JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM)

“We have implicitly added $1 billion for the second half of the year, and there are some nuances.”

“This piece, which to be fair, is quite small, it's probably like $150 million, is a part of the increase that we would not expect to be offset on the bottom line, all else equal.”

“essentially expecting lower amounts of finance, non-interest-bearing assets on the balance sheet in the second half of the year.”

“If you sort of do that math, it does suggest a higher exit run rate, which, in the central case, assuming the yield curve plays out as the forwards currently forecast and the deposit and other drivers are in line with our current expectations, that's what we would expect.”

“The view is that the 15% will be an outcome of that, and we still feel good about it.”

“On consumer, we talked about expecting low single-digit growth this year, that expectation is still in effect.”

“Finally, we now expect card net charge-off rate to be approximately 3.2%, reflecting better-than-expected consumer credit performance.”

“The new adjusted expense outlook is about $107.5 billion, with the increase primarily due to higher volume and revenue-related expenses driven by the activity levels and associated revenue outperformance.”

“In terms of the full year 2026 outlook, we now expect NII ex-Markets to be about $96.5 billion, and total NII to be approximately $105.5 billion as a function of markets NII increasing to about $9 billion.”

“On the question of overall sentiment on the pipeline, I would describe it as resilient, maybe surprisingly resilient, given everything that's going on.”

“The margin would be about what it is today, give or take, a couple of basis points up or down.”

“we talked about at Company Update, our consumer deposit growth expectations being low to mid-single digits. And I think that is still the belief”

“I still think the core view is for significantly less robust growth than last year.”

“we said we expected 6% or maybe a little bit more. and that hasn't really changed. That's still kind of our core expectation.”

“So we need to plan for 5.2% in 2028, a 70 basis point increase from the current 4.5% requirement, which, when combined with the RWA increase from the Basel III endgame NPR results in a total increase of about $20 billion of G-SIB capital based on our current balance sheet.”

“the Card net charge-off rate continues to be approximately 3.4%.”

“The adjusted expense outlook continues to be about $105 billion”

“we continue to expect NII ex Markets to be about $95 billion.”

“client engagement and pipelines remain healthy, but of course, developments in the Middle East could have an impact on deal execution and timing.”

“The elevated level of Advanced RWA is temporary and is expected to reduce to approximately $30 billion in the near term.”

“it's gonna take two years and cost a bit of money to meet the terms and standards.”

“Simply bringing that back to slightly more normal through cycle charge-off rates would still involve some increase in charge-offs.”

“I would say broadly, nothing that dramatic. As a function of the lower rate environment in particular, but you know, a modestly optimistic outlook.”

“I actually think we have a what I would describe as a moderately optimistic outlook for loan growth in terms of traditional C and I. and CC and CIB.”

“At this point, we're sort of expecting that inflection in balance per account to kick in the 2026, at which point you would start to see kind of a reassertion of the consumer deposit growth, which would get us to you know, modest deposit growth for CCB in 2026, but certainly lower than that 6% scenario that we talked about at Investor Day.”

“So we have a more modest for 2026 wholesale deposit growth.”

“I think we're expecting something like six or 7% car loan growth for 2026.”

“our expectations for consumer deposit growth in 2026 are lower than they had been in our scenario analysis. At investor day, and that remains the case.”

“Offsetting that is the expectation for continued loan growth in card, was slightly less than last year as the REVOLVE normalization tailwind is behind us as well as modest firm-wide deposit growth.”

“We continue to expect NII in its markets to be about $95 billion.”

“In terms of the outlook, we expect strong client engagement and deal activity in 2026, supported by constructive market dynamics which is reflected in our pipeline.”

“So as we look to '26, we're still pretty optimistic about the wholesale deposit franchise and the payments franchise know, products, offerings, customer engagement, growth opportunities, etcetera, but it's gonna be tough to beat.”

“Our pipeline remains robust and the outlook along with the market backdrop and client sentiment continues to be upbeat.”

“As that stuff normalizes through, we some of these numbers like return to slightly more normal PRNs, but it might actually take a couple of quarters for that to play out.”

“That all else equal is obviously a headwind as we remain asset sensitive and the annualization of this year in the first half next year.”

“And on credit, we now expect the 2025 card net charge-off rates to be approximately 3.3% on favorable delinquency trends driven by the continued resilience of the consumer.”

“We expect fourth quarter NII ex markets to be approximately $23.5 billion and fourth quarter total NII to be about $25 billion.”

“Medical, we spent $3 billion of so in medical. Going be up 10% next year.”

“So it is going to slow down a little bit given that the normalization of REVOLVE is close to complete now, but we still see very healthy acquisition dynamics there.”

“While you probably have not spent a lot of time refining your 2026 estimates yet, it is worth saying that when we look at the fourth quarter and adjust for seasonality, and expected labor inflation as well as adding some growth, the consensus of about $100 billion does look a little bit low.”

“And maybe think it actually might be up another 10% in 2027 for a whole bunch of different reasons”

“Our pipeline remains robust and the outlook along with the market is notably more upbeat.”

“we continue to expect the card net charge off rate to be approximately 3.6%.”

“we now expect it to be about $95.5 billion primarily driven by the impact of the weaker dollar, is largely bottom line neutral.”

“Portal NII guidance is now about $95.5 billion implying $3.5 billion of markets NII.”

“we now expect NII ex markets to be approximately $92 billion with the increase driven by changes in the forward curve and strong deposit growth in payments, security services, as well as balance growth in card.”

“So, when you put that together, all else equal, the drop in the weighted average IORB, which is about 22 basis points, should produce a notable headwind in our NII ex. Markets.”

“And on Credit, we expect the card net charge-off rate to be in line with our previous guidance of approximately 3.6%.”

“Our adjusted expense outlook continues to be about $95 billion.”

“We continue to expect NII ex. Markets to be approximately $90 billion.”

“Certainly, the back-loaded cuts, all else equal, from a run rate perspective introduce a little bit of a headwind on an exit rate going into next year, we'll just have to see how the balances play out through the next three quarters.”

“While client engagement and dialogue is quite elevated, both the conversion of the existing pipeline and origination of new activity will require a reduction in the current levels of uncertainty.”

“it means more capital return through buybacks, all else being equal in order to arrest the growth of the excess, and that is our current plan”

“So we're going to try to run things, with some important exceptions that I'll highlight in a second, on roughly flat headcount and have that lead to people generating internal efficiencies as they get creative with their teams and reconsider more efficient ways of doing things.”

“Finally, let me say a few words about the wildfires in Los Angeles, while we don't expect much of a financial impact from it, we have a presence in the area across all three lines of business”

“As we look ahead to 2025, we still expect NII normalization, although to a lesser extent than we previously thought.”

“On deposit margin, we expect modest compression due to lower rates.”

“We expect healthy card loan growth again this year, but below the 12% pace we saw in 2024 as tailwinds from revolve normalization are largely behind us.”

“what the impact of that might be on the growth of system-wide deposits, it's kind of consistent with the story that we're telling about our sort of the background growth in our NII outlook, plus or minus what happens with the policy rate and stabilizing and growing deposit balances through the second half of the year.”

“we might return to sequential growth in the back half of the year, again, based on all of our current assumptions, all else being equal.”

“When you put all that together, we expect the NII trough could be sometime in the middle of the year, followed by growth as we illustrated at the bottom of the bar.”

“So, you will stay around maybe for a few more years base case right now? Yes. Basic case, yes.”

“But from where we sit now, given the yield curve, assuming the yield curve materializes, obviously, we do see a pretty clear picture of sequential declines at NII ex-markets.”

“Final point was if you play that view through, it's a residual headwind for a system-wide deposit growth, which gets removed. And that's one of the reasons that we feel that we're probably in the trough of our deposit balances at the level.”

“We remain asset-sensitive to Fed cuts.”

“So we believe there's a big opportunity to grow the rest of it and be on track at the type of like average annual share growth of the order of 30 or 40 basis points that we've seen historically, that's how you kind of assemble a tailwind from normalized deposit margin and balance growth in consumer.”

“We think the CD mix has probably peaked. Now on the way down, it's not going to go back down to zero where it was at the beginning of the cycle.”

“The other thing is that we do expect fees and volume-related businesses to grow next year.”

“And in that context, the other relevant point is the CD mix, where with the rate cuts coming, we expect CD balances to price down with pretty high betas and probably the CD mix actually peaking around now.”

“In multifamily, while we are seeing encouraging signs in loan originations as long term rates fall, we expect overall growth to remain muted in the near-term as originations are offset by payoff activity.”

“We are seeing a slowdown in customer yield seeking activity including CD volumes and expect deposits to be relatively flat for the remainder of the year.”

“As we look ahead to the next few quarters, we expect results will be somewhat challenged as normalization continues.”

“On credit, we continue to expect the 2024 Card net charge-off rate to be approximately 3.4%.”

“Our outlook for adjusted expense is now about $91.5 billion.”

“We now expect 2024 NII ex-markets to be approximately $91.5 billion and total NII to be approximately $92.5 billion.”

“So it's going to be less than 87% next year, probably not a lot, we don't know and we don't know the environment.”

“So we see the current 2025 consensus for NII ex-markets to be currently at 87%, which is obviously lower than it was at the conference earlier in the quarter. So we're happy to see that move a little bit more in line to us. That still looks a little toppy, but it's definitely in the ballpark.”

“But the trough may be happening sometime in the middle of next year, at which point the combination of balances, card revolve growth, and other factors can return us to sequential growth.”

“like whatever you get for this year is still clearly a number that's higher than 17%.”

“So after all the uncertainty is sorted out, the question of the deployment of the Capital one way or another is a matter of when, not if.”

“the firm announced that the Board intends to increase the quarterly common stock dividend from $1.15 to $1.25 per share in the third quarter of 2024.”

“As I sit here today, our expectation for that number is actually slightly higher, but it is in the ballpark.”

“But big picture. I do think that migration out of non-interest-bearing into interest-bearing will continue to be a thing, and that is a contributor to the modest headwinds that we expect for NII right now.”

“we do continue to expect that migration to happen. So if you think about it in the wholesale space, you have a bunch of clients with some balances in non-interest-bearing accounts, and over time for a variety of reasons, we do see them moving those balances into interest-bearing.”

“there is still higher expense to come in a slightly flatter revenue environment as a result of in part, the normalization of NII.”

“one source of headwinds is normalization of the NII, primarily as a result of the expected higher deposit costs.”

“So when we think of our balance outlook, we see it as flat to slightly down maybe, with our sort of market share and growth ambitions offsetting those system-wide headwinds.”

“we do recognize that our current practice on capital return and buybacks does lead to an ever-expanding CET1 ratio. But obviously we're going to run the company over the cycle over time at a reasonable CET1 ratio with reasonable buffers relative to our requirements.”

“The preliminary SCB, which is up from the current requirement of 2.9%, results in a 12.3% standardized CET1 ratio requirement, which goes into effect in the fourth quarter of 2024.”

“Card net charge-off rate of approximately 3.4%.”

“So you have to assume there will be some upward pressure on that.”

“but we still feel that this second quarter still reflects a bunch of pull forward, and therefore we are reasonably cautious about the second half of the year.”

“For the avoidance of doubt, these changes have no meaningful impact on expected annual net income.”

“Yes, it's also true that we expect the expense run rate to decline later in the year as we continue making progress on integration.”

“But broadly, I think that our expectation for integration expense are probably coming in a bit lower than we originally assumed on the morning of the deal for a couple of reasons.”

“And yes, that still means that all else equal, we think the consensus for the allowance build for the back 3 quarters is still a little too low if you map it to that expected card loan growth.”

“Yes, we still expect 12% card loan growth for the full year.”

“We expect deposit balances to be sort of flat to modestly down.”

“And frankly, we expect to see that even in a world where -- even if the current yield curve environment were to change and meaningful cuts were to get reintroduced and we would actually start to see those, we would still expect to see ongoing migration and yield-seeking behavior.”

“We're continuing to buy back stock at $2 billion a year. I personally do not want to buy back a lot more than that at these current prices.”

“This is a smaller gap than we've previously observed, and we expect this approximate relationship to persist going forward, although the difference will continue to fluctuate as it has in the past.”

“Our managed rate is unchanged, and it should average about 3.5% above the effective tax rate.”

“Finally, you may have noticed that our effective tax rate has increased this quarter, and it will likely stay around 23% this year, absent discrete items, which can vary quite a bit.”

“And on credit, we continue to expect the 2024 Card net charge-off rate to be below 3.5%.”

“Our total NII guidance remains approximately $90 billion, which implies a decrease in our Markets NII guidance from around $2 billion to around $1 billion.”

“But of course, with ECM, there's always a pipeline dynamic, and conditions were particularly good this quarter. And so we caution a little bit there about pull-forward, which is even more acute, I think, on the DCM side, given that quite a high percentage of the total amount of debt that needed to be refinanced this year has gotten done in the first quarter.”

“So you may see us do things in the short run that will increase earnings, increase capital -- that are using up that capital.”

“So obviously, when and if that happens, it would free up a lot of capital, and I'm going to say on the order of $20 billion or something like that.”

“While we are encouraged by the level of capital markets activity we saw this quarter, we need to be mindful that some meaningful portion of that is likely pulling forward from later in the year.”

“One, as you obviously know, announced volume was lower this year, and so that will be a headwind in reported revenues in 2024 all else equal.”

“So if you start with ECM, that helps higher, and the recent rally in the equity markets helps... So I would expect to see rebound there.”

“So as a result, if you look at weighted average rate paid, for example, for the consumer deposit franchise, we would actually expect that number to be a little bit higher, just even in a world with six cuts.”

“At the same time, we do continue to expect internal migration, particularly out of checking and savings into CDs, and in wholesale, a little bit of ongoing migration out of non-interest-bearing into interest-bearing.”

“But for now, we plan to remain on a modest base of buybacks consistent with that kind of $2 billion net buyback, a quarter number that we've talked about and that you've seen us do in light of probably the need to continue building to have a bit of a buffer.”

“As we turn to 2024, it shouldn't be surprising that our outlook has us beginning to march down the path towards normalization of our returns.”

“On credit, we continue to expect the 2024 card net charge-off rate to be below 3.5%, consistent with Investor Day guidance.”

“Net-net, First Republic produces a modest increase in expenses, but with a significantly lower 2024 exit run rate as the result of business integration efforts.”

“Combining that with the full-year guidance of approximately $88 billion implies meaningful sequential quarterly declines throughout 2024, consistent with what we've been telling you for some time.”

“We expect strong loan growth in Card to continue, but not at the same pace as 2023.”

“A little bit of that is in there. Yes... The hope and expectation of a continued rebound in the investment banking wallet, and our share of that is part of that.”

“So I think probably the best way to do this is to look at our EAR numbers... it's going to be a little bit lower, I think something like $1.9 billion as opposed to $2.1 billion.”

“We are starting the year with a healthy pipeline and we are encouraged by the level of capital markets activity, but announced M&A remains a headwind, and the extent as well as the timing of capital markets normalization remains uncertain.”

“And probably more significantly, as I think you alluded to, we do have some accelerated pull-to-par on some of the commitments that we took on at a fair value discount as part of the acquisition. And so that's a short-term tailwind in the revenue that will come out of that over the next few quarters.”

“So we would expect that to normalize.”

“Two is, once the rule is final, we will seek to reprice in the places where we can.”

“So call it $90 billion run rate on an exit rate basis, and we're saying that we think something a bit more normal is closer to $80 billion.”

“I would expect it to be relatively muted.”

“As we look forward, we're still optimistic about that, but it will probably be a little bit more muted than it has been during this normalization period.”

“We've already said we expect the firm's RWA to increase by around 30% or $500 billion, which results in capital requirements increasing by about 25% or $50 billion.”

“So assuming the Basel III endgame and GSIB proposals are finalized in their current form, we would see a 45% increase in our capital requirements relative to that 2017 starting point.”

“We just know probabilistically that it will, like everything else these days, tend to push capital higher.”

“In terms of higher for longer, I think it just means that there will continue to be upward pressure on deposit pricing, both from internal migration and possibly from other effects.”

“And on Credit, we now expect the 2023 Card net charge-off rate to be approximately 2.5%, mostly driven by denominator effects due to recent balanced growth.”

“Our outlook for 2023 adjusted expense is now approximately $84 billion.”

“Consistent with what we've been saying throughout the year, while we don't know when it will normalize, we do not consider this level of NII to be sustainable.”

“We now expect 2023 NII and NII ex-Markets to be approximately $88.5 billion and $89 billion, respectively, with the increase driven by slower reprice than previously assumed.”

“We'll be able to build the necessary capital in order to achieve on time or early compliance, which is always what we strive to do.”

“We do think that we'll have to reprice in some pockets to some degree, maybe with tiering or whatever at some point in the future.”

“I mean basically, yes, as you have - if the next round is going to be the beta built from 30 to 40 to 50, whatever the product is, yes, that's the latter. And the 2.5 will go down over time as that actually happens if rates actually go up.”

“So we're not really expecting meaningful growth away from card.”

“But away from that, for a variety of different reasons at different products, whether it'd be mortgage or C&I, after revolver normalization, and especially if we see a little bit of a cooling off of the economy, I would expect loan demand to be relatively modest there.”

“Generally, we do still expect reasonably robust card loan growth.”

“Look, we would consider credit card normalized to be closer to 3.5%.”

“Erika, I'll say one thing. Of course we have a mix of businesses that earn from like 0% ROTCE to a 100%. We have some which are very capital-intensive, so we look at kind of all of them and I think 17% is a good number and a good target.”

“I wouldn't necessarily assume that the evolution from the current run-rate into that mid-70s number is that sensitive to the rate outlook in particular.”

“You asked about mix. I think that obviously, we're seeing the CD mix increase and we would continue to expect -- we would continue to -- we would expect that to continue to take place, probably even past the peak of the rate cycle into next year as we continue to capture money in motion.”

“And on credit, we continue to expect the 2023 card net charge-off rate to be approximately 2.6%.”

“Our expense outlook for 2023 remains approximately $84.5 billion.”

“And I should take the opportunity to remind you once again that significant sources of uncertainty remained and we do expect the NII run rate to be substantially below this quarter's run-rate at some point in the future, as competition for deposits plays out.”

“The new SCB also reflects the Board's intention to increase the dividend to $1.05 per share in the third quarter.”

“Systems integration is also proceeding at pace and we are targeting being substantially complete by mid-2024.”

“Obviously, lot of new moving parts there, although all else equal, given what we've done so far, that's still probably a reasonable number for the full year.”

“In terms of the second-half outlook, we have seen encouraging signs of activity in capital markets, and July should be a good indicator for the remainder of the year.”

“I think, number one, we believe, have said and continue to believe that this is fundamentally a 17% through the cycle ROTCE franchise.”

“But we think even in a fairly severe recession, we’ll deliver very good returns, whether that’s 17% or not is too much detail for now.”

“Well, we’ve told you -- I think we’ve told you that we’re kind of penciled in $12 billion for this year.”

“We do expect higher capital from Basel IV effectively.”

“And on credit, we continue to expect the 2023 card net charge-off rate to be approximately 2.6%.”

“Moving to expenses. Our outlook for 2023 continues to be about $81 billion.”

“Note that in line with my comments at the outset, recent deposit balance increases are not a meaningful contributor to the upward revision in the NII outlook, given that we expect a meaningful portion of the recent inflows to reverse later in the year.”

“We now expect 2023 NII and NII ex-markets to be approximately $81 billion.”

“In terms of the outlook, the dynamics remain the same. Our pipeline is relatively robust, but conversion is sensitive to market conditions and the economic outlook. We expect the second quarter and the rest of the year to remain challenging.”

“We expect these outflows to be driven by the same factors as last quarter as well as the expectation that we will not retain all of this quarter’s inflows.”

“It’s important to note that while the sequential period-end deposit increase is higher than we would have otherwise expected, our current full year NII outlook, which I will address at the end, still assumes modest deposit outflows from here.”

“Separately, it’s worth noting that markets NII may start to trend slightly positive towards the end of the year as a function of mix and rate effects.”

“Yes, we can. But a lot of factors could turn that. But yes, we can.”

“So as we look forward, we expect to continue to produce strong returns in the near-term and we remain confident in our ability to deliver on our through-the-cycle target of 17% ROTCE.”

“So, my comments about sequential increases were to address the sort of obvious conclusion... Once things adjust, we will return to normal sequential growth.”

“That's incorporating our sense of the current environment, the operating leverage that you talked about and the expectation of higher capital requirements with the 13.5% target in the first quarter of '24.”

“Just assume we're going to have modest growth in RWA.”

“We would expect to see a little bit of continued attrition, especially of the non-operating type balances.”

“And finally, while volume and revenue-related expense was ultimately a tailwind for 2022, we are expecting it to be close to flat in 2023, which will be completely market dependent as always.”

“Going through some of the other drivers, we expect increases from labor inflation, which, while it seems to be abating on a forward-looking basis, is effectively in the run-rate for 2023.”

“That said, as we continue executing our strategy of investing to acquire new customers as well as deepen relationships with existing ones and as we see the impact of loan growth, we would expect sequential NII growth to return, all else being equal.”

“We expect that this tailwind will be offset by lower deposit balances given modest attrition in both consumer and wholesale.”

“In addition, looking at balance sheet growth and mix, we expect solid overall card spend growth as well as further normalization of revolving balances per account and modest loan growth across the rest of the company.”

“The combination of the annualization of the hike in late December, the hikes expected early in the year and the cuts expected later in the year should be a nice tailwind.”

“Also note that it will be a difficult compare against last year’s first quarter.”

“However, revolving balances per account are still below pre-pandemic levels, which should be a tailwind in 2023.”

“I think you would have to probably expect some normalization there. It's – the numbers are really very strong in markets, but we will see and we will see what happens.”

“As we look towards 2023, maybe some of those themes will be a little bit less obvious, and that could be a little bit of a headwind.”

“I think a good number to use is something like $12 billion of buybacks for this year for 2023.”

“In terms of the outlook, the dynamics remain the same. Pipeline is relatively robust, but conversion is very sensitive to market conditions and sentiment about the economic outlook.”

“As we think about -- your capital build is going faster than expected and you think about the revenue power that shows through in this firm, plus or minus what may happen with CECL, do you think you can achieve 17% ROTCE next year? Yes. That’s obviously a good question. The answer is yes.”

“Given our results this quarter, we are well positioned to meet our CET1 targets of 12.5% in the fourth quarter and 13% in the first quarter of 2023.”

“Well, it has. I mean look at the volumes and mortgage have dropped and cars, the quota have dropped and stuff like that. And that’s already in our numbers, and we would expect that to continue that way.”

“In terms of the actual loan growth outlook, we have said for this year, obviously, only one quarter left, that we’d have high single digits.”

“I would put in your model lower IB revenues next quarter than this quarter based on what we see today.”

“But, I do expect future bond losses going forward. I just don’t think that’s real earnings.”

“So, as you look out to next year with the forward curve implying a much less biased evolution of Fed funds, you shouldn’t expect to see as many changes at least from rates.”

“And we expect NII ex Markets for the fourth quarter to also be about $19 billion, implying that we expect Markets NII to be around zero, which brings the full year to about $61.5 billion.”

“For the fourth quarter, we expect it to be approximately $19 billion, implying full year 2022 NII of approximately $66 billion.”

“No meaningful change in that outlook there, probably a little bit of a headwind as a function of rates, as you mentioned, and some of the RWA optimization in mortgages.”

“I think the way to look at it is we’re fairly neutral at this point, interest rates going up or down.”

“Put in the back of your mind that if unemployment goes to 5% or 6%, you’re probably talking about $5 billion or $6 billion over the course of a couple of quarters.”

“And while our existing pipeline is healthy, conversion will, of course, depend on market conditions.”

“Yes. I mean, we think the current reserve, the current allowance, we think, is conservatively appropriate for a range of scenarios.”

“$77 billion is the number that we see right now and the number that we believe.”

“We’re not going to go below any regulatory minimum. And if we have to, we’ll just drive down credit more to where we got to create.”

“In light of the SCB coming in even higher than expected, we have paused buybacks for the near term.”

“So, the good rule of thumb on constant rates is about 10 basis points of CET1 accretion a year.”

“But we would expect that to primarily come out of wholesale and primarily come out of the non-operating and sort of less valuable portions of our deposit base.”

“So on card revenue rate, we’ve said that we thought 10% was a reasonable number for the full year, and it’s running a little bit lower right now. And I think the current level -- but where is it, Michael, 9.6 or something is probably the right the right number for the full year at this point.”

“And we can see in our outlook a bunch of factors driving up second half expense, including deal, M&A closing and adding to the run rate as well as continued execution of our investment plans, resulting in increased headcount, probably at a faster pace as we kind of have ramped up our hiring capacity and so on.”

“In terms of underwriting, as you say, we do underwrite through the cycle. I think we feel comfortable with our risk appetite and our credit box. And I don’t think we expect any particular change there.”

“Yes. The only thing I would like to add is that certain loan growth is discretionary and portfolio-based, think of mortgages, and there’s a good chance we’re going to drive it down substantially.”

“Yes. So, we’ve talked, as you know, Steve, about sort of a mid -- high single digits loan growth expectation for this year. And that outlook is more or less still in place.”

“We still expect adjusted expense to be approximately $77 billion and the Card net charge-off rate to be less than 2% for 2022.”

“We now expect it to be in excess of $58 billion, reflecting Fed funds reaching 3.5% by year-end.”

“The new 4% SCB will raise our standardized CET1 requirement to 12% effective in the fourth quarter, and the 4% G-SIB effective in 1Q ‘23 further raises this requirement to 12.5%.”

“In terms of outlook, while our existing pipeline remains healthy, conversion of the deal backlog may be challenging if the current headwinds continue.”

“In the current environment, the rate of buybacks is clearly going to be less than it was in the 2021 period as a result of the interaction of all those effects.”

“NII is going to get much better.”

“I mean, I think fundamentally, we have had confidence in delivering our 17% ROTCE through the cycle.”

“the higher rate outlook is improving the revenue outlook, which will, of course, accrete to capital.”

“The AOCI drawdown will obviously come back over time.”

“Our core revolve thesis of getting back to the pre-pandemic levels of revolving balances by the end of the year is still in place to a good approximation.”

“we are adding -- we're planning to have more capital for the increase in G-SIFI down the road, which reduced stock buyback”

“No, don't expect that.”

“our base case remains modest growth in deposits for us as a company.”

“we would expect a significant portion of the RWA inflation to bleed out, obviously, to decay out.”

“all else equal, you'll see a headwind in there as the Fed hikes come through, which, in general, in the geography, we would tend to expect that to be offset in NIR.”

“we would actually expect the access part of in excess of $53 billion to be bigger than it was at Credit Suisse.”

“We still expect NII ex Markets to be in excess of $53 billion and adjusted expenses to be approximately $77 billion.”

“I wasn't meaning to put a time frame on it, but I would say five years.”

“The thousand bankers we’re adding in private banking, and Chase Wealth Management, we’re pretty sure we’ll get to breakeven but just we expect that takes a couple of years.”

“But every -- but the 400 branches that we’re building, those things will get to contribution profitability just like we expect.”

“Mike asked another very good question market shares. We expect to go up in retail deposit market share, investment market share, private banking market share, fixed income market share, equity market share, investment banking market share, global market share, payments market share and security services market share, commercial banking market share, and what did I miss? I’d be surprised if any of them go down.”

“in other words, we’re sort of saying that as we -- as the environment continues to normalize in a variety of ways...when all of that plays out and is finished playing out, we believe we should be back to 17%, all else equal.”

“However, for purposes of the first quarter in Investment Banking, the overall pipeline remains quite robust.”

“Eventually, they’re going to normalize.”

“Just assume as the loan book grows, we will add reserves pretty much proportionate to the growth in the loan book, all things being equal.”

“And then the pace of fintech investors, stuff like that, that won’t change at all.”

“in the assumptions that we’re using to build up that 17% rate, we do get back to something like a 55% overhead ratio.”

“as I said, we’re assuming a roughly normal credit environment at that point. So that would mean card charge-off rates back into the sort of low to mid-3s type of thing.”

“the way we see the world, we don’t expect the Basel III endgame in and of itself to increase the dollars of capital that we need to carry as a company.”

“we do expect the Basel III endgame in and of itself to increase the dollars of capital that we need to carry as a company.”

“And so it’s a whole mix. And just think about it as expenses you should expect to go up a little bit in 2023.”

“So, as a result, when you look at the sort of full year revenue rate for card of around 10%, we actually see that as a reasonable central case for next year with the sort of elevated marketing and customer acquisition amortization being offset, obviously, by expected growth in NII with the revolve narrative that we’ve laid out.”

“But at a high level, if you look at the numbers on the bottom right and what’s happening to the yield curve recently, you should find the $2.5 billion increase relatively intuitive.”

“Our central case is obviously that we will see some normalization from exceptionally strong performance, both in IB fees and in Markets. But I think we’re expecting that normalization to be a little bit less, like we’re near all the way down to the 2019 levels, partially because the banking pipeline is really very robust.”

“most importantly, we are adding another $3.5 billion of investments, which I would note includes the run rate impact of our acquisitions as well as some of the run rate effects that I just mentioned and reflects similar themes to the ones I discussed earlier.”

“And so, looking at adjusted expenses, we expect roughly $77 billion in 2022, an increase of about $6 billion year-on-year or 8%.”

“As we said at the outset of this section, we are in for a couple of years of sub-target returns.”

“So, while we do expect NII to increase year-on-year, depending on the path of rates, it may take a couple of years to return to the full NII generating capacity of the Company.”

“where we are expecting higher spend and new originations to drive revolving balances back to 2019 levels”

“Rates, with the market implied suggesting approximately three hikes later this year and the reason steepening of the yield curve, we would expect to see about $2.5 billion more NII from that effect.”

“So, when we take a step back, 17% remains our central case in the medium term. But over the next one to two years, we expect to earn modestly below that target.”

“our central case assumes no recalibration of the rules and that we will operate at a higher CET1, reflecting that we finished the year in the 4.5% GSIB bucket which equates to a 1% increase from GSIB in the central case.”

“And that, combined with relatively constant revolve rates, generates a strong recovery in revolving balances.”

“In our central case, we assume healthy sales growth from the back of continued economic recovery and strong account acquisitions.”

“In our central case, markets and banking normalized somewhat in 2022 relative to their respective record years in 2020 and 2021, and resume modest growth thereafter.”

“But the headwinds likely exceed the tailwinds as capital markets normalize off an elevated wallet, and we continue to make additional investments as well as the impact of inflationary pressures.”

“We do expect to see some tailwinds to NII, including the benefit of the latest implied and the expectation that card revolve rates will increase.”

“I mean, it should be a modest increase, modest additional tailwind, very modest.”

“it’s reasonable to assume that we might be -- we might do a little bit of duration buying if the rate curve develops as the forwards predict, but it shouldn’t be too dramatic.”

“I said previously that 12% was not off the table. And that remains true.”

“On balance, modest inflation that leads to higher rates is good for us. But under some scenarios, elevated inflationary pressures on expenses could more than offset the rates benefit, which could represent around 75 basis points of downside.”

“the rewards liability adjustment this quarter was of the order of something like 180 million, so we'll confirm that... that is not something that we see continuing. So that should come out of the run rate as we look forward.”

“that card marketing number will actually remain elevated. And if anything ticks up a little bit sequentially, just based on how the amortization there works. So you should expect to see that continue.”

“as a function of the amount of normalization that you see in 2022, you're going to see that come down in line all else equal.”

“realistically, expenses are going to be up next year.”

“We still expect NII to be approximately $52.5 billion and adjusted expenses to be approximately $71 billion.”

“In terms of outlook, keep in mind that it will be a difficult compare against the record fourth quarter last year.”

“we expect it to take some time for revolving credit card balances to return to pre-pandemic levels, given the amount of liquidity in the system”

“I think it's fair to assume that that would be a lower-end estimate for the 2022 number in light of what we believe will happen in terms of -- especially card revolve.”