-31 SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany press releases / iShares product listings / management commentary on Q4 2026 callKNOWABLE AFTER2026-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.capital allocationCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Through our planned dividend and share repurchases, we expect to return over $5.7 billion to shareholders this year, which is a 16% increase over 2025.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Total capital returned to shareholders via dividends and share repurchases, fiscal year 2026
Total shareholder returns > $5.7 billion for fiscal year 2026 SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany-disclosed capital return figures (10-K / Q4 2026 earnings release, cash flow statement or capital management summary)KNOWABLE AFTER2027-02-15
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.costsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“After annualizing for the impact of HPS and Preqin, we continue to expect a mid-single-digit percentage increase in full-year G&A.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Full-year G&A expense growth percentage (as adjusted), annualized for HPS and Preqin impact
Full-year G&A increase between 4% and 6% year-over-year SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany as-adjusted financial results (quarterly earnings release / 10-K)KNOWABLE AFTER2027-01-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.otherCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We continue to estimate that 25% is a reasonable projected tax run rate for the remainder of 2026.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Effective tax rate (as adjusted), quarterly
Effective tax rate between 23.5% and 26.5% for Q3 2026 and Q4 2026 SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany earnings release / as-adjusted financial results tables (Q3 and Q4 2026)KNOWABLE AFTER2027-01-31
2026 Q2 (15)15 open
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.growthCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“Our 2030 strategy is to drive organic base fee growth at 5%+ through a broad public and private markets platform, and our track record shows we can more consistently generate 6% to 8%.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Organic base fee growth rate, annual, as reported by BlackRock
Organic base fee growth >= 5% (target), with reference to management's stated more consistent historical range of 6%-8% SourceWHERE TO FIND ITBlackRock quarterly earnings release / 10-K disclosure of organic base fee growthKNOWABLE AFTER2030-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.marginsCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“We have run the company at 47%, so I do not see 45% or 46% as a ceiling.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
BlackRock fully burdened operating margin (GAAP operating margin), quarterly or trailing period
Operating margin > 46% in at least one reported quarter SourceWHERE TO FIND ITBlackRock quarterly earnings release / income statement (operating margin disclosure)KNOWABLE AFTER2027-04-14
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.marginsCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“As I laid out at our 2025 Investor Day, we continue to target a 45% or greater adjusted operating margin, with our margin on recurring fee-related earnings running higher.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Adjusted operating margin, fiscal year
Adjusted operating margin >= 45% SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany quarterly/annual earnings release and 10-K (non-GAAP reconciliation, adjusted operating margin)KNOWABLE AFTER2026-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.growthCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“We think some of this shakeout in credit is good for our organic base fee growth profile, alongside the structural growers we are already confident in.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Organic base fee growth rate (annualized), as reported quarterly
Organic base fee growth rate in FY2026 quarters exceeds the rate reported in the prior comparable periods (i.e., directional improvement/acceleration) SourceWHERE TO FIND ITBlackRock quarterly earnings release / management commentary on organic base fee growthKNOWABLE AFTER2026-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.growthCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“We think we can confidently and consistently deliver 6% to 7% growth from our structural growth segments, with higher outcomes when markets are especially supportive or when clients rotate into higher-fee segments in any quarter.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Organic base fee/asset growth rate from structural growth segments (as reported/discussed by BlackRock)
Annualized organic growth from structural growth segments >= 6% SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany-disclosed organic growth commentary (quarterly earnings release / call, e.g., 10-Q/10-K and earnings call transcripts)KNOWABLE AFTER2027-04-14
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.growthCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“We have visibility on strong future fundraising and deployment across multiple dimensions of our private credit platform.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Private credit platform fundraising and deployment (AUM inflows/net new business), including insurance mandate deployments and HPS/HLEND subscriptions
Private credit net inflows/deployment in subsequent quarters (through Q4 2026) higher than the prior-year comparable period, i.e., year-over-year growth > 0% SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany-disclosed quarterly earnings materials and management commentary (BlackRock 10-Q/10-K and quarterly earnings call, private markets/alternatives segment disclosures)KNOWABLE AFTER2026-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.growthCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“We said that we believe that active ETFs can be a $500 million or greater revenue generator by 2030, and we are already more than halfway there.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Annual revenue generated by active ETF platform
Active ETF revenue >= $500 million SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany disclosures / management commentary (10-K, earnings calls) on active ETF revenueKNOWABLE AFTER2030-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.growthCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“We remain committed to low- to mid-teens ACV growth over the long term.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Annual Contract Value (ACV) year-over-year growth rate, as disclosed by BlackRock
ACV growth rate between 10% and 15% year-over-year SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany quarterly earnings release / management commentary on ACV (Aladdin technology services disclosures)KNOWABLE AFTER2027-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We continue to believe long-short direct indexing with options overlays is going to be a great growth area, and we aim to double or triple that business in the near term.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Quarterly net inflows into long-short direct indexing strategies (as disclosed alongside Aperio/direct indexing flow figures)
Quarterly long-short direct indexing flows reach approximately $8 billion to $12 billion (2x-3x the $4 billion Q1 2026 base) SourceWHERE TO FIND ITManagement commentary on BlackRock quarterly earnings calls (Aperio/direct indexing flow disclosures)KNOWABLE AFTER2027-04-14
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.marginsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Two, with constructive markets, a higher fee rate on flows—which we have been driving—and strong organic growth, we can pull the fully burdened operating margin of the company up as well.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
BlackRock fully burdened GAAP/as-adjusted operating margin (total company)
Operating margin for a quarter or fiscal year exceeds 46% SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany quarterly/annual earnings release (operating margin disclosure)KNOWABLE AFTER2027-04-14
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.marginsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Over time, we see two things. One, the margin on recurring fee-related earnings can trend upwards toward the trajectory of best-in-class private markets names—north of 50%—driven by the acquired businesses and highly scaled franchises in ETFs, digital assets, and systematic equities.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Margin on recurring fee-related earnings (FRE margin, excluding performance fees and related comp), as reported
Recurring FRE margin > 50% SourceWHERE TO FIND ITBlackRock quarterly earnings supplement / management commentary on earnings callKNOWABLE AFTER2027-04-14
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We have product coming to market with our partners this year—we are going to be launching LifePath with privates—all to build a track record so plan sponsors can get more comfortable with these structures as the DOL rule hopefully takes hold towards the back half of the year and we get really running in 2027.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Launch of LifePath target date fund product with private markets allocations (with partners)
Company confirms LifePath with privates has launched and is available to plan sponsors by year-end 2026 SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany press releases, management commentary on Q4 2026/Q1 2027 earnings calls, or product disclosuresKNOWABLE AFTER2026-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.otherCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“This will drive revenue growth as it is deployed over future quarters.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
BlackRock base fees/revenue growth attributable to private credit platform (particularly HPS/insurance mandate deployment), as disclosed in segment or revenue commentary
Sequential increase in private markets/private credit-related base fees or AUM inflows in quarters following the mandate signing, i.e., quarter-over-quarter growth > 0% SourceWHERE TO FIND ITQuarterly earnings release and management commentary (BLK 10-Q/10-K and earnings call transcripts)KNOWABLE AFTER2026-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.capital allocationCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“At present, based on our capital spending plans for the year, and subject to market and other conditions, we still anticipate repurchasing at least $450 million of shares per quarter for the balance of the year, consistent with our January guidance.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Quarterly share repurchases (dollar amount)
Each of Q2, Q3, and Q4 2026 share repurchases >= $450 million SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany-disclosed share repurchase figures (10-Q/10-K cash flow statement or quarterly earnings materials)KNOWABLE AFTER2027-02-01
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.otherCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We continue to estimate that 25% is a reasonable projected tax run rate for the remainder of 2026.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
As-adjusted effective tax rate, quarterly
As-adjusted effective tax rate for Q2-Q4 2026 quarters approximately 25% (within 24.0%-26.0% range) SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany quarterly earnings release / as-adjusted financial results (management commentary on earnings calls)KNOWABLE AFTER2026-12-31
2026 Q1 (26)26 open
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.demandCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“I think that is one of the foundational reasons why we continue to believe that money market holdings will continue to be quite large.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Total US money market fund assets (industry-wide, or BlackRock's money market AUM as disclosed)
Money market fund assets remain at or above the level reported at time of this statement (no material decline, i.e. >= prior reported level) SourceWHERE TO FIND ITICI money market fund assets data (FRED/ICI) or BlackRock's disclosed money market AUM in quarterly earnings/10-QKNOWABLE AFTER2026-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.marginsCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“We're in an upward trajectory in our margins on fee occurring -- recurring earnings as we continue to drive growth in private markets and scale businesses like ETFs and systematic equities.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
GAAP operating margin, full year
FY2026 operating margin > FY2025 operating margin (45%) SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany quarterly/annual earnings release and 10-K (operating margin disclosure)KNOWABLE AFTER2027-01-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“So I think you'll see here in the near term, a real asset strategy coming to market in the U.S., European direct lending to European private wealth clients and following with triple net lease and other strategies in the U.S. later this year.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Launch of new private-wealth product vehicles (real asset strategy in U.S., European direct lending fund for European private wealth, triple net lease/other U.S. strategy)
At least one new product launch confirmed in each of: U.S. real asset strategy, European direct lending vehicle for European private wealth, and U.S. triple net lease/other strategy, by 2026-12-31 SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany press releases, product launch announcements, or management commentary on quarterly earnings calls in 2026KNOWABLE AFTER2026-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“At our Investor Day we set out a goal to grow the private markets to wealth series of products to at least $60 billion of AUM by 2030.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
AUM of private markets wealth series of products
>= $60 billion SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany disclosures (investor day materials, 10-K, or earnings call commentary)KNOWABLE AFTER2030-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“And we expect that to continue over the coming years.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Aladdin annual contract value (ACV) growth rate, year-over-year
Aladdin ACV growth rate > 0% in fiscal year 2026 and fiscal year 2027 SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany disclosures on Aladdin/technology services ACV growth (10-K / earnings call commentary)KNOWABLE AFTER2028-01-15
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.costsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“That implies future years are in the mid-single-digit percentage growth.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Year-over-year G&A expense growth rate, annual
Annual G&A growth between 4.0% and 6.0% for years following 2026 SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany income statement / expense disclosures (10-K, earnings release)KNOWABLE AFTER2028-01-15
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.costsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“As I mentioned on my prepared remarks, after annualizing for the impact of HPS and Preqin, we'd expect a mid-single-digit percentage increase in G&A.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Total company G&A expense growth for fiscal year 2026 vs. annualized (HPS/Preqin-adjusted) 2025 G&A base
Year-over-year G&A growth between 4% and 6% SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany income statement / expense disclosures (10-K or Q4 2026 earnings release)KNOWABLE AFTER2027-01-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.marginsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“And as we set out in the Investor Day, we're targeting that 45% or higher greater adjusted operating margin.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Adjusted operating margin, full fiscal year
Adjusted operating margin >= 45% SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany-disclosed adjusted operating margin (earnings release / 10-K, non-GAAP reconciliation)KNOWABLE AFTER2026-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.marginsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“So we think that over time, we'll see the margin on fee recurring earnings driving upwards toward the trajectories of the best-in-class private market names, so think north of 50%.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Margin on fee-related recurring earnings (FRE margin), as reported by BlackRock
FRE margin > 50% SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany quarterly earnings release / investor presentation (FRE margin disclosure)KNOWABLE AFTER2030-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.marginsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“As we talked about at our Investor Day, we continue to target 45% or greater adjusted operating margin profile with our margin on recurring fee-related earnings running higher.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Adjusted operating margin, full fiscal year
Adjusted operating margin >= 45% SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany quarterly/annual earnings release (adjusted operating margin reconciliation)KNOWABLE AFTER2026-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“With more growth coming from our pipeline of private markets, systematic strategies, models, SMAs, digital assets, we think we can power organic base fee growth that's more consistently 6%, 7% or higher.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Organic base fee growth rate (annualized), as reported by BlackRock
Organic base fee growth rate >= 6% for fiscal year 2026 SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany quarterly earnings releases / management commentary on organic growth (Q4 2026 / full-year 2026 results)KNOWABLE AFTER2027-01-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We plan to raise a cumulative $400 billion in private markets by 2030.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Cumulative capital raised in private markets fundraising, from stated start point through target date
Cumulative private markets fundraising >= $400 billion by year-end 2030 SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany-disclosed private markets fundraising figures (10-K / earnings call commentary)KNOWABLE AFTER2030-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We're optimistic about our systematic platform, continued double-digit organic base fee growth potential and its position as a bright spot in the active equity industry.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Organic base fee growth rate for the systematic equity platform (as reported by BlackRock)
Organic base fee growth >= 10% for fiscal year 2026 SourceWHERE TO FIND ITBlackRock quarterly earnings materials / management commentary on organic base fee growth by product platform (10-K/10-Q or earnings call)KNOWABLE AFTER2027-01-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.capital allocationCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Our initial target is to mobilize and deploy $30 billion of equity capital with the potential of reaching $100 billion, including debt.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Equity capital mobilized and deployed under the AI infrastructure partnership (AIP), with potential total including debt
Cumulative equity capital mobilized/deployed >= $30 billion (stretch case: total capital including debt approaching $100 billion) SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany disclosures / management commentary on quarterly earnings calls (BlackRock AIP updates)KNOWABLE AFTER2028-01-15
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We expect to launch our first LifePath Target Date fund with private markets later this year.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Launch of the first LifePath Target Date fund incorporating private markets allocations
Company confirms the LifePath Target Date fund with private markets has launched (available to investors/plan sponsors) by year-end SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany press releases, LifePath product disclosures, or management commentary on Q4 2026 earnings callKNOWABLE AFTER2026-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“In private markets, our investments in infrastructure and private credit and alts to wealth underpin our ambitions to raise $400 billion in private markets by 2030.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Cumulative private markets fundraising (new capital raised) since ambition was announced, as disclosed by BlackRock
Cumulative private markets capital raised >= $400 billion by year-end 2030 SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany-disclosed private markets fundraising figures (10-K, investor presentations, or earnings call commentary)KNOWABLE AFTER2030-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.otherCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“That means we enter 2026 with base fees approaching $21 billion, 13% higher than 2025.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Base fees (annualized run-rate entering fiscal year, as disclosed by company), fiscal year 2026 vs 2025
Base fees entering 2026 approximately $20.5-$21.5 billion, representing approximately 13% growth over 2025 base fees SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany earnings release / 10-K disclosure of base fees (Q1 2026 or full-year 2026 results)KNOWABLE AFTER2026-04-30
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We're targeting $400 billion in gross private markets fundraising through 2030, powered by origination, strong investment performance and the depth of our client relationships.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Cumulative gross private markets fundraising, 2026 through 2030
Cumulative gross private markets fundraising >= $400 billion SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany disclosures / management commentary (10-K, earnings calls, investor presentations) on private markets fundraisingKNOWABLE AFTER2030-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.laborCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Additionally, we would expect BlackRock's headcount to be broadly flat in 2026.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
BlackRock total headcount, year-end 2026 vs year-end 2025
Year-end 2026 headcount within approximately -1% to +1% of year-end 2025 headcount SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany-disclosed employee headcount (10-K or Q4 2026 earnings materials)KNOWABLE AFTER2027-01-20
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.costsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“After annualizing for the impact of HPS and Preqin, we would expect a mid-single-digit percentage increase in G&A.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
General & administrative expenses (G&A), annualized to include HPS and Preqin as full-year comparisons, full year 2026 vs full year 2025
G&A increase between 4% and 6% year-over-year on an annualized basis SourceWHERE TO FIND ITBlackRock quarterly/annual income statement and management commentary (10-K / Q4 2026 earnings call)KNOWABLE AFTER2027-01-20
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.otherCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We currently estimate that 25% is a reasonable projected tax run rate for 2026.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
As-adjusted effective tax rate, fiscal year 2026
Full-year 2026 as-adjusted tax rate between 23% and 27% SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany quarterly earnings releases and full-year 2026 results (as-adjusted effective tax rate disclosure)KNOWABLE AFTER2027-01-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.productCONVICTIONHedged language · “we hope”, “could”, “if conditions allow”
“We're working on building investable indices that we hope to bring to market here in the next few years.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Launch of investable private-markets indices (Preqin/BlackRock branded) brought to market
Company confirms at least one investable private-markets index has been launched and is available to investors SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany press releases, iShares/index product announcements, or management commentary on earnings callsKNOWABLE AFTER2029-01-15
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.growthCONVICTIONHedged language · “we hope”, “could”, “if conditions allow”
“So think of a $700 billion base migrating to $70 billion on order of that in private high grade.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Assets under management in private high-grade portfolios migrated from insurance clients' public fixed income assets (BlackRock-managed insurance client assets)
Private high-grade AUM sourced from this migration reaches at least $70 billion (order of magnitude, roughly 10% of the $700 billion base) SourceWHERE TO FIND ITManagement commentary on quarterly earnings calls / investor disclosures on insurance asset management AUMKNOWABLE AFTER2028-01-15
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.growthCONVICTIONHedged language · “we hope”, “could”, “if conditions allow”
“We'd hope to start seeing deployments pull through, through the second half of 2026.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Deployments/AUM inflows from private high-grade insurance SMA mandates discussed on the call
Management commentary confirms deployments began or materially pulled through during H2 2026 (directional: pull-through evident > 0) SourceWHERE TO FIND ITmanagement commentary on BLK earnings calls (Q3 2026 and Q4 2026 calls)KNOWABLE AFTER2027-01-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.otherCONVICTIONHedged language · “we hope”, “could”, “if conditions allow”
“And for our shareholders, that shift represents new private markets AUM and potentially over $1 billion in new base fees.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Cumulative new base fees generated from the shift of client allocations into private markets (insurance, wealth, OCIO), as disclosed by management
New base fees from this private markets shift >= $1 billion SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany disclosures / management commentary on earnings calls (BlackRock private markets base fee run-rate updates through 2030)KNOWABLE AFTER2030-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.growthCONVICTIONHedged language · “we hope”, “could”, “if conditions allow”
“We think these can all be $500 million revenue generators in the next 5 years.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Annual revenue generated by each of the newer franchises named (private markets-to-insurance, private markets-to-wealth, digital assets, active ETFs)
Each named franchise reports revenue >= $500 million annually SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany segment/product revenue disclosures (10-K, investor day materials, or management commentary on earnings calls)KNOWABLE AFTER2031-01-15
2025 Q4 (10)10 open
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.otherCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“I think the third quarter is a good starting point for modeling HPS management fees.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.otherCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“I think we'd expect slightly lower performance fees from HPS in the fourth quarter.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.capital allocationCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“At present, based on our capital spending plans for the year and subject to market and other conditions, we still anticipate repurchasing at least $375 million worth of shares in the fourth quarter, consistent with our previous guidance.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.costsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“In line with our guidance in July, we continue to expect a low teens percentage increase in 2025 core G&A expense.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.otherCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We continue to estimate that 25% is a reasonable projected tax run rate for 2025.”
Test pending
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“With more growth coming from private markets, systematic strategies, and models, we think we should be able to power organic base fee growth. I think we're consistently at six, 7% or higher.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Organic base fee growth rate, annual (or trailing period as reported)
Organic base fee growth >= 6% SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany-disclosed organic base fee growth (quarterly earnings release / 10-K supplemental disclosures)KNOWABLE AFTER2026-10-14
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We're expecting to launch a proprietary LifePath with private's target date fund in 2026.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Launch of proprietary LifePath with private's target date fund product
Company confirms launch/availability of the proprietary LifePath target date fund incorporating private assets by 2026-12-31 SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany press releases, product disclosures, or management commentary on quarterly earnings callsKNOWABLE AFTER2026-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“With a vision to go from probably what's about $30 billion of retail alts today a fully consolidated basis with all these capabilities to $60 billion plus across private markets for wealth by 2030. We think there's real upside in that number, and we'll be looking forward to working on that with the teams over the coming quarter and into 2026.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
BlackRock's retail alternatives AUM across private markets for wealth, on a fully consolidated basis
AUM >= $60 billion SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany disclosures / investor day materials / earnings call commentary on private markets wealth AUMKNOWABLE AFTER2030-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Those discussions are all ongoing. We're starting to see some wins pull through. And I expect you'll see a lot more of that in the numbers into 2026.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Private markets / insurance-related net inflows or AUM growth attributable to HPS insurance and ABF partnerships, as disclosed in segment commentary
Company reports and highlights materially higher insurance-channel/private markets net inflows or AUM growth in 2026 versus 2025 levels, cited as evidence of these deals converting SourceWHERE TO FIND ITBlackRock quarterly earnings releases and earnings call commentary (Q1-Q4 2026)KNOWABLE AFTER2026-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.growthCONVICTIONHedged language · “we hope”, “could”, “if conditions allow”
“And when markets are supportive like this, with risk-on sentiment, think that can tilt even higher.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Organic base fee growth rate (annualized), as reported by BlackRock
Organic base fee growth > 7% SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany quarterly earnings release / earnings call commentary on organic base fee growthKNOWABLE AFTER2026-10-14
2025 Q3 (22)22 open
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“We're entering our seasonally strongest back half of the year with considerable momentum and a robust pipeline.”
Test pending
AWAITS REPORTVERDICTThe period has ended; the company has not reported it yet.capital allocationCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“We are confident that we'll be able to raise the full $30 billion that we announced in equity.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.capital allocationCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We repurchased 375 million worth of common shares in the second quarter and expect to purchase at least 1.5 billion worth of shares for full year 2025, subject to market and other conditions.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.capital allocationCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We continue to target a dividend payout ratio between 40% to 50%.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“So I think between now and the end of the year, we'll continue to execute on those targets, bringing us towards our $400 billion in gross fundraising out to 2030.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.otherCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Our entry rate is 5% higher going into Q3. That's pre-HPS. With HPS, it's more like 10% higher in terms of the base fee jumping off point.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.costsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Ex HPS, G&A would remain in our mid- to high single-digit percentage increase range.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.capital allocationCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“The transaction is expected to close in the third quarter of 2025, subject to regulatory approvals and customary closing conditions.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.capital allocationCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“At present, based on our capital spending plans for the year and subject to market and other conditions, we still anticipate repurchasing at least 375 million of shares per quarter for the balance of the year, consistent with our January guidance.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.costsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“In addition, we'd expect our adjusted compensation to net revenue ratio to be modestly higher due to compensation associated with performance-related revenues from HPS.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.otherCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“As a result of market and FX movements into the end of the quarter, we entered the third quarter with an estimated base fee run rate approximately 5% higher than our total base fees for the second quarter.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.otherCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We continue to estimate that 25% is a reasonable projected tax run rate for the remainder of 2025.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We believe these engines will enable us to more consistently rise above 5% organic base fee growth.”
Test pending
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.marginsCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“Over the cycle, we see a very clear path to continue to target a 45% or greater margin profile.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Adjusted operating margin, full fiscal year or trailing period
Adjusted operating margin >= 45.0% SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany quarterly/annual earnings release (adjusted operating margin disclosure)KNOWABLE AFTER2027-07-15
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.capital allocationCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“But again, we think that the 2030 strategy that we discussed at Investor Day should translate into dividend growth at high single to low double-digit rates.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Dividend per share annual growth rate
Annualized dividend-per-share CAGR from 2025 through 2030 between 7% and 12% SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany-disclosed dividend per share (10-K / quarterly earnings releases)KNOWABLE AFTER2030-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.capital allocationCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“I'd say on dividends... our dividend payout ratio is intended to ensure that the growth in operating and net income under our 2030 strategy that we talked about at Investor Day, will translate into commensurate dividend growth at high single to low double-digit rates.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Annual growth rate of declared dividend per share
Compound annual growth rate in dividend per share from 2025 to 2030 between 6% and 12% SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany-disclosed dividend history (10-K / proxy statement / press releases on dividend declarations)KNOWABLE AFTER2030-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We'd expect more of a ramp-up to higher fundraising levels in the later years, call that 2028 through 2030.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Annual gross private markets fundraising, 2028-2030 vs 2025-2027
Average annual gross fundraising in 2028-2030 higher than average annual gross fundraising in 2025-2027 SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany-disclosed fundraising figures (10-K / investor day / earnings call commentary)KNOWABLE AFTER2030-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“At Investor Day, we talked about targeting $400 billion in gross private markets fundraising through -- from 2025 to 2030.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Cumulative gross private markets fundraising, 2025 through 2030
Cumulative gross private markets fundraising >= $400 billion SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany-disclosed private markets fundraising figures (10-K / investor presentations / earnings calls)KNOWABLE AFTER2030-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.marginsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“I think you can expect us to continue to be able to drive towards our 45% or greater margin profile.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Fee-related earnings (FRE) margin, as reported by BlackRock
FRE margin >= 45% SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany quarterly earnings release / supplemental FRE margin disclosureKNOWABLE AFTER2026-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We would expect to launch a proprietary LifePath with privates target date fund, I believe, sometime in 2026.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Launch of proprietary LifePath target date fund product incorporating private assets
Product publicly launched/available to investors at any point during calendar year 2026 SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany press release, product filings (SEC prospectus), or management commentary on quarterly earnings callsKNOWABLE AFTER2026-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.capital allocationCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“And once we then begin those projects, we'll have to raise another $100 billion in associated debt to finance those type of projects.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Debt raised to finance AIP/GIP infrastructure projects (associated project financing debt)
Cumulative disclosed debt raised for these infrastructure projects >= $100 billion SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany disclosures/management commentary on earnings calls or investor presentations regarding AIP/GIP debt financingKNOWABLE AFTER2027-07-15
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.capital allocationCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“If all contingent consideration is achieved, all SubCo Units are exchanged for shares of common stock and all RSUs vest and are settled as common stock, we do not expect to issue more than approximately 13.8 million additional shares of common stock in aggregate.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Cumulative additional common shares issued from SubCo Units exchange and RSU settlement related to the HPS transaction
Cumulative additional shares issued <= approximately 13.8 million (allow up to 14.0 million) SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany disclosures on diluted shares outstanding / equity issuance in 10-K/10-Q filings and shares outstanding footnotesKNOWABLE AFTER2030-07-15
2025 Q2 (11)11 open
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“We remain committed to low to mid-teens ACV growth over the long-term.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.otherCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“As I mentioned, we'd expect to see positive leverage to base fee revenue, average fee rates on organic growth over time as we grow our private markets business and we see really excellent velocity in private markets fundraising.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.pricingCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“And later in 2025, we expect to add the fee rate accretive assets of HPS. So I expect you'll see much of the same effect you saw post the GIP transaction.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“I think, as you know, GIP acquired all the airports in Malaysia. And so if anything, our footprint continues to grow. We are now in 30 different countries with offices. And I would say by year end, we maybe be as large as 34, 35 different countries.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“In India, we expect our joint venture with Jio BlackRock to launch later this year, subject to regulatory approvals.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We expect to scale our private credit AUM to approximately $220 billion following our planned acquisition of HPS.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.capital allocationCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“The partnership will meet the expected target of $30 billion in capital from investors, asset owners and corporations.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.capital allocationCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We continue to target mid-2025 at the closing of the HPS transaction, which remains subject to regulatory approvals and other customary closing conditions.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.capital allocationCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“At present, based on our capital spending plans for the year and subject to market and other conditions, we still anticipate repurchasing at least $375 million of shares per quarter for the balance of the year, consistent with our January guidance.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.costsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“In line with our January guidance, which excludes the impact of HPS and related transaction costs, at present, we continue to expect a mid to high-single digit percentage increase in 2025 core G&A expense.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.otherCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We continue to estimate that 25% is a reasonable projected tax run rate for the remainder of 2025.”
Test pending
2025 Q1 (13)13 open
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“It gives us a lot of conviction about our 5% or better goal going forward, Alex.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“We remain committed to low to mid-teens ACV growth over the long term.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.marginsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We expect that the impact of positive markets on AUM and revenue through this budgeting approach would drive further margin expansion into 2025.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Looking into 2025, we continue to see strength in structural growers, a bigger private markets business, and BlackRock as a meaningful outperformer and re-risking periods.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We see those trends continuing into 2025.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“For our shareholders, we believe the increased contribution from private markets and technology will drive higher and more resilient organic growth, differentiating financial performance and multiple re-rating.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.otherCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“At present, we expect to recognize approximately $5 billion of realizations in the first quarter from older GIP fund vintages executing on successful exits.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.capital allocationCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“In addition and also subject to market and other conditions, we expect to seek Board approval later this month for an increase to our first-quarter 2025 dividend, consistent with our track record of continued dividend growth.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.costsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Most of the core G&A expense growth should come from consolidating the G&A expense of GIP and Preqin and continued investment in technology as we look to operate more efficiently and better serve our clients.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.costsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Additionally, excluding HPS, we would expect a mid-to-high single-digit percentage increase in 2025 core G&A expense.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.laborCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Based on these closing timelines, we'd expect BlackRock's headcount to be higher in 2025.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Over time and with continued growth in infrastructure strategies and the successful closing of the HPS acquisition, we would expect to see positive leverage to base fee revenue, average fee rates, and organic growth as we grow private markets with clients.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.otherCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We currently estimate that 25% is a reasonable projected tax run rate for 2025.”
Test pending
2024 Q4 (18)18 open
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.marginsCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“So we believe we can continue to invest to accelerate organic growth and deliver margin expansion using this financial rubric that we've laid out.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“Our business tends to be seasonally strongest in the fourth quarter and we maintain line of sight into a broad global opportunity set of new asset management and technology mandates that should fuel organic growth.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“We're also moving swiftly and aggressively to position our firm to continue to achieve or exceed our 5% organic base fee growth target over the long term.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.pricingCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“As I noted, consolidation of the GIP portfolios into our business is expected to lift the fee rate by about a 0.5 to 1 full basis point.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.pricingCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Going into Q4 ex-GIP, we'd expect the entry rate to be flat.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.otherCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We think if we are able to drive 5% organic growth, continue to execute on this financial rubric I laid out. We should be able to drive industry-leading margins and margin expansion and double-digit EPS growth.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.marginsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Think about GIP adding, as we said on the call, annualized north of $400 million of earnings at sort of 50-ish percent margins.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.otherCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“So I'd model sort of a $1 billion of fees with an FRE margin north of 50% when we think about 2025 in terms of GIP.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We continue to grow our pipeline across the breadth of the Aladdin investment management mandates and we expect momentum to further build into year-end in 2025.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.otherCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We continue to estimate that 25% is a reasonable projected tax run rate for the remainder of 2024.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.capital allocationCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“At present, we expect our planned acquisition of Preqin to close around year-end 2024, subject to regulatory approvals and other customary closing conditions.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.capital allocationCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“At present, based on our capital spending plans for the year and subject to market and other conditions, we still anticipate repurchasing at least $375 million of shares in the fourth quarter consistent with our previous guidance.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.costsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“In line with this outlook, we would also expect Q4 core G&A to reflect execution of planned technology investment spend at levels more consistent with Q3 and seasonal increases in marketing spend.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.costsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“And we would also expect a low to mid-single digit percentage increase in 2024 core G&A expense.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.laborCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“In line with our guidance in January and excluding the impact of Global Infrastructure Partners, Preqin and related transaction costs, at present we would expect our headcount to be broadly flat in 2024.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.pricingCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We expect these private market assets to positively impact BlackRock's overall effective fee rate by 0.5 to 1 full basis point.”
Test pending
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.otherCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“As we grow our private markets business, we would expect to see positive leverage to base fee revenue. We'd expect to see positive leverage to average fee rates and organic growth over time.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Base fee revenue growth rate vs. adjusted operating expense growth rate; average fee rate trend; organic base fee/AUM growth rate, private markets segment
Base fee revenue growth outpaces expense growth (positive operating leverage) and average fee rate is flat-to-up year-over-year, measured over the period through the deadline SourceWHERE TO FIND ITBlackRock quarterly earnings releases and 10-K/10-Q disclosures, management commentary on earnings calls (base fees, effective fee rate, organic growth metrics)KNOWABLE AFTER2026-10-11
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.pricingCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“So in the longer term, as we see a liquids and private markets as a bigger contributor to our business mix, we would expect that to have positive leverage on the fee rate.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Company-reported effective/average base fee rate (annualized base fees divided by average AUM), as disclosed in quarterly filings
Reported average fee rate higher than the Q3 2024 baseline level (directional increase, not flat or declining) SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany-disclosed average fee rate / base fee rate (10-Q/10-K disclosures or quarterly earnings call commentary)KNOWABLE AFTER2026-10-11
2024 Q3 (13)13 open
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“that gives us a great deal of conviction about the path to 5% in the back half of '24 and also our longer-term ambition, I think, to be at 5% or better as we grow private markets and technology.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“We have strong conviction we are on pace to reach our 5% organic base fee growth target.”
Test pending
AWAITS REPORTVERDICTThe period has ended; the company has not reported it yet.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Preqin is expected to accelerate our planned technology services ACV within our target range. It's going to increase current ACV dollars by about 15%. So, we'll continue to target low- to mid-teens growth in tech services ACV, and we'd expect bringing together Aladdin, eFront and Preqin to be the way that we can get there over the next few years.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We expect additional commitment plan sponsors to fund over future quarters and we have a very strong late-stage pipeline.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“And the expected third quarter closing of GIP will add on to our organic base fee growth potential, doubling our private markets base fees and adding approximately $100 billion of AUM focused on infrastructure.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.capital allocationCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“At present, we'd expect our planned acquisition of GIP to close in the third quarter of 2024, subject to regulatory approvals and other customary closing conditions.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.capital allocationCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“At present, based on our capital spending plans for the year and subject to market conditions, we still anticipate repurchasing at least $375 million of shares per quarter for the balance of the year consistent with our previous guidance in January.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.costsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“we would also expect a low- to mid-single digit percentage increase in 2024 core G&A expense.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.laborCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“In-line with our guidance in January and excluding the impact of Global Infrastructure Partners, Preqin and related transaction costs, at present, we would expect our headcount to be broadly flat in 2024”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.marginsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“As markets improve, we expect execution on our financial rubric to drive profitable growth and operating leverage.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Preqin is expected to accelerate planned technology services ACV growth within our target range.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.otherCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We continue to estimate that 25% is a reasonable projected tax run rate for the remainder of 2024.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Our business tends to be seasonally stronger in the back half of the year and we have line of sight into a broad global opportunity set of new asset management and technology mandates that should fuel premium organic growth.”
Test pending
2024 Q2 (9)9 open
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We received a really important placement for BDEAT as a National Wirehouse, so we think that will be a strong accelerant for organic growth.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“And we just see good fundraising momentum, which we think we can kick into next year with GIP.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“And I think what Larry is getting at, we've been selected for a breadth of mandates across investment management and technology that we see supporting 5% organic growth and will fund over future quarters.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.capital allocationCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“At present, based on our capital spending plans for the year and subject to market conditions, we still anticipate repurchasing at least $375 million of shares per quarter for the balance of the year consistent with our January guidance.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.capital allocationCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“At present, we expect the transaction to close in the second quarter of this year, subject to customary closing conditions.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.costsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“In line with our guidance in January and excluding the impact of global infrastructure partners and related transaction costs, at present, we would expect our headcount to be broadly flat in 2024 and we would also expect a low to mid-single-digits percentage increase in 2024 core G&A expense.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.capital allocationCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“While one quarter's results can be impacted by timing of spend, we expect technology to be one of our primary areas of investment within G&A.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.otherCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We continue to estimate that 25% is a reasonable projected tax run rate for the remainder of 2024, though the actual effective tax rate may differ because of non-recurring or discrete items or potential changes in tax legislation.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONHedged language · “we hope”, “could”, “if conditions allow”
“But I do think that we stand to bode very well once you see some changes in the yield curve.”
Test pending
2024 Q1 (13)13 open
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.marginsCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“We're committed to delivering a premium operating margin.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“We remain committed to low to mid-teens ACV growth over the long term.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.otherCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“I'm not going to talk about fundraising or future funds, but we would expect those performance fees to come on in later years, not in the near term, given the trajectory for how vintages come on.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“That, to me, suggests that we can trend towards our 5% through the cycle target as rates stabilize and the market is more constructive.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.marginsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We expect the transaction to be modestly accretive to as-adjusted EPS and operating margin in the first full year post close, which will exclude transaction-related costs.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.costsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Also excluding the impact of GIP and related transaction costs, we'd expect a low to mid-single-digit percentage increase in 2024 core G&A expense.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.laborCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Excluding the impact of the GIP transaction at present, we'd expect our headcount to be broadly flat in 2024.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.otherCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“As a result of accelerating organic growth and global equity and bond market appreciation toward the end of the quarter, we entered the first quarter with an estimated base fee run rate approximately 6% higher than our total base fees for the fourth quarter.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.otherCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We currently estimate that 25% is a reasonable projected tax run rate for 2024, though the actual effective tax rate may differ because of nonrecurring or discrete items or potential changes in tax legislation.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“It's generally unfolding as we described, with greater clarity on terminal rates in the fourth quarter we saw evidence of portfolio re-risking and we expect this trend to accelerate in 2024.”
Test pending
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We expect our primary growth drivers, as I said, over the next three to five years to be infrastructure and credit private equity solutions, where we've built great franchises.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Net inflows/organic AUM growth by segment for infrastructure and credit & private equity solutions, relative to other alternatives segments, over multi-year period
Infrastructure and credit/private equity solutions segments show higher cumulative net flows or AUM growth rate than other alternatives segments (e.g., real estate, hedge fund solutions) over 2024-2029 SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany-disclosed segment flows and AUM (10-K / 10-Q alternatives disclosures, quarterly earnings supplements)KNOWABLE AFTER2029-01-12
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Given the structural growth trends of the private infrastructure market, and what we see as a best-in-class whole portfolio infrastructure investing capability, we believe the transaction will be accretive to long-term organic asset and base fee growth.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
BlackRock total net organic base fee growth rate (or organic AUM growth rate), annualized, as reported in company disclosures
Organic base fee/asset growth rate meets or exceeds 5% on a through-the-cycle basis, assessed over fiscal years 2024-2026 SourceWHERE TO FIND ITBlackRock quarterly earnings releases and 10-K/annual report (organic growth metrics disclosure)KNOWABLE AFTER2026-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We continue to expect these categories to be our primary growth drivers in the coming years.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Net inflows into BlackRock's illiquid/private markets strategies (infrastructure and private credit) relative to net inflows in other major categories
Cumulative net inflows into infrastructure and private credit strategies rank among the largest contributors to total firm net inflows in fiscal years 2024-2026, exceeding the $14 billion annual pace disclosed for 2023 SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany quarterly earnings releases and 10-K disclosures on net flows by product/asset classKNOWABLE AFTER2026-12-31
2023 Q4 (10)10 open
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“We believe in our 5% organic base fee growth target over the long-term, and we challenge ourselves to envision what it takes to rise above that target.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“We remain committed to low- to mid-teens ACV growth over the long-term, driven by demand for Aladdin's broadening technology capabilities and the growing value proposition it presents for clients.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.laborCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“still accept to keep our headcount broadly flat for this year, as we've said in the last two quarters.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.marginsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Our budget for 2024 is going to look to optimize organic growth in the most efficient way possible and expanding our premium margin over time.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“So when? Well, once there's more certainty on a terminal rate and the shape of the yield curve, then we expect more deployment into fixed income.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.capital allocationCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“At present, based on our capital spending plans for the year and subject to market conditions, we still anticipate repurchasing at least $375 million of shares in the fourth quarter, consistent with our previous guidance in January.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.costsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“In line with this outlook, we would also expect fourth quarter core G&A to reflect seasonal increases in marketing spend and execution of planned technology investment spend.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.costsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“At present, we expect full year 2023 core G&A to fall on the low end of our previously communicated guidance of a mid- to high-single-digit percentage increase.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.otherCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“As a result of continued global equity and bond market depreciation toward the end of the third quarter, including the impact of FX-related dollar appreciation, we entered the fourth quarter with an estimated base fee run rate, approximately 3% lower than our total base fees for the third quarter.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.otherCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We continue to estimate that 25% is a reasonable projected tax run rate for the remainder of 2023.”
Test pending
2023 Q3 (9)9 open
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“We remain committed to low-to-mid-teens ACV growth over the long-term driven by demand for Aladdin's broadening technology capabilities and the growing value proposition it represents for clients.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.costsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We see great opportunities. We have no change in our expense guidance. We expect to finish the year, as I said, broadly flat in headcount and with G&A. up mid-to-high single-digits.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.marginsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“As markets recover, I think we expect to see our revenue growth outpace growth in discretionary expense items and be accretive to operating margin.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.costsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We expect to invest the proceeds of the offering at substantially the same rate as the cost of borrowing, effectively eliminating incremental cost of carrying additional debt in 2023.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.capital allocationCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“At present, based on our capital spending plans for the year and subject to market conditions, we still anticipate repurchasing at least $375 million of shares per quarter for the balance of the year, consistent with our previous guidance in January.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.costsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We would also expect a mid-to-high single-digit percentage increase in 2023 core G&A expense.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.laborCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“In line with our guidance in January at present, we would expect our headcount to be broadly flat in 2023.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.marginsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We continue to estimate that 25% is a reasonable projected tax run rate for the remainder of 2023.”
Test pending
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“This industry-leading net inflows was led by continued demand for iShares bond ETFs and we aim for our bond ETF AUM to more than triple to $2.5 trillion by 2030.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
iShares/BlackRock bond ETF assets under management
Bond ETF AUM >= $2.5 trillion SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany-disclosed AUM by product (10-K / quarterly earnings supplement)KNOWABLE AFTER2030-12-31
2023 Q2 (7)7 open
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“We remain committed to low to mid-teens ACV growth over the long term, especially as periods of market volatility have historically underscored the importance of Aladdin and generated increased demand.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“And so I think over time, you'll continue to see good solid growth there.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.capital allocationCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“At present, based on our capital spending plans for the year and subject to market conditions, we still anticipate repurchasing at least 375 million of shares per quarter for the balance of the year, consistent with our previous guidance in January.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.costsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“we'd also expect a mid- to high single-digit percentage increase in 2023 core G&A expense.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.costsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“In line with our guidance in January, at present, we'd expect our headcount to be broadly flat in 2023, and we'd also expect a mid- to high single-digit percentage increase in 2023 core G&A expense.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.marginsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Although markets have improved since the end of 2022, we will continue to be disciplined in prioritizing our hiring and overall investments with the aim of delivering organic growth and a differentiated operating margin.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.otherCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We continue to estimate that 25% is a reasonable projected tax run rate for the remainder of 2023.”
Test pending
2023 Q1 (8)8 open
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.marginsCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“And as markets hopefully recover we are very confident to see -- to say that our revenue growth over the long term should meaningfully outpace our growth in any of these discretionary expense items and ultimately be accretive to our operating margin.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“One is outsourcing, and we have seen this trend over the last several years. And our recent successes with significant sized mandates are going to position us well to execute on a strong 2023 pipeline.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“But now to answer your question even more directly, we see a lot of tailwinds that I think are going to support our growth trajectory into 2023.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“There will be more money moving around. And as investors recalibrate, we believe we will benefit as clients build portfolio with high-performing active investments alongside ETFs and, of course, private market strategies.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“In an increasingly complex investment environment, we're seeing strong demand from clients looking to partner with BlackRock for outsourced solutions and expect this to continue in 2023.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.capital allocationCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“At present, based on capital spending plans for the year and subject to market conditions, including the relative valuation of our stock price, we are targeting the repurchase of at least $1.5 billion of shares during 2023.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.laborCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“At present, we would expect our head count to be broadly flat in 2023.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.otherCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We currently estimate that 25% is a reasonable projected tax run rate for 2023 primarily due to an increase in UK tax rates, though the actual effective tax rate may differ because of non-recurring or discrete items or potential changes in tax legislation.”
Test pending
2022 Q4 (6)6 open
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“But it’s looking basically on an average over these cycles, I think we feel very comfortable with 5%.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“But we absolutely believe that, over time, we will be able to continue to maintain that growth.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.laborCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“We are continuing to pursue critical hires that support our near-term growth, but are pausing the balance of our hiring plans for the remainder of 2022.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.capital allocationCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“At present, based on our capital spending plans for the year and subject to market conditions, including the relative valuation of our stock price, we will – we still anticipate repurchasing at least $375 million of shares in the fourth quarter consistent with our previous guidance.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.marginsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“While these steps will not materially impact our 2022 results, they will better position us going into 2023, should market headwinds persist.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.otherCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We continue to estimate that 24% is a reasonable projected tax run rate for the remainder of 2022, but the actual effective tax rate may differ because of non-recurring or discrete items or potential changes in tax legislation.”
Test pending
2022 Q3 (6)6 open
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“And I do believe funds like SIO readers industry-leading fund will continue to have industry-leading inflows.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“I think this is we are going to see an acceleration of OCIO mandates because we can provide our services cheaper than in-house.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“We remain committed to low to mid-teens growth in ACV over the long-term, especially as periods of market volatility have historically underscored the importance of Aladdin and generated increased demand from clients.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.laborCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“I wouldn’t say that our estimated headcount growth for the year will be generally consistent with the earlier guidance we gave, but roughly 100% of that growth will be at the more junior levels of the organization and something like 40% or so of that growth will be in our iHub locations.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.capital allocationCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“At present, based on our capital spending plans for the year and subject to market conditions, including the relative valuation of our stock price, we still anticipate repurchasing at least $375 million of shares per quarter for the balance of the year, consistent with previous guidance.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.otherCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We continue to estimate that 24% is a reasonable projected tax run-rate for the remainder of 2022 though the actual effective tax rate may differ because of non-recurring or discrete items or potential changes in tax legislation.”
Test pending
2022 Q2 (5)5 open
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“We remain confident in our ability to continue delivering low-to-mid-teens ACV growth as we see strong demand for Aladdin’s end-to-end cloud-based SaaS capabilities.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We have over two dozen global client -- Aladdin Wealth clients and expect further growth to come from expansion into different wealth segments and in markets around the world.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.capital allocationCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“At present, based on our capital spending plans for the year and subject to market conditions, including the relative valuation of our stock price, we still anticipate repurchasing at least $375 million of shares per quarter for the balance of the year consistence with our previous guidance in January.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.otherCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We continue to estimate 24% as a reasonable projected tax run rate for the remainder of 2022, though the actual effective tax rate may differ because of nonrecurring or discrete items or potential changes in tax legislation.”
Test pending
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“And we are -- in our forecast for new growth in these areas, we’re forecasting the build-out of three large infrastructure funds to meet these needs.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Number of large infrastructure funds launched/built out by the company
Company launches or builds out at least 3 large infrastructure funds SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany disclosures on fund launches (earnings calls, press releases, 10-K/annual report)KNOWABLE AFTER2024-04-13
2022 Q1 (7)7 open
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“We remain confident in our ability to continue delivering low to mid-teens ACV growth as demand for Aladdin’s end-to-end, cloud-based SaaS solution is stronger than ever.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“And I believe this will continue to be driving flows in the coming years.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We are about two-thirds complete with our client migrations. That is ahead of our initial plan and we anticipate completing the remainder of those client migrations likely in the first half of 2022.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“And so if anything, I think that momentum in active is going to accelerate going forward, especially in the OCIO area and whole portfolios.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.laborCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“At present, we would expect headcount to increase by as much as 10% with a continued focus on optimizing our talent pyramid for more junior roles and growing our footprint and iHub innovation centers.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.pricingCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Given the current prospects for higher rates in the near term, we now anticipate most of these waivers would cease shortly after the first 25 basis point increase in the Fed Funds rate, resulting in a one-half basis point increase to our annualized effective fee rate.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.otherCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We currently estimate that 24% is a reasonable projected tax rate for 2022, though the actual effective tax rate may differ because of non-recurring or discrete items or potential changes in tax legislation.”
Test pending
2021 Q4 (5)5 open
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.growthCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“We remain committed to low to mid-teams growth in ACV over the long term.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Annual Contract Value (ACV) year-over-year growth rate, Technology Services segment
Multi-year average ACV growth rate between 10% and 16% (low-to-mid teens) SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany-disclosed Technology Services ACV metrics (quarterly earnings release / 10-K)KNOWABLE AFTER2026-10-13
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.costsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“And obviously, if we're able to continue to deliver organic base fee growth well in excess of our 5% target, which we've done for the last 6 quarters in a row to 9% clip, 13% over the last 12 months, we're going to see some elevated expenses to be able to drive that success.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“And we've built up alternatives platforms and raised another 100 billion of gross capital over the last five years and we expect to raise a 100 billion more in the next 3 years.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.costsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We have made no changes to the discretionary investment spending plans we have previously outlined and would expect a sequential increase in our fourth quarter core G&A spends to be generally consistent with previous years, reflecting seasonal increases in marketing spend, additional costs related to return to office planning, and ongoing technology costs associated with the latent cloud migrations.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.pricingCONVICTIONHedged language · “we hope”, “could”, “if conditions allow”
“Obviously, you will see that the spot rate entering the fourth quarter was moderately lower, but not a big deal in average assets for the third quarter. So I think we're probably about the same.”
Test pending