Regional demand divergence: Europe and China softness
52 statements on the record across 4 companies, ordered by how much each has said. Every quote is verbatim from its call.
Across CAT, DE, EMR and MMM, Europe and China are described as persistently soft but with clearly divergent timing and severity. CAT expects European weakness to persist through 2025 while China excavator activity, though still from a very low base, has been upgraded twice to full-year growth for the above 10 ton industry [m2636, m3010, m3009, m3008, m2558, m2817]; DE instead projects European industry sales down 5% to 10% in 2025 on deteriorating farm fundamentals, extending 2024's downturn, with Asia only slightly weaker and India ag improving [m2917, m2932, m2919]. EMR's picture flips over time: Europe was called strong in mid-2024, actually rose 7% by year end on LNG and life sciences, but turned flat by early 2026 with Benelux and Germany challenged, while China worsened from soft chemicals in 2024 to a newly bearish outlook of low single digit decline by February 2026 [m2752, m2730, m2905, m2906, m2889]. MMM's China exposure decelerated from up 13% in first-half 2024 to mid-single digit growth by mid-2025, while Europe stayed in low single digit decline with weak auto builds and soft aftermarket demand persisting through 2025 [m3078, m3079, m2970, m2971, m2612, m2798, m2617, m2800, m2799].
In August 2024 Karsanbhai described Europe as strong, particularly Western Europe energy and MRO, while China was weaker across most segments and Test & Measurement was expected to recover only in the second half of 2025. [m2752, m2749, m2751] By November 2024 Baughman reported Europe actually up 7% on LNG, sustainability and life sciences strength, while China finished the year down 3% on weak chemical and discrete demand. [m2730, m2729] In May 2025 Karsanbhai still saw China chemical softness with no confidence in near term demand, but flagged nascent China export EPC growth, coal and nuclear power gains, and planned for gradual China improvement aided by easier comps. [m2701, m2703, m2702, m2683] By February 2026 Krishnan and Karsanbhai reported Europe still flat for the year with Benelux and Germany challenged, and China's outlook turned more bearish, now expected down low single digits for the year. [m2905, m2906, m2889]
Show the 20 verbatim statements
#m2752 · 2024-08-07 · Lal Karsanbhai · STATED
“Europe is seeing continued strength in energy, power and sustainability markets as well as our MRO business, particularly in Western Europe.”
#m2749 · 2024-08-07 · Lal Karsanbhai · STATED
“Additionally, for total Emerson, we saw a weaker demand environment in China across most of our business segments.”
#m2750 · 2024-08-07 · Lal Karsanbhai · STATED
“Transportation and semiconductor markets remain weak, while aerospace and defense performed well, and we saw continued government spending and research.”
#m2751 · 2024-08-07 · Lal Karsanbhai · STATED · by second half of 2025
“The European market was softer than expected amid lingering EV demand concerns, and China remains sluggish across most Test & Measurement segments. Due to this, we are looking into second half of 2025 for recovery in this business.”
#m2753 · 2024-08-07 · Lal Karsanbhai · STATED
“In the Americas, broad-based healthy growth across Latin America was slightly offset by slower MRO in North America.”
#m2754 · 2024-08-07 · Lal Karsanbhai · STATED
“Robust performance in the Middle East, driven by strong project activity was offset by broad-based weakness in Asia.”
#m2781 · 2024-08-07 · Lal Karsanbhai · STATED
“I'd suggest stable, Andy, at this point.”
#m2731 · 2024-11-05 · Mike Baughman · STATED
“Americas also performed well, up 4%, led by power, LNG, metals and mining and life sciences.”
#m2730 · 2024-11-05 · Mike Baughman · STATED
“Europe was up 7% with sustained strength in LNG, sustainability and decarbonization and life sciences.”
#m2729 · 2024-11-05 · Mike Baughman · STATED
“China was down 3% for the year as chemical and discrete were low amidst weak demand.”
#m2704 · 2025-05-07 · Lal Karsanbhai · STATED
“In terms of factory automation, automotive has a big element to that for us, both in China and in Germany.”
#m2703 · 2025-05-07 · Lal Karsanbhai · STATED
“We're also seeing nascent growth in China of export EPC business. These are Chinese homegrown EPCs that are now beginning to take their skills and capabilities around the world.”
#m2702 · 2025-05-07 · Lal Karsanbhai · STATED
“Having said that, there are other segments in China that are interesting, particularly around power generation in coal and nuclear, and we're benefiting from those investments.”
#m2701 · 2025-05-07 · Lal Karsanbhai · STATED
“China predominantly softness in both chemical. We don't see project activity, spend activity to give us confidence in demand in that segment.”
#m2682 · 2025-05-07 · Lal Karsanbhai · STATED · by first half
“First half growth was led by Asia and The Middle East and Africa, with robust investment in energy and LNG projects offsetting continued weakness in China, specifically bulk chemical.”
#m2683 · 2025-05-07 · Lal Karsanbhai · STATED
“We are planning for gradual improvement in China, aided by easier comps and investment momentum in power and marine.”
#m2689 · 2025-05-07 · Ram Krishnan · STATED
“As you can see, most of our gross impact is driven by the 125% reciprocal tariff on imports from China, while the Mexico impact is significantly mitigated as 80% of our supply into the US from Mexico qualifies for USMCA exemptions.”
#m2905 · 2026-02-03 · Ram Krishnan · STATED · by for the year
“We're seeing continued flat activity in Europe for the year. Certainly, are industries such as automotive packaging, but certainly chemicals. In in places like Benelux in in Germany that are still very challenged.”
#m2906 · 2026-02-03 · Ram Krishnan · STATED · by for the year
“And then our outlook on China has turned a little more bearish as we navigated another quarter. We now believe that we'll be down low single digits for the year.”
#m2889 · 2026-02-03 · Surendralal Karsanbhai · STATED
“North America, India, and The Middle East and Africa continue to show robust demand, while we are seeing ongoing softness in Europe and China.”
In August 2024, Umpleby and Bonfield said weak European conditions and low Chinese excavator demand would persist for the remainder of the year, with Bonfield noting Europe seemed to be bottoming. [m2874, m2875, m2876, m2847, m2873] By January 2025, Umpleby reiterated that weak European conditions would continue through the year, offset by healthy Africa and Middle East activity, a view Creed repeated in April 2025 while also flagging soft Asia Pacific outside China. [m2636, m3010, m3009] Creed said in April 2025 that China excavator activity showed positive momentum from a very low base, a signal he upgraded in August and October 2025 to expect full year growth in the above 10 ton industry, still from a very low level. [m3008, m2558, m2817]
Show the 15 verbatim statements
#m2874 · 2024-08-06 · Andrew Bonfield · STATED · by remainder of the year
“Obviously, it's depending what happens there, obviously, you've seen the ECB cut rates. There is, for example, today in the UK that we talked about construction -- actually growth in construction this last month. So hopefully, it is starting to pick up, but our assumption really is that it doesn't pick up that quickly for the remainder of the year.”
#m2875 · 2024-08-06 · James Umpleby · STATED
“We anticipate demand in China will remain at a relatively low level for the above 10 ton excavator industry.”
#m2876 · 2024-08-06 · James Umpleby · STATED
“In the EAME, we anticipate that weak economic conditions in Europe will continue, somewhat offset by continued healthy construction demand in the Middle East.”
#m2847 · 2024-08-06 · James Umpleby · STATED
“Sales to users declined in the EAME, primarily due to weakness in Europe relating to residential construction and economic conditions.”
#m2873 · 2024-08-06 · Andrew Bonfield · STATED
“Europe, as we indicated, has been a problem. It's been a problem. I think most of our competitors have made similar comments as well. It does seem to be a little bit on the bottom.”
#m2636 · 2025-01-30 · Jim Umpleby · STATED · by 2025
“In EAME, we anticipate weak economic conditions in Europe will continue and a healthy level of construction activity in Africa and the Middle East.”
#m3010 · 2025-04-30 · Joe Creed · STATED
“In the EAME, weak economic conditions in Europe remain, while conditions are supportive of investment in Africa and the Middle East.”
#m3009 · 2025-04-30 · Joe Creed · STATED
“In Asia Pacific outside of China, economic conditions continue to be soft.”
#m3008 · 2025-04-30 · Joe Creed · STATED
“China has shown positive momentum in the 10-ton and above excavator industry, but from a very low level of activity.”
#m3011 · 2025-04-30 · Joe Creed · STATED · by throughout the year
“Construction activity in Latin America is expected to decline moderately throughout the year.”
#m2550 · 2025-08-05 · Joseph E. Creed · STATED
“Sales to users increased in EAME primarily due to growth in Africa and the Middle East. However, overall growth in EAME was below our expectations due to weakness in Europe.”
#m2558 · 2025-08-05 · Joseph E. Creed · STATED · by full year 2025
“China has shown positive momentum to start the year, and we expect full year growth in the -- in the above 10-ton excavator industry, but from a very low level of activity.”
#m2818 · 2025-10-29 · Joseph Creed · STATED · by full year
“In EAME, we expect growth for the year, driven by healthy construction activity in Africa and the Middle East and improving economic conditions in Europe.”
#m2812 · 2025-10-29 · Joseph Creed · STATED
“We saw a decline in Asia Pacific, which was below our expectations, resulting from softness in a few key subregions.”
#m2817 · 2025-10-29 · Joseph Creed · STATED · by full year
“China has shown positive momentum to start the year, and we expect full year growth in the above 10-ton excavator industry but from a very low level of activity.”
Brown said China was about 10% of revenue and up 13% in first-half 2024, with local-for-local growth flattish near 1%. [m3078, m3079] By January 2025 Brown expected China to slow to low single digits for the year and flagged Europe as a watch area even as forecasts pointed to a turnaround from decline to growth. [m2992, m2991] Maheshwari reported Q4 2024 China up high single digits on electronics and tariff front-loading, while EMEA fell low single digits on weak auto builds; in April and July 2025 China growth moderated to mid-single digits while Europe stayed down low single digits with continued high-to-low single digit auto build declines. [m2970, m2971, m2612, m2614, m2798, m2617, m2800] Maheshwari noted auto aftermarket demand remained weak through mid-2025, down mid-single digits with collision repair claim rates down double digits year-to-date. [m2799]
Show the 13 verbatim statements
#m3079 · 2024-07-26 · William Brown · STATED
“When you look at the piece that's sort of local for local, if you will, it's about 1% so flattish and pretty similar to what other multinational, maybe even a little better than what a lot of other multinationals are seeing in China.”
#m3078 · 2024-07-26 · William Brown · STATED · by first half
“China for us is about 10% of our revenue. We had a good first half. We're up about 13% in the first half and part of that is electronics.”
#m2992 · 2025-01-21 · Bill Brown · STATED · by 2025
“The current forecast is it does turn positive from minus 0.3% to plus 0.5%, I think is what it was in 2025. Europe, we have to watch. We've got a pretty good presence in Europe as well. It's a very big turnaround in Europe from down 60 basis points to up 130 basis points next year.”
#m2970 · 2025-01-21 · Anurag Maheshwari · STATED · by fourth quarter
“Geographically, our growth was led by China, up high-single-digits, driven by our electronics business where we continue to gain share and saw modest front-loading from an anticipated change in tariffs.”
#m2971 · 2025-01-21 · Anurag Maheshwari · STATED · by fourth quarter
“The U.S. was up low-single digits despite the challenging macro backdrop with growth in Aerospace and general industrial. And EMEA was down low-single digits due to the continued weak environment, including a high single-digit decline in auto builds.”
#m2991 · 2025-01-21 · Bill Brown · STATED · by 2025
“We do expect that our business in China will be slower in '25 than it was in 2024, probably in the low single-digit range is what we expect for revenue for 3M in China.”
#m2613 · 2025-04-22 · Anurag Maheshwari · STATED
“The US was up low single digits despite the challenging macro backdrop with continued high demand for cable accessories and strength in aerospace, partially offset by weakness in auto.”
#m2617 · 2025-04-22 · Anurag Maheshwari · STATED
“Our auto OEM business was down mid-single digits reflecting continued weakness in auto builds particularly in Europe and the US, which were each down high single digits year on year.”
#m2614 · 2025-04-22 · Anurag Maheshwari · STATED
“Europe was down low single digits due to the continued weak environment, including a high single-digit decline in auto builds.”
#m2612 · 2025-04-22 · Anurag Maheshwari · STATED
“China was up mid-single digits with strength in the industrial business and electronic bonding solutions, driven by share gains with key accounts and increased orders ahead of tariff actions.”
#m2798 · 2025-07-18 · Anurag Maheshwari · STATED
“By geography, our growth was led by China, up mid-single digits with strength in industrial adhesives, films and electronics bonding solutions driven by strong commercial execution that led to share gains.”
#m2800 · 2025-07-18 · Anurag Maheshwari · STATED
“our auto OEM business was down low single digits, reflecting continued weakness in auto builds, particularly in Europe and the U.S., which were each down low single digits year-on-year.”
#m2799 · 2025-07-18 · Anurag Maheshwari · STATED · by year-to-date
“Auto aftermarket continued to see challenges down mid-single digits amid industry pressure with collision repair claim rates down double digits year-to-date.”
For 2025, Jepsen projected the European industry down 5% to 10% as farm fundamentals continue to deteriorate, extending the region's 2024 downturn. [m2917, m2932] Jepsen projected Asia industry sales down slightly in 2025, citing foundational technology adoption and improving ag fundamentals in India as moderate demand tailwinds. [m2919]
Show the 4 verbatim statements
#m2919 · 2024-11-21 · Josh Jepsen · STATED · by 2025
“Finally, industry sales in Asia are projected to be down slightly, as foundational technology adoption and improving ag fundamentals in India provide moderate demand tailwinds.”
#m2932 · 2024-11-21 · Josh Jepsen · STATED · by 2024
“2024 was a tough year for the region. We really saw a perfect storm of factors: depressed commodity prices, lower yields, regional conflicts, and frustration with ag policy that ultimately drove a retail sales decline much greater than normal for a market that is traditionally less volatile than North and South America.”
#m2934 · 2024-11-21 · Josh Jepsen · STATED · by coming year
“As we look at the impact on equipment sales in the coming year, it's important to highlight the varying dynamics across each of our primary regions.”
#m2917 · 2024-11-21 · Josh Jepsen · STATED · by 2025
“In Europe, the industry is projected to be down between 5% and 10%. Farm fundamentals in the region continue to deteriorate.”
OPEN is an unresolved commitment on the clock; STATED is on the record without a checkable bar and is never counted or scored. Method: methodology.