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Tariff headwinds and mitigation strategies

50 statements on the record across 3 companies, ordered by how much each has said. Every quote is verbatim from its call.

THE FIFTEEN-SECOND READ

Across CAT, EMR, and MMM, tariffs are treated as a real but partly manageable cost headwind, with each company sizing exposure in the hundreds of millions to over a billion dollars and layering mitigation through sourcing shifts, pricing, and manufacturing reconfiguration [m2663, m2687, m2621]. CAT has raised its full year 2025 net tariff impact estimate to $1.3 billion to $1.5 billion, with Bonfield and Creed flagging a heavier second half and continued headwind into 2026 given fluid trade negotiations [m3003, m2578, m2841, m2592]. EMR stands apart in claiming full mitigation of its $245 million gross exposure within 2025, crediting regionalization and pricing, and even flagged a net positive tailwind by February 2026 from reduced China fentanyl tariffs [m2669, m2691, m2912]. MMM moved from a wait-and-watch stance in January to quantifying an approximately $850 million annualized gross impact by April, then reported by July it was already offsetting $0.20 of that impact through cost, sourcing, and price actions [m2986, m2622, m2808]. The companies diverge most on confidence in offsetting timing, with EMR asserting near-term full mitigation while CAT and MMM describe ongoing, partially unresolved headwinds tied to trade policy uncertainty [m2691, m2842, m2609].

CAT21MMM17EMR12
CAT21 statements

Umpleby and Creed described CAT as a net exporter with its largest manufacturing base in the U.S., positioning it well versus peers, though some products move across borders. [m2663, m2664, m3004] Creed estimated Q2 tariff costs of $250 million to $350 million, then Bonfield raised the full year 2025 net impact estimate to $1.3 billion to $1.5 billion, with the headwind heavier in the second half and largest in Q4. [m3003, m2578, m2548, m2554, m2579] Bonfield said tariffs will remain a headwind into 2026, while Creed called trade negotiations still fluid and too uncertain to treat any impact as permanent. [m2841, m2844, m2592] Creed said CAT is pursuing USMCA compliant product certification and evaluating further mitigation, but longer-term actions to offset tariffs require investment and time and await sufficient certainty. [m2583, m2555, m2815, m2842]

Show the 21 verbatim statements
#m2663 · 2025-01-30 · Jim Umpleby · STATED

We are a global manufacturer but our largest manufacturing presence is in the United States, and we are a net exporter outside of the U.S., and that positions us pretty well versus many other companies out there.

#m2664 · 2025-01-30 · Jim Umpleby · STATED

Having said that, as you say, we do tend to try to produce in region for region, but yes, some products and components particularly move around. But as you can imagine, it’s something we keep a close eye on and we’ll deal with it.

#m3002 · 2025-04-30 · Joe Creed · STATED

However, the potential impact of tariffs has increased uncertainty and the situation remains fluid.

#m3004 · 2025-04-30 · Joe Creed · STATED

Caterpillar is a global company and we have manufacturing locations around the world. Our largest manufacturing base is in the United States, where we employ over 50,000 full-time employees. And we continue to be a net exporter.

#m3003 · 2025-04-30 · Joe Creed · STATED · by second quarter

Additionally, for the second quarter, the tariffs which have been announced and implemented this year are currently estimated to be a cost headwind of about $250 million to $350 million.

#m2579 · 2025-08-05 · Andrew R. J. Bonfield · STATED · by fourth quarter

Due to the timing of recent rate changes, the headwind is likely to be larger in the fourth quarter when compared to the third quarter.

#m2581 · 2025-08-05 · Joseph E. Creed · STATED

We've built a global supply chain that's unique to us. It works for us. It's been developed over a significant amount of time, and it allows us -- the strategy behind that supply chain allows us to increase our footprint here in the U.S.

#m2582 · 2025-08-05 · Joseph E. Creed · STATED

Since 2016, our exports, in fact, have grown 75%. And over that same time period, we've been able to increase our hourly production workforce by around 29%.

#m2583 · 2025-08-05 · Joseph E. Creed · STATED

We're working on certification of USMCA compliant products.

#m2592 · 2025-08-05 · Joseph E. Creed · STATED

I think it's way too uncertain. And as Andrew just mentioned, things are still moving around to call anything permanent, right? So we're not thinking in those terms right now.

#m2548 · 2025-08-05 · Joseph E. Creed · STATED · by second half of 2025

the net impact of tariffs was around the top end of our estimated range for the quarter and is likely to be a more significant headwind to profitability in the second half of 2025.

#m2555 · 2025-08-05 · Joseph E. Creed · STATED

We will remain flexible and we intend to implement longer-term actions once there is sufficient certainty. We are considering all options to further reduce the impact of tariffs going forward.

#m2554 · 2025-08-05 · Joseph E. Creed · STATED · by remainder of 2025

the incremental tariffs announced in 2025 and expected to be in place by August 7 will be a headwind to profitability during the remainder of the year.

#m2571 · 2025-08-05 · Andrew R. J. Bonfield · STATED

With the decrease in certain tariff rates during the quarter, we lifted some holds on inbound shipments, such that the high inbound shipment volumes more than offset the lower tariff rates.

#m2578 · 2025-08-05 · Andrew R. J. Bonfield · STATED · by 2025

we expect the net impact from incremental tariffs for 2025 will be around $1.3 billion to $1.5 billion, net of some mitigating actions and cost controls.

#m2844 · 2025-10-29 · Joseph Creed · STATED

As we know, trade deals are still being negotiated, and we're watching that very closely, and we have a lot of scenarios at play.

#m2815 · 2025-10-29 · Joseph Creed · STATED

Tariff and trade negotiations remain fluid. Our team is continuously evaluating options to further reduce the impact of tariffs going forward, and we fully intend to implement longer-term actions once there is sufficient certainty.

#m2839 · 2025-10-29 · Joseph Creed · STATED

Tariffs as well are not evenly spread across there. So we're a very heavy North America footprint in E&T.

#m2841 · 2025-10-29 · Andrew R. Bonfield · STATED · by 2026

Tariffs will still obviously be a headwind as we move into 2026.

#m2842 · 2025-10-29 · Joseph Creed · STATED

If we're going to make longer-term adjustments to really offset tariffs in that way, it will require investments to do that, and they will take time because we'll have to certify components.

#m2843 · 2025-10-29 · Joseph Creed · STATED

We're a global business with a very complicated supply chain. We are heavily U.S.-based. It's our largest footprint here. We have over 50,000 employees, 65 locations in 25 states. We're a net exporter. We've increased exports 75% over the last 9 to 10 years.

MMM17 statements

In January 2025, CEO Bill Brown said 3M would watch tariff developments and update investors as the year progressed. [m2986] By April, CFO Anurag Maheshwari quantified exposure at $1.6B imports and $4.1B exports, with a total annualized tariff impact of approximately $850 million before mitigation, and said 90 days of inventory would bleed through by end of June before import impacts hit. [m2621, m2622, m2623, m2628] Brown said tariffs would be a headwind this year but held the impact out of full-year guidance while developing mitigation plans, citing sourcing shifts, bonded facilities, logistics changes, and one small divestiture already signed. [m2609, m2610, m2625, m2607] By July, Brown reported the company was already offsetting $0.20 of gross tariff impact, half via cost and sourcing changes and half via price, with pricing running ahead of inflation this year. [m2808, m2801]

Show the 17 verbatim statements
#m2986 · 2025-01-21 · Bill Brown · STATED

We've got a new administration in Washington. There's lots of conversations floating around tariffs. We'll see as the year goes by, both progress and traction of some of the initiatives we have internally plus what happens in the macro and we'll update investors accordingly.

#m2627 · 2025-04-22 · Bill Brown · STATED

We import in domestic and export customers in China. I think we do have some opportunities to shift around our network to bring product into China from other regions that don't have the same sort of tariff effect.

#m2628 · 2025-04-22 · Anurag Maheshwari · STATED · by end of June

We're not pausing any orders or any shipments right now. We have 90 days of inventory, so which will bleed through by the end of June, and then you'll start seeing the impact of the tariff on the imports after that.

#m2621 · 2025-04-22 · Anurag Maheshwari · STATED

As we have mentioned before, we import $1.6 billion into the US and export $4.1 billion from the US. China is approximately 10% of the imports, and slightly more on exports for a total trade flow of approximately $600 million between the US and China.

#m2611 · 2025-04-22 · Bill Brown · STATED

Some of which are no regret moves regardless of where trade policies eventually settle.

#m2624 · 2025-04-22 · Anurag Maheshwari · STATED

The team has responded quickly and is working on a number of mitigation plans including cost and productivity, initiatives, optimizing production and logistics, including leveraging our US footprint and selective price increases where feasible.

#m2625 · 2025-04-22 · Bill Brown · STATED

We're adjusting our trade flows, logistics flows, leveraging more bonded facilities, free trade zones, a little bit more point-to-point shipments on our logistics you know, that we might have done before in terms of hub and spoke.

#m2626 · 2025-04-22 · Bill Brown · STATED

We do see some of our competitors, some things have moved on the consumer side outside of the US, primarily China sourced, You know, we walked away from some of that business. Some of that might be private label today.

#m2609 · 2025-04-22 · Bill Brown · STATED · by this year

Tariffs are going to be a headwind this year, but we thought it would be prudent to hold the impact outside of our full-year guidance while I digest the new policies and fully develop and qualify mitigation plans.

#m2607 · 2025-04-22 · Bill Brown · STATED

We continue to advance our portfolio shaping efforts with one small divestiture recently signed and others progressing more slowly in view of trade policy uncertainty.

#m2606 · 2025-04-22 · Bill Brown · STATED

Having a robust baseline on underutilized capacity will help us adjust our sourcing strategy more readily to the changing trade landscape.

#m2610 · 2025-04-22 · Bill Brown · STATED

With the significant footprint we have in the US, and the flexibility of our global network, we're identifying a number of ideas to adjust product sourcing and logistics flows to mitigate at least a part of the impact.

#m2622 · 2025-04-22 · Anurag Maheshwari · STATED

These flows at the current tariff rates of 125% imports into China from US and 145% from China into US will equate to approximately $675 million of potential annualized tariff impact after anticipated exemptions.

#m2623 · 2025-04-22 · Anurag Maheshwari · STATED

In addition, tariffs on products not qualified under USMCA along with aluminum steel, and other reciprocal actions had an approximately $175 million impact a total annualized impact of approximately $850 million before any mitigation actions.

#m2809 · 2025-07-18 · William Brown · STATED

all of the U.S. retailers are looking very carefully at where their source of supply is, if it's coming from non-U.S. markets, it's important. Obviously, the tariff impact makes them a little less economic and makes us a little more attractive.

#m2808 · 2025-07-18 · William Brown · STATED

we're offsetting $0.20 of gross tariff with both cost and sourcing changes, which is about half of the offset and the other half is coming through price.

#m2801 · 2025-07-18 · William Brown · STATED · by this year

we are covering our inflation typically with a little bit more because of the tariff impacts coming through. So doing pretty well this year on pricing, again, mostly on the industrial side.

EMR12 statements

Emerson identified a $320 million annualized gross tariff impact on $1.6 billion of US imports, driven mainly by China's 125% reciprocal tariff, per Krishnan. [m2687, m2688, m2689] Karsanbhai said Emerson faces $245 million gross tariff exposure in 2025 and expects to fully mitigate it, while Krishnan said mitigation actions would completely offset fiscal 2025 headwinds with carryover coverage into 2026. [m2669, m2691] Krishnan attributed this mitigation capability to regionalization, targeted surcharges, pricing actions, and production reconfiguration across Emerson's global manufacturing footprint. [m2692, m2690, m2668] By February 2026, Krishnan noted positive relief from reduced China fentanyl tariffs, expecting a net positive for the year versus plan, though too early to quantify. [m2912, m2913]

Show the 12 verbatim statements
#m2692 · 2025-05-07 · Ram Krishnan · STATED

Clearly, our regionalization efforts over the years put us in a strong position to drive these actions with speed effectiveness.

#m2690 · 2025-05-07 · Ram Krishnan · STATED

We are mitigating these impacts through targeted surcharges and pricing actions, production reconfiguration using our global manufacturing footprint and additional supply chain regionalization initiatives.

#m2691 · 2025-05-07 · Ram Krishnan · STATED · by fiscal 2025 to 2026

These mitigation actions will completely offset the tariff headwinds in the fiscal year with carryover benefit to completely cover the full annualized impact we will encounter in 2026 under these assumptions.

#m2705 · 2025-05-07 · Lal Karsanbhai · STATED

We did not see any of that across our businesses. As you know, we're not a big stock inventory business within across the portfolio, but we have not seen any signs of pre buys, get ahead of tariffs or surcharges across the business.

#m2668 · 2025-05-07 · Lal Karsanbhai · STATED

Our long outstanding supply chain regionalization strategy and global footprint enable us to quickly respond to a variety of scenarios, including the recent tariffs.

#m2669 · 2025-05-07 · Lal Karsanbhai · STATED · by 2025

From these, we have a gross exposure of $245 million in 2025, which we expect to fully mitigate.

#m2679 · 2025-05-07 · Lal Karsanbhai · STATED

We are watching closely for signs of tariff induced impacts to demand, but we have not seen any widespread indications.

#m2687 · 2025-05-07 · Ram Krishnan · STATED · by 2024 annualized

On an annualized basis in 2024, Emerson imported $1.6 billion into the US, representing 19% of our annual cost of goods sold as raw materials and semi-finished products for our manufacturing plants and finished products to our distribution centers.

#m2688 · 2025-05-07 · Ram Krishnan · STATED · by annualized

The gross incremental tariff impact on these imports driven by IEEPA, steel, aluminum and reciprocal tariffs amounts to $320 million on an annualized basis.

#m2689 · 2025-05-07 · Ram Krishnan · STATED

As you can see, most of our gross impact is driven by the 125% reciprocal tariff on imports from China, while the Mexico impact is significantly mitigated as 80% of our supply into the US from Mexico qualifies for USMCA exemptions.

#m2912 · 2026-02-03 · Ram Krishnan · STATED

Yeah. I mean, obviously, a tariff perspective, the positive news on China, Aipa tariffs there, fentanyl tariffs going from twenty to ten.

#m2913 · 2026-02-03 · Ram Krishnan · STATED · by for the year

We are seeing relief to that number, but it's early to quantify how much. But it will be a net positive for the year versus what we've baked into the plan.

OPEN is an unresolved commitment on the clock; STATED is on the record without a checkable bar and is never counted or scored. Method: methodology.