DUK (DUK)

“Cash generation continues to grow and is durable well into the late '30s.”

“We're looking at landing all of that 15 gigawatts by the first half of next year, and we're on track to do that.”

“We are on track to achieve our 2026 EPS guidance range of $6.55 to $6.80 and 5% to 7% EPS growth through 2030 with confidence to earn the top half of the range beginning in 2028.”

“We are on track to achieve our FFO to debt target of 14.5% for the year.”

“Overall, we are extremely pleased with our performance through the first half of 2026 and are firmly on track to achieve full year results within our EPS guidance range.”

“and lastly, we're executing on the construction of new dispatchable capacity, including increasing the number of gas turbines available under our framework agreement with GE Vernova to 26 to align with the next phase of build in the IRPs.”

“We expect orders on both cases by mid-November.”

“We are also reaffirming our long-term earnings per share growth rate of 5% to 7% through 2030, and we are more confident than ever that we will deliver in the top half of the range beginning in 2028 when we expect to see accelerated growth from the economic development projects we have secured under ESAs.”

“With our largest quarter still ahead of us, we remain firmly on track to achieve our 2026 guidance range of $6.55 to $6.80.”

“that will catch up with earning the tax credits in the late '20s—around 2028 or 2029—and we'll about hit parity on the nuclear PTCs, which is a huge contributor to Duke's tax credit profile and will save cost for customers.”

“We've also priced $600 million under the ATM program so far this year, which will settle at the end of 2027.”

“Longer term, we expect to reach 15% FFO to debt as additional proceeds from the DEF minority interest investment are received.”

“We continue to expect these customers to begin taking energy as early as the second half of 2027 and into 2028 and ramp into their full contracted load through the early 2030s.”

“As additional contracts are signed, there is $5 billion to $10 billion of upside to our current five-year capital plan to support additional generation and transmission needs, particularly in Indiana and Florida.”

“And we continue to expect the remainder of the 15.4 gigawatt pipeline to be converted to ESAs by the first half of 2027.”

“the second will be delivered later this year.”

“we're preparing to file the SLR application for the Brunswick Nuclear Plant by the end of the year.”

“We expect an order from the North Carolina Commission by year-end.”

“Slide 7 shows our continued progress on our record generation build, now on track to add 15 gigawatts of capacity by 2031, which reflects additions from our latest 10-year site plan in Florida.”

“If approved by the commission, revised customer rates are expected to remain below the national average.”

“So I'm very confident in our ability to earn in the top half of the range -- EPS growth range in 2028 as these loads materialize.”

“So we feel confident, and that's why a lot of them have been able to start construction as soon after we sign those ESAs. We anticipate the same thing with all the new ones that are coming into us. They'll start construction very rapidly.”

“We are on track to achieve our 2026 EPS guidance range of $6.55 to $6.80 and 5% to 7% EPS growth through 2030 with confidence to earn in the top half of the range beginning in 2028.”

“And we are more confident than ever that we will deliver in the top half of the range beginning in 2028 when we expect to see accelerated growth from the economic development projects we have secured under ESAs.”

“I think it's evident. We signed 2.7 gigawatts this quarter, which was more than half we signed last year is really a testament to that speed to power focus, and you should expect more of that in the future.”

“This balanced funding approach, along with improving cash flows from efficient recovery mechanisms keeps us on track to deliver 14.5% FFO to debt in 2026 and 15% over the long term, providing meaningful cushion to our downgrade thresholds.”

“We expect the 2.7 gigawatts signed in the first quarter as well as any incremental projects signed to begin taking energy late in the 5-year planning window and ramp into the early to mid-2030s, strengthening the durability of our long-term growth potential well into the next decade.”

“Consistent with our load forecast, we expect these customers to begin taking energy as early as the second half of 2027 and into 2028 and ramp into their full contracted load through the early 2030s.”

“Our teams are working diligently to advance projects through the pipeline, and we expect to convert additional prospects to ESAs over the next 12 months.”

“We budget for storms and have solid recovery mechanisms in place. So the impact in the first quarter is largely timing, and we continue to target flat O&M for the full year.”

“The first turbine secured under our framework agreement with GE Vernova are being built, with the turbines for the first Person County combined cycle project expected to be delivered in the second half of this year.”

“Construction is expected to begin in 2027.”

“As the operator of the largest regulated fleet in the nation, nuclear is foundational to our strategy, and we intend to seek similar extensions for all our remaining reactors.”

“With these approvals, we're working towards an effective date of January 1, 2027.”

“Combining these utilities will enable us to meet the Carolina's growing energy needs more efficiently with estimated customer savings of $2.3 billion through 2040.”

“First, last week, we reached a multiyear agreement to monetize up to $3.1 billion of clean energy tax credits expected to be generated through 2028.”

“We are on track to achieve our 2026 guidance range of $6.55 to $6.80 and are reaffirming our 5% to 7% long-term EPS growth rate through 2030.”

“We remain on track to close the Tennessee sale by the end of the first quarter and the first tranche of the DEF investment in early 2026.”

“I am more confident than ever that of our ability to earn in the top half like we talked about of our 5% to 7% EPS growth range starting in '28 and also the fact that this will be durable into the future.”

“That is absolutely correct. We are fully confident in being able in '28 as that load comes online, with these minimum take contract provisions that we have reaching that top half, that 6% to 7% growth rate.”

“So we feel very confident with our projections of 5% to 7% through the period as well as in the top half starting in '28 as some of those loads come online.”

“We do not anticipate any of those backing out.”

“As load growth and capital investment accelerate, we are more confident than ever in our ability to earn the top half of the 5% to 7% EPS range beginning in 2028.”

“I am more confident than ever in our ability to deliver in the top half of the range beginning in 2028 as load growth accelerates.”

“But the 9.6%, if we took out the minority investment in Florida that is going to happen during this five-year window, would knock the CAGR to 8.8%.”

“And just for a number, the economic development profile that we have in The Carolinas and across the system, data centers comprise about 75% of that by the end of by 2030.”

“You know, that is a good gauge of where we might be to maintain that 15% FFO to debt once we are in 2028 and beyond.”

“But I would point to the revenues are accelerating into that 2028 timeframe. That is when these customers will start taking energy.”

“And, you know, we have got four and a half gigawatts of ESA signed. You think about those, those will start coming online in late 2027 and really ramp in '28.”

“But we do not anticipate any impacts to our guidance for this year.”

“Our financing plan includes $10 billion of equity in the 2027 to 2030 timeframe to fund accretive growth.”

“Our industry-leading capital plan drives 9.6% earnings base growth through 2030, up over 150 basis points versus the prior plan.”

“Consistent with prior guidance, we expect the Tennessee and Florida transactions to be earnings neutral, with interest savings at the holding company fully offsetting lower earnings at Piedmont and Duke Energy Florida.”

“In addition, our plan assumes normal weather and retail sales growth of 1.5% to 2% in 2026.”

“These drivers will continue in 2026, and we set our adjusted EPS guidance range at $6.55 to $6.80 for 2026.”

“Our battery deployment, in particular, will ramp significantly through the five-year plan, with approximately four and a half gigawatts of additions through 2031.”

“We are adding approximately 14 gigawatts of incremental capacity over the next five years, which demonstrates our commitment to meet the accelerated growth in front of us by maximizing our current fleet as we add new generation.”

“In North Carolina, we are progressing our request for new multiyear rate plans, which would take effect on January 1, 2027.”

“In 2026, we will also move forward through the process to combine our Carolinas utilities, which, if approved, will save customers more than $1 billion through 2038.”

“Our capital plan will drive 9.6% earnings-based growth and is the largest fully regulated capital plan in the industry, focused on critical energy infrastructure investments that strengthen the system and serve increasing load.”

“Looking ahead, we are introducing 2026 earnings guidance of $6.55 to $6.80, also extending our 5% to 7% long-term EPS growth rate through 2030 off the original 2025 guidance midpoint of $6.30.”

“But we're committed to protecting the balance sheet, meeting that 15% FFO that we committed to and being above 14% this year.”

“Absolutely. We are committed to 15% FFO over time, and we're on target to be over 14% this year as committed.”

“This represents over 11% growth versus adjusted earnings per share of $1.62 last year, putting us firmly on track to deliver the targeted growth in 2025.”

“Across all 3 jurisdictions, the timely recovery process helps maintain credit quality and reinforces our expectation of achieving 14% or higher FFO to debt by year-end.”

“As a result, bills are expected to decrease by approximately $40 a month beginning in March.”

“in Florida, $1.1 billion of storm costs will be fully recovered by February 2026.”

“we expect to issue South Carolina bonds before year-end.”

“We also expect new rates in South Carolina to be effective in the first quarter of 2026.”

“We also recently filed CPCNs for the Anderson County combined cycle and Smith combustion turbine projects. We expect approvals on both these sites in mid-2026.”

“We will provide additional details on the updated capital and financing plan on our fourth quarter call in February.”

“And finally, I am confident we are going to earn in the top half of our 5% to 7% range beginning in '28.”

“Yes, that's a good assumption. As these economic development projects come into play and we continue to invest in our system, we see that being a durable approach.”

“As I think about the top half of the growth range in beginning of 2028, I would say it fits within any of the $95 billion to $105 billion capital range that we provided.”

“That gives us high confidence that we're going to be in the top half of the growth range in 2028. And I want to underscore the growth is strong, and I would think of it as a CAGR in the top half in 2028 off of 2025 base of 6.30%, not just an annual growth.”

“As load growth and capital accelerate, we have confidence we will earn in the top half of the range beginning in 2028.”

“We are well positioned to deliver earnings within our narrowed guidance range in 2025 as well as 5% to 7% growth through 2029.”

“With solid business environments and efficient recovery mechanisms in place, we are well positioned to deliver 5% to 7% earnings growth through 2029 with confidence to earn in the top half of the range beginning in 2028.”

“With a maturing pipeline and concrete investment plans in place, we're reaffirming our long-term EPS growth rate of 5% to 7% through 2029 and have confidence we will earn the top half of the range beginning in 2028.”

“Our focus is on digesting those 2 big deals that we announced earlier this year, and then we'll continue to fund like we've mentioned before, 30% to 50% of our plan with equity depending on the projects.”

“So the ramp will begin, but it really hits an inflection point in 2028 and it continues to grow into the early 30s.”

“I would first say that every year, the plan is within the 5% to 7%.”

“Consistent with previous guidance, we'll target 30% to 50% equity funding for this incremental growth capital.”

“As Harry discussed earlier, we expect our new 5-year capital plan to be between $95 billion and $105 billion.”

“As discussed on the second quarter call, we are targeting 15% FFO to debt over the long term, which provides 200 basis points of cushion above our Moody's downgrade threshold and 300 basis points above our S&P downgrade threshold.”

“These projects are expected to bring an additional 25,000 jobs to our service territories and support our load growth projections.”

“We expect new rates to be effective in early 2027, and we'll provide additional details once the filings are made.”

“Looking ahead to 2026 growth drivers on Slide 8, we expect the constructive regulatory outcomes that are driving 2025 results to continue next year.”

“We're on track to add more than 8.5 gigawatts of new dispatchable generation across our service territories over the next 5 years.”

“Importantly, the updated IRP results in annual customer bill impacts of approximately 2% over the coming decade, below the rate of inflation and significantly lower than the previously approved plan.”

“Storm cost securitization, which is expected to save customers in the Carolinas up to 18% on their bills compared to traditional recovery mechanisms.”

“The step-up is primarily related to investments in new generation that will drive earnings base growth of more than 8.5% through 2030.”

“As load growth materializes and we invest in modernizing our system, we expect our new 5-year capital plan to be between $95 billion and $105 billion, increasing the largest investment plan in the industry.”

“We're carrying out an ambitious generation build that will add more than 13 gigawatts of capacity to our system in the next 5 years.”

“the combination of Duke Energy Carolinas and Duke Energy Progress utilities, which, if approved, would save retail customers more than $1 billion through 2038.”

“We are also delivering on all credit supportive initiatives and are firmly on track to achieve 14% FFO to debt this year.”

“Overall, we are very pleased with the results we've achieved so far this year, which continue to reflect the strength of the regulatory outcomes and the operational performance we have consistently delivered, and we are on track to achieve our targeted EPS and credit objectives for 2025.”

“We move into the back half of the year with positive momentum and are reaffirming our 2025 guidance range of $6.17 to $6.42 and our long-term EPS growth rate of 5% to 7% through 2029.”

“So we're tracking in line with the 1.5% to 2% growth this year, and we do think this is more of a transit item.”

“And I would add this balance sheet strengthening obviously gives us more flexibility of timing of the equity component of that capital investment and the like. But the 30% to 50% is a good planning range.”

“We've always targeted between 30% and 50% depending on what recovery mechanism we have, and we'll continue to look at that as we refresh our plans.”

“We are closely monitoring these trends, but continue progressing toward our 1.5% to 2% volume growth expectations for the year.”

“Hearings begin later this month, and we expect an order by November.”

“Later this month, we plan to file applications with the North Carolina and South Carolina Commissions and FERC to combine our DEC and DEP utilities.”

“We expect hearings to take place in the fourth quarter with new rates in effect early next year, if approved.”

“And within the 5-year plan, we'll clearly be in the 15%, and we'll refresh the financial plan in February, Nick, with more details as we absorb timing and use of proceeds in a more granular way.”

“The way I'd look at this, Julien, is this really just gives us even more confidence in our 5% to 7% range that we've mentioned many times before and also gives us confidence in earning in the top half of that range in the 28% and 29% at the back end of the plan.”

“Proceeds from the accretive transactions solidify our credit profile and provide further confidence in our potential to earn at the top half of the range as load growth accelerates in the back end of the plan.”

“With turbines secured under our framework agreement with GE Vernova and gas supply contracted, we are confident in meeting the in-service time lines we have laid out for these new units.”

“And we're on track to add over 8 gigawatts of dispatchable power across our system through 2031.”

“Our Board has approved a 2% growth in the dividend. We feel like that's appropriate given the capital allocation and investment cycle we're attacking into. So we will continue to drive down the payout ratio as that level of dividend growth remains through the planning period.”

“Yes. That is all in Florida. And I would think about it at the end of our multiyear rate plan, so starting with our next multiyear rate plan, which will be '28 and '29 is when those investments would go in.”

“It does have ramping like all these data centers do. So it will start coming in, in the '27, '28 time frame, and it will ramp in through the next -- beginning of the next decade.”

“Steve, I would say, as it progresses, maybe not all the tranches, but we need to progress through the deal to be right at the 15%.”

“We expect to issue the remaining $4.5 billion of common equity through the DRIP and ATM programs in the '27 to '29 time frame.”

“Enabled by these transactions, we announced today that we are raising our long-term FFO to debt target to 15%.”

“As we look ahead, we continue to expect load growth to accelerate in the latter years of the plan as large load projects come online and begin to ramp.”

“We are targeting January 27 for the effective date.”

“We expect the combination to generate significant customer savings over $1 billion through 2038, as we simplify processes and add operational flexibility to our system.”

“We are also increasing our Florida capital plan by $4 billion, funded by a portion of the sale proceeds.”

“We are now targeting FFO to debt of 15%, a 100 basis point increase versus our previous target.”

“So we think our 1.5% to 2% load growth for 2025 is intact fully, in the first quarter was evidence that we're right in line with that.”

“We invested more than $3 billion of capital in the quarter and we're on track for $15 billion for the full year.”

“We are delivering on all credit supportive initiatives and are firmly on track to achieve 14% FFO to debt this year, and we expect to improve above 14% over the 5-year plan.”

“We remain confident in our outlook and are reaffirming our 2025 guidance range of $6.17 to $6.42 and our long-term EPS growth rate of 5% to 7% through 2029.”

“If there is a catalyst, we will definitely update the investment community. But until then, I would kind of look to February as our major capital update cycle.”

“As we disclosed in February, we expect to issue $1 billion of common equity this year via our DRIP and ATM programs.”

“Finally, our Kentucky electric rate case is progressing with hearings scheduled for later this month, and we expect to implement new rates later this year.”

“So we think that 2026 planning has been underway for many months now as we think about the years ahead and we were well-positioned to deliver on that growth range as we look at the plan.”

“Yes, Julien, I think we look at our 5-year plan and our 5% to 7% growth and feel very good about that growth outlook And good start to '25 obviously helps every year in front of it.”

“Moving to Slide 10, we remain confident in delivering our 2025 earnings guidance range of $6.17 to $6.42 and 5% to 7% earnings growth through 2029 with the potential to earn the top half of the range as load growth accelerates in the back end of the plan.”

“We currently estimate the impact of tariffs to be about 1% to 3% of our 5-year capital plan.”

“As we look ahead, we continue to expect load growth to accelerate beginning in 2027 as economic development projects come online.”

“We expect the application process to take about a year and are targeting January 2027 for the effective date of the merger.”

“We intend to seek similar extensions for each of our remaining reactors to extend their respective licensing periods.”

“Those are gonna be caught up in 2025.”

“Finally, we expect results of the other segment to be driven by higher interest expense and modest share dilution to fund our growing capital plan.”

“In addition to rate activity, our plan assumes normal weather and retail sales growth of 1.5% to 2% in 2025.”

“As we think about our FFO to debt and the size of and scale of Duke Energy, I firmly believe 100 basis points of cushion from the Moody's downgrade threshold gives us flexibility to execute our plans with confidence and to deal with uncertainties that come our way.”

“So we clearly see the 5% to 7% over the five years in the top half in the back end of the plan.”

“As we look ahead, our robust capital plan, strong customer growth, and constructive jurisdictions position us to deliver 5% to 7% growth through 2029 with the potential to earn higher in the range as load growth accelerates in the back end of the plan.”

“Our confidence in this forecast is underpinned by significant economic development projects coming online, particularly in the Carolinas, which we see growing at 4% to 5% over the same period.”

“Turning to slide nine, beginning in 2027, we see an acceleration in volumes, with annual load growth increasing to 3% to 4% at the enterprise.”

“And, you know, on the earnings question, I would just say that load growth in 2027, 2028, 2029 is a step change for us. It moves up from the 1.5% to 2% we're seeing in 2025 and 2026 to a 3% to 4% across the enterprise.”

“As we look through time, operating cash flow does accelerate. We're making more investment. Those investments are turning into top-line revenues. And we see the 14% improving.”

“But, you know, the long-term planning assumption we have is around the 1% CAGR on O&M growth, and that's, again, much less than the assets and customers we're adding.”

“I will say as our asset base grows to serve a larger customer base, O&M is gonna increase. We will continue our continuous improvements efforts to keep those increases much smaller than the additional customers we're serving or the revenue that comes with them.”

“David, I would say as we look at the pipeline over the last year, it has continued to increase. And if we look out to 2029, for example, 50% of the pipeline is now data centers.”

“You know, David, we're not gonna get that specific on the day, but we do see load growth stepping up in 2027 and that's in our slides and that's when a lot of these economic development projects that are under construction now will start taking energy and will start serving them.”

“As we look out in time, we've guided to above 14%, which gives us over 100 basis points like you mentioned above Moody's downgrade threshold and over 200 in S&P.”

“To support these credit objectives and fund accretive growth, we increased equity funding to $6.5 billion over the next five years.”

“Our long-term target provides over 100 basis points of cushion above our Moody's downgrade threshold and over 200 basis points above our S&P downgrade threshold.”

“With our updated capital plan, we now expect roughly 7.7% annual earnings base growth through 2029, a 50 basis point increase from our prior plan.”

“In the near term, we're planning for annual load growth between 1.5% to 2% at the enterprise.”

“And finally, the continuation of our 5% to 7% EPS growth rate through 2029 with the potential to earn higher in the range as the years progress.”

“An $83 billion capital plan, which drives 7.7% earnings-based growth.”

“So we feel really good about where we stand on credit and that's why we have a lot of confidence in our 2025 credit outlook.”

“So on the credit, I mentioned that the storm costs are going to temporarily impact our credit in 2024. And as we recover these costs through established mechanisms in '25 that will be resolved.”

“Beginning with the Electric segment, in Florida, we'll implement the new multi-year rate plan with an updated 10.3% ROE in January.”

“We have our CPCNs for some of the gas generations that we expect to hear back from by the end of the year as well to proceed with those constructions projects at Person County.”

“We will be filing updates to those plans next year, but don't anticipate a tremendous difference in what we're planning.”

“We will be filing the CPCN at the Cayuga plant at the beginning of next year and expect to be moving forward with the plan in the IRP as we progress into next year.”

“We signaled 40 basis points to 60 basis points of FFO to debt improvement from these tax credit sales in 2024, and that equates to about $300 million to $500 million of monetized tax credits in a year. And so you could think about it in that kind of range for the next several years.”

“Nick, we have $500 million of equity in our capital plan and our financing plan today per year in the five-year plan. And in February, we'll come up with our new capital plan, which I've signaled will be higher.”

“And as we look to next year, we'll have more of both, right, more nuclear, more solar. And so you see it being accretive to the FFO for a few years to come.”

“And what that equates to is about 40 basis points to 60 basis points in the FFO to debt, right?”

“the size that we were targeting coming into the year, Julien, was around $300 million to $500 million. We're trending to the upper part of that range, right?”

“So what we're seeing in the tax credit market, it's deepening. And the discounts that we're being able to realize on our tax credits are very attractive. So think about mid-90s or even slightly above.”

“And so you should expect the load growth to go up as we roll the plan forward.”

“And we are trending at the top and we expect that range to move as we look to next year, Shar. Because the economic development opportunities are not slowing down and they're very sizable.”

“And one, we've kept our CAGR of 1.5% to 2% long-term on load growth and signaling we're trending to the top end of that range and we'll update it in February.”

“On the tax credit monetization, we completed $200 million so far and we have contracts in place that we plan on closing in the next month to get to the top half of that range that we signaled earlier this year.”

“And as we think about where we're tracking on 2024, I would view us in the high 13s is where we plan on landing and that has some of the financing impacts from $2.5 billion of storm costs that we expect that we incurred in 2024.”

“We've collected over $3 billion of deferred fuel since 2023 and are on track to be at our normal level by year-end.”

“We expect additional transactions in the fourth quarter.”

“We also expect capital to increase in the near term as a result of a higher pace of customer additions and refresh cost estimates for generation investments that ramp up in the remainder of the decade.”

“We will provide 2025 earnings guidance in February along with updated load growth expectations and our refreshed capital and financing plans.”

“And in the Midwest, we expect the Indiana rate case to be effective in March.”

“Overall, we're seeing steady improvement in our rolling 12-month volumes and are trending toward our 2024 load growth target of 2%.”

“And as Lynn mentioned, we have cost agility initiatives underway to reduce spending, which will drive O&M lower in the fourth quarter compared to last year.”

“Looking ahead to the remainder of 2024, we expect fourth-quarter adjusted EPS to be higher than last year due to growth from rate increases in the electric and gas segments and higher sales volumes.”

“Our 2024 effective tax rate is tracking in line with our full-year guidance of 12% to 14%.”

“We expect an order in January of 2025.”

“New rates will be effective in January.”

“We expect to file a certificate of public convenience and necessity for new and expanded gas generation at Cayuga station in early 2025.”

“We expect an order by November 26th.”

“As a result and based on what we know today, we are reaffirming our 2024 guidance range, trending to the lower half.”

“Turning to Slide 12. We operate in constructive growing jurisdictions and the fundamentals of our business remain strong. Our track record of regulatory execution has us well-positioned to achieve our long-term 5% to 7% growth target through 2028”

“These tailwinds give us confidence in our long-term outlook and we are reaffirming our 5% to 7% EPS growth rate through 2028, up the midpoint of our 2024 range.”

“And so that amortization is very modest in '25 and '26. And then we'll get on a path of amortizing about 25% of them as generated in '28 and forward.”

“I think that's right, Shar. And if you look at the chart, you can see it kind of sitting in '27, '28.”

“Yes. I would just add, the projects that we're talking to customers about today will show up in late '27, '28 and ramp up in the balance of the decade. So you're going to see this kind of burst of activity that will be signing contracts that will come to reality in '27, '28, '29, when we see acceleration of load growth.”

“And over the long term, we see load growth at the top end of our 1.5% to 2% CAGR through 2028, with annual load growth accelerating in 2027 and 2028 as large economic development projects come online.”

“And we actually believe that the quantification of the mitigation could put us in a position where O&M is lower than '23.”

“We are in frequent dialogue with our largest customers and they continue to signal expectations for a recovery, but the timing has shifted into 2025.”

“We remain confident in delivering our 2024 earnings guidance range of $5.85 to $6.10 and growth of 5% to 7% through 2028.”

“We are on track to achieve 14% FFO to debt by the end of this year, which represents 100 basis points of cushion to our Moody's downgrade threshold.”

“I'm incredibly proud for the team for delivering an impressive first half, and we are on track to achieve full year results within our guidance range.”

“This keeps us on track to have 1,500 megawatts of solar on the Florida system by the end of the year.”

“We are reaffirming our 2024 guidance range of $5.85 to $6.10.”

“We don't expect that election to have an impact on the rulings we would receive in the Carolinas or in Indiana or Piedmont case.”

“So you could expect us to report on that later in the year, but we don't feel like the delay in the guidance from our early expectations will have any impact on our credit in 2024.”

“And our plans are to test the market on monetizing these PTCs in the third quarter.”

“But we still expect the formal guidance for the nuclear PTCs by the end of this year.”

“As economic development projects continue to come online throughout the second half of the year, we expect C&I load growth to accelerate.”

“Hearings concluded in North Carolina yesterday and South Carolina hearings will start in mid-September. We expect orders in both states by year-end.”

“With solutions like these, we expect customer rates to remain below the national average.”

“Nick, I would say we are comfortably positioned within the 5% to 7% and feel like it's strongly positioned when you look at this economic development for a sustained period of given you 5% to 7% through '28.”

“Those 3 things give us a high degree of confidence in the 5% to 7% at a minimum, extending that, but also presents the opportunity to earn at the top end of that range later in the period.”

“We operate in some of the most attractive jurisdictions for both the economic development and customer migration, which provide conviction in our 2% load growth forecast in 2024, and 1.5% to 2% load growth CAGR over the 5-year planning horizon.”

“We are also reaffirming our long-term EPS growth rate of 5% to 7% through 2028 based off of $5.98 midpoint for 2024.”

“We have it slated in our IRP to come online 600 megawatts in 2035 at our Belews Creek station.”

“As Brian indicated, we see a lot of growth in that '27-'28 period with the economic development pipeline. So that gives us the opportunity to earn at the higher end of the range. If those projects mature at the pace we expect.”

“And I would say that with the economic development pipeline we're looking at today, we're trending to the high end of that 1.5% to 2%.”

“As disclosed in February, we expect to issue $500 million of common equity annually over the 5-year plan via our DRIP and ATM programs.”

“We are forecasting unprecedented growth in power demand from advanced manufacturing projects across multiple sectors as well as data centers.”

“Looking ahead, we plan to build 12 solar plants between 2025 and 2027, adding another 900 megawatts of clean energy to the Florida grid.”

“We expect CPCN orders from the NCUC by the year-end and pending approvals, construction is planned to start in 2026 with all units operational by 2028.”

“They're still signaling a rebound later in '24 or maybe early '25, but we feel like the mix might be a little different, but the growth in '24 is on top or better than our expectations.”

“Combined with the collection of remaining deferred fuel balances, monetization of tax credits and programmatic equity issuances, we have clear line of sight to achieving our target.”

“which underpins our confidence in our 2% volume growth forecast in 2024 and 1.5% to 2% growth rate over the 5-year planning horizon”

“We remain confident in our outlook and are reaffirming our 2024 guidance range of $5.85 to $6.10 and our long-term EPS growth rate of 5% to 7% through 2028.”

“So we are on track for our 2% growth in 2024, and we'll keep you apprised as we learn more.”

“And they signaled to us that, look, this is a temporary thing, and we're going to be changing our lines and by mid-Q2, late Q2, we're coming back on in full.”

“On the commercial growth, we saw strength across our regions in the commercial sector. Data center growth was a key driver in that in the quarter, and we expect that to continue throughout the year.”

“And lastly, on the second half of the year, we expect to monetize tax credits from the IRA and that's the last component.”

“We did $100 million in Q1, and we'll continue that throughout the year to get to $500 million by the end of the year.”

“All the deferred fuel is on track to be fully recovered by the end of this year.”

“Yes. So Durgesh, we're in the process of our CIRP (sic) [ IRP ] proceedings. Well, we expect a hearing in July in North Carolina and in South Carolina in September, and we expect an order later this year in December and November for each of those states.”

“But repricing the preferred at the current rates, it doesn't make a whole lot of sense. So we're looking at ways to take that out and use other tools.”

“So we are trending to the higher end of that 1.5% to 2%, and we'll continue to update you during '24, if we see more opportunities materialize.”

“As disclosed in February, we expect to issue $500 million of common equity annually over the 5-year plan via our DRIP and ATM programs.”

“We are on track to achieve 14% FFO to debt by the end of this year, which represents 100 basis points of cushion to our Moody's downgrade threshold.”

“We plan to implement interim rates November 1 with the final order expected in January.”

“Even with the requested base rate increases, we expect overall customer bills to decrease in 2025 as fuel under recovery, storm restoration costs and legacy purchase power contracts expire at the end of the year.”

“We expect new rates to be implemented August 1.”

“All this gives us a high degree of confidence in our 5% to 7%. And as we look throughout the plan, probably later in the plan, pushes us in the higher end of the range.”

“We've made great progress in the first quarter, advancing rate cases and fleet transition projects across our footprint. As we embark on this period of significant infrastructure build, we have confidence that our investment plan will deliver sustainable value to shareholders and 5% to 7% earnings growth.”

“our long-term EPS growth rate of 5% to 7% through 2028”

“That's a good question, Anthony. And as we've mentioned in the Q4 call, 14% FFO for 2024, 14% plus as we look out in time. So we're not going to stay put at 14%. We're going to continue to improve it over time.”

“The plans still show that we're going to be out of coal by 2035.”

“As we look out in time, we see an expanding CapEx profile. We've guided $73 billion for 5 years, but over the 10-year plan, $170 billion to $180 billion.”

“We are gearing up to serve up to 18,000 gigawatt hours of additional load from these projects in 2028.”

“Pending regulatory approvals, construction is planned to start in 2026 with all units operational by the end of 2028.”

“These investments are part of our goal to have 30,000 megawatts of regulated renewables on our system by 2035.”

“In the Carolinas, we're completing annual solar procurements that will add approximately 1,500 megawatts to the grid each year beginning in 2027.”

“in our recently filed 10-year site plan, we expect to more than triple the amount of solar on our system by 2033”

“we see the payout ratio declining over the next five years we'll be under 70% in 2024.”

“So those three factors give us confidence that 2% load growth in 2024 is definitely in our sights.”

“The midpoint of $5.98 represents more than 7% growth over 2023.”

“And we signaled our agility of $300 million that we were pursuing in 2023. About half of it will be sustainable.”

“As we look forward in 2024, we're seeing a more consistent level of tax optimization that we had in previous years.”

“Yeah. So Steve you should think about DRIP as being about $200 million a year. It's about 40% of it.”

“the treasury group and team are already working on how we might execute in 2024 as well. So we do believe the market is developing.”

“we expect to qualify for several hundred million dollars per year of nuclear PTCs beginning in '24.”

“we expect our 2024 ETR will increase to between 12% and 14%.”

“Finally, we expect the other segment to be impacted by higher interest expense and a higher effective tax rate.”

“Within electric, we expect normal weather and retail volume growth of roughly 2%.”

“in Indiana we'll file CPCNs for new generation resources around midyear.”

“No, Durgesh, we endeavor to hit it every year, every year and that's how we plan our investments, that's how we plan our strategies around regulatory and otherwise and so that's how I would share it with you year-over-year.”

“On the impact of credit metrics, our goal, sure is to be minimum of 14%. So even in the event that, the credits could be impacted in some way over time. We still believe we'll have time to adjust.”

“The fundamentals of our business are stronger than ever, giving us confidence in our ability to deliver sustainable value and 5% to 7% growth through 2028.”

“These economic development and customer migration trends give us confidence in our 1.5% to 2% load growth expectation over the forecast period.”

“as we reliably exit coal by 2035.”

“We are now projecting $73 billion in CapEx over the next five years, an $8 billion increase versus our previous plan.”

“This represents 6% growth from our original 2023 guidance and we extended our 5% to 7% EPS growth rate through 2028 off the midpoint of our 2024 range.”

“Yeah. You start to see it. The largest capital spend is in the last couple of years is construction as you know from history on these. But you'll see us beginning to ramp up well within this five-year period.”

“So 2028, 2029 Steve. Combined cycle plants two and 2028 -- or I'm sorry CTs two and 2028 CCs one and 2028 one and 2029.”

“Over the next five years, we anticipate a steady decline in the payout ratio and we are adjusting our target payout ratio to 60% to 70% from 65% to 75%.”

“We expect to raise $500 million annually over the five-year plan starting in 2024, using at the market and dividend reinvestment programs.”

“Over time our capital plan has steadily increased as we move further into the clean energy transition, supporting a 7.2% earnings base CAGR through 2028.”

“In 2024, we expect O&M to be largely flat to 2023, offsetting inflationary pressures with sustainable efficiencies and we will continue to target a flat cost structure over the five-year plan.”

“Our plan will add over 1000 megawatts of new solar and include over $3 billion of grid investments to serve population growth, increased reliability and reduced storm-related outages.”

“We expect growth in our service territories to accelerate, as we move further into the energy transition driving substantial investment.”

“That's right. Yes. We're there, John. We have line of sight to the Q4 efforts because a lot of it was tied to the fall outage season as well as just a culmination of work that takes a couple of months to implement, and we've evaluated the ability to keep those going on for 2024 and beyond, and we've confirmed that.”

“We're going to make 50% sustainable.”

“We think '24 will be lower than '23, and that's just part of our conviction to continue to drive productivity and efficiency in our operations.”

“We have executed on that throughout 2023 and have been confident that the 75% is going to 100% that we'll be able to sustain all of it into 2024.”

“So Nick, I would confirm that it does underpin our confidence in 5% to 7% growth.”

“And we think 50% of those are sustainable into 2024.”

“And as we talked about all of the work we're doing on cost structure, our objective is to offset the impact of interest rates in 2024.”

“So, we see positive shoots coming out, and we do see this industrial load in the Carolinas turning as we talk to customers kind of mid to late next year.”

“And then I think you know on our regular schedule in Florida, we will be updating the multi-rate plan effective 1/1/25 and so expectations for capital spending there will be updated.”

“And so, if you look across all of the types of megawatts from solar to battery, natural gas, et cetera, you see an increase there, and that will become reflected more fully in our capital plan, of course, working through that process with the commission in '24”

“We're on pace to recover $1.7 billion of deferred fuel costs in 2023 and expect our deferred fuel balance to be back in line with our historical average by the end of 2024.”

“we expect our culture of continuous improvement to drive 2024 O&M to be lower than 2023 and significantly below our spending level in 2022.”

“We expect interest rates to be higher for longer, resulting in increased financing cost in 2024.”

“Additionally, while we continue to closely monitor customer usage trends, we expect higher weather-normalized volumes driven by economic development activity and residential customer growth.”

“From a load perspective, we project a pickup in 2024 from return to normal weather.”

“For example, in 2024, we expect economic development projects coming online will add between 1,000 and 2,000 gigawatt hours.”

“As we look to the fourth quarter, we expect a strong finish to the year, targeting $1.50 to $1.60 per share.”

“To mitigate the impact, we have increased our 2023 agility target to $0.30, which includes tactical O&M savings a lower effective tax rate and other levers.”

“We expect the NCUC to issue its decision by the end of the year and expect permanent rates to be in effect by January 2024.”

“we will be targeting a minimum of 14% as we go forward and feel like we have the tools to accomplish that.”

“We operate in constructive growing jurisdictions, which combined with our $65 billion five-year capital plan, strong operations and cost efficiency capabilities give us confidence in our 5% to 7% growth rate through 2027.”

“As we look further out, we have line of sight to 7,000 to 9,000 gigawatt hours by the end of 2027, giving us confidence in our 0.5 to 1% growth rate.”

“I'm confident we're well positioned to deliver sustainable value and 5% to 7% earnings growth over the next five years.”

“This positions us well for the future and gives us confidence in reaffirming our long-term earnings growth rate of 5% to 7%.”

“With these positive developments, we are targeting FFO to debt between 13% and 14% in 2023 and 14% in 2024 through 2027.”

“The filing included details about our annual solar procurement, which targets over a gigawatt of new solar each year beginning in 2027.”

“And what I would further say is, we have evaluated this. Residential, of course, return to work, but we think we're probably where that return to work trend is situated. Meaning no more impact from return to work, I think we've pretty well worked ourselves through that transition.”

“As part of this balanced approach, we will evaluate modest funding through our dividend reinvestment plan and at the market program.”

“If approved by the commission, this settlement would provide savings for customers and be supportive to our credit metrics.”

“So we've seen a slight dial down in usage, but we don't see that persisting into the long term in the future.”

“We believe the range -- we can reaffirm the range. The range still represents the potential we have for 2023, and we'll update within that range at the end of the third quarter.”

“These actions are credit positive, and we expect to see continued balance sheet improvement into 2024 as we recover the remaining deferred fuel costs and see the full year impact of both North Carolina rate cases.”

“In addition, about $1.5 billion of commercial renewables debt will come off the balance sheet when the transactions close further supporting metrics.”

“As Lynn mentioned, we expect to complete the sale of our commercial renewables business by the end of the year, and will use proceeds for debt avoidance at the holding company.”

“And expect our deferred fuel balance to be back in line with our historical average by the end of 2024.”

“Across our jurisdictions, we're on pace to recover 1.7 of deferred fuel costs in 2023.”

“Per the agreement, we would recover approximately 1 billion of deferred fuel by the end of 2024.”

“We're monitoring the impact of macroeconomic trends but the underlying fundamentals, residential customer growth, and commercial and industrial investment continue to support long term growth at roughly 0.5% per year.”

“Looking ahead, residential decoupling in North Carolina will be fully implemented in 2024.”

“We expect the commission to issue an order later this month for the final DEP rates going into effect October 1.”

“With our largest quarter ahead, we are reaffirming our guidance range for 2023 and we'll have more to say on projected results for the year on the third quarter call.”

“And I would again note that we're reaffirming our guidance range for '23 and continue to believe we can grow at 5% to 7% over the long term based on the fundamentals in the business.”

“We operate in constructive growing jurisdictions, which combined with our $65 billion five-year capital plan give us confidence in our 5% to 7% growth rate through 2027.”

“Our long term fundamentals remain as strong as ever, and we're well positioned to deliver sustainable value and 5% to 7% earnings growth over the next five years.”

“As we look ahead, the fundamentals of our business are strong, and we are reaffirming our 5% to 7% growth rate.”

“Many of our large customers are expanding, and we partnered with our states to attract over 29,000 new jobs and $23 billion in capital investment in 2022. These investments represent several key sectors such as battery, EVs and semiconductors, and we expect they will provide around 2000 megawatts of demand as operations ramp up.”

“We've added 300 megawatts of new solar this year and now operate 1200 megawatts in the state, with plans to continue adding about 300 megawatts per year over the next decade.”

“So we do feel like this is bracketed into January and February as far as the weakness and we feel confident that our 0.5% load growth in 2023 and the long-term outlook around a 0.5% is right for us because of the customer growth we're seeing at 1.7% as well as the industrial expansions and economic development activity in our regions.”

“And so the combination of all of these activities as well as the fact we enter any given year expecting a range of outcomes and establishing contingencies that are planning in case something doesn't work out exactly as planned, we are confident in reaffirming the range of $5.55 to $5.75.”

“We remain confident in delivering our 2023 earnings guidance range of $5.55 to $5.75 and growth of 5% to 7% through 2027.”

“In March and April, when weather was closer to normal, volume trends were more consistent with expectations, giving us confidence that the full-year 2023 load growth will be in the neighborhood of 0.5%.”

“With three quarters remaining, including our strongest quarters still ahead, we are reaffirming our 2023 guidance range of $5.55 to $5.75 with a midpoint of $5.65.”

“We will update the IRP again in 2024 and continue to evaluate whether we're moving at the right pace around the energy transition.”

“Combined, we expect these two items fuel collections and the completed sale will positively impact FFO to debt by 50 basis points to 75 basis points by year end.”

“In addition, we continue to expect proceeds from the sale of commercial renewables in the second half of this year, which will be used for debt avoidance at the holding company.”

“These new customers, which represent several key sectors such as battery, EVs and semiconductors, will provide meaningful load growth as operations ramp up.”

“We are in the process of finalizing CPCNs, which we expect to begin filing with the Indiana Commission later this quarter.”