Southern Company (SO)

“Our adjusted EPS estimate for the third quarter is $1.50 per share.”

“The success we have had in the first half of the year positions us exceptionally well to deliver on our near-term objectives while reinforcing and strengthening our confidence in our long-term outlook and our goal to be toward the top half of our long-term earnings trajectory.”

“With retail base rates held stable in both Georgia and Alabama until 2029, and significant customer benefits identified and committed to based on previously signed large load contracts, we are demonstrating that when growth is done right, everyone benefits.”

“we now project our full-year 2026 adjusted earnings to be near or at the top of our 2026 adjusted EPS guidance range of $4.50 to $4.60.”

“Generally, we want to shape equity draws to mirror capital outlays for construction.”

“Once projects are selected, they will move into a certification process that will take place throughout much of 2027. By the latter part of 2027, we will have clarity on what is certified.”

“The RFP process will play out through most of the rest of the summer into the fall. By year-end, we should have a good idea of what projects were selected through the RFP process.”

“if the company is selected to provide generation resources, we will start to feather in some spend. It's not currently contemplated in our projections for the 2028 time frame, but it will start to come into the forecast as we build out generation to come online in the 2030–2031 timeline.”

“As we said in our prepared remarks, we do expect to be at the top half of our long-term earnings trajectory.”

“we have reduced our projected remaining equity need by 2030 to $1.1 billion.”

“We continue to proactively address our identified equity needs to support our path toward 17% FFO to debt by 2029.”

“we expect this trend to continue accelerating as our 17 GW of contracted demand comes online.”

“those are likely to ramp beginning in 2028 and beyond.”

“And, Carly, that construction is scheduled to begin this year in 2026, so this is very immediate work that will be done.”

“We are in line, and we are focused on getting to the top of the range and delivering what we say we are going to deliver.”

“That gives us the opportunity for rate stability and freezes in Georgia through 2028 and in Alabama through 2029.”

“That is clearly our expectation.”

“The 400 megawatts of uprates we announced are in ongoing conversations—fairly late stage. We will be wrapping those up in the relatively near future, but those conversations are well in hand.”

“We are in the midst now of building 10 gigawatts that will support activities and demands through the end of the decade.”

“It is a good rule of thumb to continue to expect about 40% of incremental capital to be funded through equity.”

“We will go through the selection process through the rest of this year, and that will lead to a certification process that will take us pretty much through 2027.”

“Turning to Southern Power, we are moving forward to add 400 megawatts of additional capacity through natural gas turbine upgrades in multiple existing facilities in Alabama and Georgia, with commercial operation projected between 2029 and 2031.”

“For example, Georgia Power recently initiated the regulatory process for an all-source RFP to procure 2 to 6 gigawatts of new dispatchable generation resources, including from thermal generation, battery energy storage, and renewables, that are projected to be in service in 2032 to 2033.”

“We continue to see incredible momentum and tangible interest for power from large load customers and are in active late-stage discussions for another 12 gigawatts of contracted load through the mid-2030s, an increase of 2 gigawatts from what we shared last quarter.”

“Looking ahead, the interest from large load customers in our electric service territories, which includes data centers and large manufacturers, remains strong, with a prospective pipeline of well over 75 gigawatts.”

“We expect these loans to translate into meaningful long-term customer savings while reducing pressure on our capital market needs.”

“This incremental investment is projected to add approximately $700 million to our capital plan over the next several years.”

“Combined with the significant amount of equity previously sourced, and including the incremental $700 million of Southern Power projected capital expenditures I mentioned earlier, we project a remaining need for equity or equity equivalents of $1.8 billion through 2030 in support of our capital plan and long-term credit objectives.”

“We continue to proactively address equity needs that support our strong credit quality and path towards 17% FFO to debt by 2029.”

“To the extent that we work through that process and any of our proposals are selected, that would lead toward initiating spend probably in 2028, with deliveries in 2032–2033.”

“Second, we're in late-stage discussions to move forward with up rates of up to an additional 700 megawatts of capacity for Southern Power's legacy natural gas fleet to meet future projected market demands.”

“And we'd be pretty disappointed if we didn't achieve near the top end of that.”

“Keep in mind, we just closed in December on 10 gigawatts at Georgia Power. And then we kind of referred to 2 proceedings that just are beginning and then we expect to start between Alabama and Georgia that will probably take us through 2026 and likely see conclusion in 2027.”

“And by 2030, Southern Power has an opportunity to remarket approximately 1,000 megawatts of natural gas generation capacity.”

“This projected earnings growth trajectory provides for an average annual adjusted earnings growth profile of 8% from the 2026 guidance midpoint to 2030.”

“Longer term, we expect adjusted earnings to grow approximately 7% to 8% from our 2028 guidance range.”

“For 2028, we project adjusted earnings per share to grow approximately 9% from 2027, resulting in an initial guidance range of $5.25 and $5.45.”

“In addition to the 2026 range I provided, our initial guidance range for 2027 is adjusted earnings per share of $4.85 to $4.95, which represents approximately 8% growth from 2026.”

“Over the next 3 years, we expect to grow adjusted earnings per share 8% to 9% from 2026 through 2028.”

“Our adjusted earnings per share guidance range for 2026 is $4.50 to $4.60 per share.”

“This should serve to lower our dividend payout ratio into the low to mid-60% range in the latter portion of our forecast horizon.”

“While future dividend increases are subject to approval by our Board of Directors, we project continued modest increases in the dividend over the next several years.”

“Accordingly, we would expect to finance incremental capital investment above our current plan with approximately 40% equity or equity equivalents.”

“Beyond 2027, improved projected cash flows from large load customers and the broad growth we project across our businesses, along with the completion of several large capital projects in our base plan, credit metrics are projected to improve and ultimately position us to achieve credit metrics consistent with our continued objective of approximately 17% FFO to debt by 2029.”

“Through 2030, we expect to invest roughly $42 billion or over half of our total 5-year capital plan to reliably serve projected growth through the combination of new generation, enhancements to existing generation assets and expansions of our transmission and interstate pipeline systems.”

“Our capital investment plan supports projected long-term state-regulated average annual rate base growth of approximately 9%, a 2% increase from our forecast 1 year ago.”

“Considering the composition and strength of our large load pipeline, we project commercial sales, which currently comprise roughly 1/3 of our total retail sales to more than double, growing roughly 20% annually through the end of the decade.”

“Based on the timing of the associated load ramps for the projects in our risk-adjusted forecast, including the contracts we have signed, we project sales growth and the associated revenues to accelerate into 2027 with an even more pronounced expansion in 2028.”

“Georgia Power's total retail electric sales growth is projected to be approximately 13% over the same period.”

“On average, from 2026 through 2030, we project annual electricity sales growth of 10%, an increase of 2 percentage points from our prior long-term sales projections.”

“We project retail electric sales to grow at least 3% across our 3 electric operating companies in 2026.”

“Ultimately, based on our traditional disciplined planning methodologies, combined with the additional opportunities we see to serve projected growth as we get more line of sight on specific projects, it is reasonable to expect that our capital forecast could continue to increase.”

“Our adjusted EPS estimate for the fourth quarter is $0.54 per share, which, combined with our year-to-date performance, would represent full year adjusted earnings at the top of our 2025 annual guidance range of $4.30 per share.”

“we're scheduled to get a ruling from the commission, I think it's December 19, latter part of December. But all that should be wrapped up, and we'll see the results before year-end.”

“we expect to deliver on our financial objectives for 2025”

“I think the ability to bring on more is out there. I mean so the answer to your question is, yes, there's more capacity, more opportunity. And yes, we are in advanced discussions, in advanced considerations with other large load companies in terms of looking at more possibilities. So yes, there are more upside opportunities for the latter part of this decade.”

“We've got what we believe is a really good path to get towards 17% FFO to debt.”

“I think we've talked about that being about a $3 billion investment, 100% dollars. We're a 50% owner of that. And so that project is going as scheduled, and we expect great interest in contracting that capacity.”

“Across Alabama, Georgia and Mississippi, we now have contracts in place with large load customers, representing 7 gigawatts through 2029, which ultimately ramp to 8 gigawatts in the 2030s, and we are in advanced discussions for several more gigawatts of load.”

“solidifies a substantial portion of our total forecasted electric sales growth of 8% annually through 2029, including average annual growth at Georgia Power of 12% through the same period.”

“we have solidified over $7 billion of our $9 billion equity need through 2029. We are extremely well positioned to address the remaining amounts in a shareholder-friendly manner.”

“You are targeting or you're guiding to 8% sales growth. What year would you expect to sort of achieve that level of sales growth? That's in the latter part of the horizon. I think we've talked about 2029 is the target for that, and we grow into that over time.”

“construction continues on approximately 2.5 gigawatts of new generation in both Georgia and Alabama, which includes 3 natural gas combustion turbines and 7 battery storage facilities, all of which are projected to go online over the next 2 years.”

“the total pipeline remains more than 50 gigawatts of potential incremental load by mid-2030s.”

“we highlighted a cumulative equity need of $9 billion through 2029 to fund our $76 billion capital investment plan in a credit supportive manner.”

“We plan to continue utilizing equity or equity equivalents in support of our path towards 17% FFO to debt within our planning horizon.”

“The upside to the extent that the Georgia Public Service Commission approves all of our request, we had talked about that being about another $4 billion of incremental capital. And that's likely to be financed kind of in that neighborhood of about 40% equity going forward.”

“we expect to provide additional clarity on our long-term earnings trajectory, which, as we've highlighted before, could translate into increasing the base from where our long-term EPS growth starts, which could be potentially as early as 2027.”

“we remain on track to meet our financial objectives for 2025.”

“Yes. On that number, I think we'll expect to hear from the commission later this year, I think, before end of the year on that filing.”

“Well, we expect to get to the approximately the 17% near the back end of the planning horizon.”

“leaving less than $4 billion of the incremental need remaining to be addressed through 2029.”

“This level of equity content supports our credit quality and our progress toward our credit metric target of approximately 17% FFO to debt in the latter part of our forecast horizon.”

“The increase in our base capital plan of $13 billion is projected to be funded with approximately 40% of additional equity or equity equivalents, which represents an incremental $5 billion through 2029.”

“In total, our 5-year base capital plan has increased $13 billion from $63 billion to $76 billion with potential upside of approximately $5 billion still pending tied to the generation procurement certifications in Georgia and potential FERC-regulated gas pipeline expansions at Southern Company Gas.”

“Separately, Southern Power, our competitive power business has commenced repowering at 3 additional wind facilities in our existing portfolio, all of which have begun construction and are projected to be in service by the first half of 2027.”

“The large load pipeline across Alabama, Georgia and Mississippi, which includes data centers and large manufacturers remains well above 50 gigawatts of potential incremental load by the mid-2030s with project commitments totaling 10 gigawatts and ongoing advanced discussions for even more interest from large low customers in all of our electric service territories continue to be strong and growing”

“It could happen as early as 2027, but there's a lot of variables at play and we like what we're seeing at the moment. But we really don't see that happening before 2027.”

“the potential to reassess the base for our 5% to 7% long-term EPS growth rate as early as 2027.”

“should the Georgia PSC confirm the need for and ultimately certify the entire 10 gigawatts of new generation, there could be up to an additional $4 billion of new state regulated generation capital through 2029.”

“There was a delay in a steel manufacturer that was expected to come on in the first quarter that is baked into our numbers for the full year that's expected now in the next several months.”

“Considering the time line of these ongoing Georgia regulatory processes, we expect to be positioned to provide additional color on potential updates to our capital expenditure outlook and associated financing plan on our second quarter earnings call.”

“Successful bidders are expected to be notified in the coming months for a substantial portion of these RFPs, including 8.5 gigawatts of all source or technology-agnostic energy resources.”

“Overall, we do not expect a material impact to our forecast.”

“For our base capital plan, we currently estimate a range of 1% to 3% of potential cost increases with the top of the range representing the higher end of tariffs that existed for only a few days last month.”

“Our disciplined approach in sourcing equity, reinforces our commitment to maintaining strong investment-grade credit ratings and our journey to 17% FFO to debt, while also focused on delivering value to shareholders, and we are well positioned to continue to finance any incremental growth opportunities above our base plan in a credit supportive and shareholder-focused fashion.”

“We have a clear path in place to fully address the $4 billion five-year equity needs in our base plan.”

“It's to the extent that this incremental capital opportunity that we pointed to emerges. And to the extent that this data center in particular momentum continues and all else being equal, yes, we believe that in the back half of our plan, we could be positioned at or near the top of our existing range.”

“So -- everything in kind of a measured way in financing all of our capital, with the right mix to kind of get there the biggest, as we've highlighted before, the biggest driver of improvement in the short term is really debt associated with certain regulatory assets rolling off.”

“As we look ahead, our large load pipeline across our electric subsidiaries, which includes data centers and large manufacturers continues to grow, totaling more than 50 gigawatts of potential incremental load by the mid-2030s.”

“But on transferability, we just aren't that relying on it. We certainly take advantage of it where we can... if for some reason, that was not available to us based on our current base plan, I mean, the impact to FFO to debt, let's say, is a basis point or two -- or I'm sorry, 10 to 20 basis points or so.”

“I think once we are kind of in the low 60% range somewhere, which would kind of be the back end of our plan if we stay at this pace. That's the time to step back and reevaluate to those capital opportunities and equity needs persist out into the future? If so, it might remain modest. If not, the Board might have an opportunity to do something different.”

“If that is what we see and where we are and if kind of like going back to Julian's question about having line of sight if that appears to be a sustainable trajectory, then that provides us the opportunity to potentially rebase the starting point for 5% to 7% growth.”

“All else being equal, this potential incremental capital and continued economic development momentum are key to supporting our potential reevaluation of the base for our long-term EPS growth as early as 2027.”

“it's unlikely they'll begin to get recovered in 2025.”

“I will say what you'll see in 2025 is a little bit of, I don't know, flattish kind of trend in the FFO to debt and it's -- and again, from that adjusted number that you mentioned, David, that's the right place to start.”

“The provisions are frankly going to help us weed out the more speculative projects and so the result of that optically for those that are watching, you may see the size of the pipeline shrink a little bit over the next 3 months to 6 months.”

“We expect this momentum to continue into 2025 with retail electricity sales on a consolidated basis projected to grow approximately 2% to 3% compared to 2024 weather normal sales.”

“Substantially, all of Southern Power's current assets are under long-term contracts, and that's true through the end of this decade.”

“we're solidly within our range and potentially with those incremental updates sustainably near the top.”

“I'd characterize it, particularly with our base forecast kind of the middle to late part of our 5-year horizon is certainly reasonable and achievable.”

“At the same time, interest rates, which are now expected to be higher for even longer, continue to be a partially offsetting factor as our parent company debt gets refinanced at meaningfully higher rates than the securities outstanding today.”

“Our projected long-term adjusted EPS growth rate guidance is unchanged at 5% to 7% from our 2024 guidance.”

“we project continued modest increases in the dividend over our forecast horizon. This should serve to lower our dividend payout ratio into the low to mid-60% range as we balance our equity needs with this very important component of our value proposition.”

“Accordingly, we would expect to fund incremental capital investments above our current plan with approximately 30% to 40% equity or equity equivalents.”

“Our base plan projects average annual equity needs of approximately $800 million a year to support our credit quality and our progress toward our credit metric target of approximately 17% FFO to debt by the latter part of our forecast horizon.”

“Combined, we estimate that reasonable outcomes for these opportunities represent a potential range of incremental regulated capital investments totaling $10 billion to $15 billion for 2025 to 2029.”

“Our capital investment plan supports projected long-term state-regulated average annual rate base growth of approximately 7%, a 1% increase from our forecast 1 year ago.”

“Our base capital investment forecast over the next 5 years is $63 billion, 95% of which is at our state-regulated utilities.”

“Our Commercial segment, which includes data centers and currently represents approximately 1/3 of total retail electricity sales is projected to grow an average of 18% from 2025 to 2029.”

“Georgia Power's total retail electric sales growth is projected to be approximately 12% over the same period.”

“Longer term, we project average annual sales growth of approximately 8% from 2025 through 2029, an increase of 2% from our prior long-term sales growth expectations.”

“Southern Power has 500 megawatts of solar currently under construction with projected in-service dates in 2025 and 2026.”

“The economic development pipeline from large electric load customers, including data centers and large manufacturers, represents over 50,000 megawatts of potential incremental load by the mid-2030s.”

“Those things on their own that are known are roughly $3 billion of incremental capital relative to our $48 billion plan. It won't surprise me, given what we're seeing, that there are several billion dollars on top of that reflected in our plan in February.”

“We shared earlier this year that our long-term sales growth or at least the back half of the plan was close to 6%. With everything we're seeing, when we update our plan in February for you all, I won't be surprised if that's a higher number.”

“As we sit here today, I don't think five to seven as a rate of growth changes.”

“I would not expect anything to change in the near term everything we're describing.”

“Our estimate is subject to change over the next several months as estimates are replaced with bills from our mutual assistance partners as we complete the final cleanup of damaged equipment and as we work to ensure the impacted areas are restored to meet our standards for long-term reliability. That is not to suggest that our estimate is likely to materially change, but rather to acknowledge that it takes time to fully capture the ultimate cost of such an extensive endeavor.”

“Our adjusted EPS estimate for the fourth quarter is $0.49 per share, which combined with our year-to-date performance, would represent full year adjusted earnings of $4.05 per share.”

“But just think about it essentially as a project that culminates sometime at the very back end of our forecast or late this decade.”

“The upcoming quarterly large load economic development report to be filed with the Georgia Public Service Commission, is expected to reflect that Georgia Power's potential load additions and its economic development pipeline have grown to over 36 gigawatts, by the mid-2030s with 8 gigawatts committed.”

“We believe we are well-positioned to achieve our financial objectives for 2024.”

“The base for the 5% to 7% is the current guidance in 2024, $3.95 to $4.05.”

“We continue to expect that our disciplined approach to pricing this new load should result in revenues that not only cover the incremental cost to serve these new customers, but also provides economic benefits to existing customers.”

“It will be a significant acceleration that begins to happen in the '26, '27, '28 time frame and beyond, as these data centers are completed and they too will have their own ramp-ups to the point where overall commercial sales growth implicit in that 6% will be in the double-digits.”

“The underlying Georgia Power projected sales growth is approximately 9% over the same period.”

“As a reminder, during our year-end earnings call in February, we updated our forecast to reflect projected retail electric sales growth that is expected to accelerate in the latter part of this decade with a projected growth rate of approximately 6% from 2025 to 2028.”

“I think we are where we were. You heard Chris and I allude to maybe being disappointed if we're not in the top half of the range. So maybe there's some incremental benefit for 2024.”

“We believe -- and the DOE in the details as we work through this process with the DOE loan office, there could be big round numbers, eligible capital in the range of $15 billion to $20 billion over the next, I don't know, 7 to 8 years or so that could qualify for this.”

“And again, kind of going back to Steve's question, yes, even doing that, this incremental CapEx will have an accretive effect.”

“And that next regular filing is scheduled for next January '25.”

“We got Mississippi, we'll launch a process and -- or they launched the process in April rather they're going through that now and Alabama will have one next spring 2025.”

“We are a big company. We are issuing equity. But even with all of that, these incremental investments should have an accretive effect.”

“Now for the vast majority of what's showing up here, whether it's data centers, some of these other large load industrial customers, it may skew slightly below that. So really it's somewhere in the range of $20 million to $40 million for 1% change in sales.”

“Yes, absolutely, Nick. That profile we described in the fourth quarter that kind of ramps from that 14% last year up to 17% in the back half of the plan, it's absolutely still the profile to watch as this incremental capital opportunity emerges.”

“This approval affirms the need to quickly procure and deploy several thousand megawatts of resources to serve customers rapidly growing project electricity demands by the winter of 2026 and 2027.”

“The underlying Georgia Power projected sales growth rate is approximately 9% over the same period.”

“During our year-end earnings call in February, we updated our forecast to reflect projected retail electric sales growth that is accelerating to a projected growth rate of approximately 6% from 2025 to 2028.”

“So all told you're somewhere above $500 million, a little south of $1 billion, probably and what we'll do, we don't want to get too far ahead of the regulatory processes.”

“So, I think for the foreseeable future, the trajectory we've been on is a reasonable expectation for the trajectory we'll remain on.”

“we've laid out, it's roughly $0.03 for every month”

“2024, with Vogtle in service on the timeline, we believe those metrics will improve by more than 100 basis points in 2024.”

“These plans typically provide approximately $350 million of new equity annually.”

“As we near completion of Vogtle Unit 4, the reduction in major project construction risk and the improvement in our FFO should strengthen and meaningfully improve our credit profile to help ensure we preserve what we believe will be a positively differentiated profile.”

“And net-net, we're comfortably in that 5% to 7% growth range.”

“No, nothing's changed in terms of what I believe the financial profile supports which, again, my objectives, I've said this before, I think our parent company being a BBB+, kind of the A category for all the utilities, I think the profile we see ahead of us fully supports that.”

“I think if you do that from this current range, it captures every reasonable estimate that's out there for 2025 and 2026.”

“It's fairly ratable, Paul. It's obviously not perfectly linear by any means. But that -- the significant load really begins to come in, in, say, late 2025 and into 2026, which is why a lot of the resource proposals you see at Georgia Power are to really serve the 2026-2027 winter peak to make sure they're in place for that, and then it continues to grow from there.”

“we do expect to see rate decreases for our customers with these additional sales and the customer growth that we'll experience.”

“in my five-year forecast, we get kind of in that mid-16 towards 17 range.”

“we do believe it's reasonable to expect a historical trend of capital increases to continue going forward.”

“In terms of sensitivities, look, if you think about kind of a 50 basis point sensitivity around interest rates as we move forward, think with every incremental year, it's basically another an incremental penny of potential EPS plus or minus for that 50 basis points of interest rate sensitivity.”

“We will kind of give you that '24 guidance in February of next year.”

“We can generate between $350 million and $400 million a year just through those.”

“Our adjusted estimate for the fourth quarter is $0.59 per share, which implies an estimated full year result of $3.60 on an adjusted basis.”

“While weather conditions continue to present risk to our fourth quarter results, we project to achieve our full year adjusted earnings near the middle of our guidance range of $3.55 to $3.65 per share.”

“Commercial operation of the facilities is expected in 2024 and 2025, respectively.”

“We absolutely across all of our electric service territories expect to own renewables over the forecast horizon.”

“Now that's largely a function of the ROEs we've been earning at Georgia Power during construction of Vogtle 3 and 4. As that rolls off, that payout ratio will begin to come down, but we just need to get it somewhere comfortably into something that probably starts with a six in order to start evaluating a higher growth rate.”

“Yes. I would call it flat, Julian. So, it's flat over the long term. Our credit quality is a buffer against adversity that we have no desire to consume nor do we have -- or are we positioned where we've got to kind of over equitize incremental growth. It is a flat long-term objective.”

“I think as we lay out the plan and what the needs are, probably in the '26 time frame, I think, we'll see some of this play out could be as late as '25.”

“I think where we sit today, Carly, just kind of on an unadjusted basis, if you will, so not trying to factor in equity credit or content for any particular securities. We're a little south just of 30% overall. I think as the business grows, we don't really intend to grow that percentage.”

“As you look at this need that is there, that there is the likelihood that we would need some traditional units a little longer. Meaning, I think as we look at units that may have been scheduled to retire in '28, we may look to take them into the 30s.”

“We have been and will remain keenly focused on cost management, along with our constant focus on safety, reliability and customer satisfaction in the second half of this year.”

“Importantly, the project capital cost forecast is unchanged since last quarter.”

“And what this does is provide an uplift to our credit metrics such that we're more in the 17, 17-plus range for FFO to debt.”

“I think you may have also seen Alabama Power guidance renewable generation certification modified some 2,400 megawatts over a six-year period.”

“The first IRP will begin later this year, targeting some 1,300 megawatts of renewable resources with operation dates between 2026 and 2027.”

“we continue to project Unit 4 will be placed in service between late fourth quarter 2023 and end of the first quarter 2024.”

“As we've said before, consistent with what Chris just said, this will come together from a plan and capital deployment perspective in the latter part of our forecast horizon. So it was not a 2023 thing in terms of capital deployment might but probably not a meaningful 2024 -- but beyond that is where the real opportunity exists.”

“As you may know, we reached a stipulation with the staff, and we're looking at about a 12% price increase on retail rates over 3-year period to recover that under-recovered fuel balance, and that would take effect in June.”

“No. And so David, we're not announcing any schedule or cost estimate increases. 100% power sometime in May. I mean, we're working through the process. We're doing all the testing and we're ramping up. I would say, look for some time in May to get to 100% power.”

“And what I've continued to articulate as an objective to have all of our regulated utilities in the A category and our parent company at BBB+. And I think we can achieve that without having to do anything but execute.”

“Yes, Julien, it's Dan. So look, with -- once Unit 3 and 4 is in service, reflected in rates from a cash flow perspective, and we've talked about this before, it's about a $700 million improvement in our operating cash flow and thus improvement in FFO from an FFO to debt perspective, what that means is given the rest of our business, combined with that improvement, we should be comfortably in a let's just call it, 7-ish zone from an FFO to debt.”

“That was $0.33 just in the fourth quarter. And so that's a pretty significant year-over-year reconciling item that will necessarily be there this year, but we'll still be able to support that $3.60 as a midpoint.”

“Only 6 systems remain for turnover to testing for Unit 4, and we continue to project an in-service date between late fourth quarter of 2023 and end of the first quarter 2024.”

“We continue to project placing Unit 3 in service in May or June of 2023.”

“Yes. No, you're right. I mean it's a standard outage. I mean, there's some testing equipment that has to be removed and some things that we have learned. And so we'll fine-tune some things, maybe some remediation that will occur probably about a 10-day maintenance outage.”

“And I mean, if you recall, you may recall, Unit 3 took us about 94 days. And so we're now 80% complete. And if we stay on schedule, sometime in early May we will conclude hot functional testing and then look toward critical path items of ITAAC's and testing and looking toward fuel load sometime in July.”

“It could be as high as 18 in years, could be in the high 16s, but comfortably above certainly current rating thresholds.”

“So we will continue to find ways to put downward pressure on our pricing, find ways to look at the interest rate and inflation implications, but look to find ways to make sure, from O&M perspective, that is either flat or declining over our forecast period.”

“We expect yes, 6 months. It's the time frame we expect today.”

“It is scheduled to come as we enter fuel load on Unit 4. Right now, we're looking to -- for unit -- for fuel load to occur in the July time frame.”

“We expect additional automotive supplier announcements in the coming months.”

“Those initiatives had us well positioned with additional spending flexibility entering 2023, such that we expect the significant weather impact we experienced in January and February should be manageable over the remainder of the year, assuming a return to more normal weather throughout the balance of the year.”

“it's about $0.04 or so that it contributes in 2023 relative to 2022. So that's essentially the assumption of a little more than half the year in service and then there's -- that's offset slightly by the fact that there's some of the rate base that won't actually earn its full return until Unit 4 is also in service.”

“We generally expect about 150 basis points premium for us to go down the bilateral contract out via Southern Power as compared to our franchise utilities.”

“As we complete Plant Vogtle Units 3 and 4, we believe the expected reduction in construction risk and the projected improvement in FFO to debt metrics further position us to support our credit quality objectives.”

“Georgia Power's share of the total project capital cost forecast reflects a projected increase of $201 million to fund the extension of Unit 3 and Unit 4 projected in-service dates to the end of the second quarter 2023 and to the end of the first quarter 2024, respectively, plus modest increases in the projected cost of resources to complete the remaining work and testing on Unit 4.”

“Electrical production and terminations through year-end were sustained at levels supportive of our year-end 2023 in-service objective.”

“We fully expect this trend to continue.”

“Based on our current projections, we would still not project any equity.”

“This plan, which is consistent with our updated capital investment plan and the potential capital investment opportunities that we have highlighted continues to assume no equity need over our five-year planning horizon.”

“We've allocated up to $3.5 billion over the five-year plan with approximately $500 million in 2023 and $750 million annually for the remainder of the forecast period.”

“We continue to see our long-term adjusted EPS growth rate in the 5% to 7% range, consistent with our updated 2024 adjusted EPS guidance range.”

“As we get to 2024, given the improvement in our profile and given a durable growth rate, we think the Board will certainly have the opportunity to reevaluate the pace of growth and perhaps better align the growth in the dividend with growth in earnings.”

“Paul, I mean, you've followed us forever, it seems like. And we have had this process in place since 1995. And every three years, we go through this. And typically, we reach an agreement just before the holidays. I would expect that to occur again.”

“On a going-forward basis, once Vogtle 3 and 4 go in service, the equivalent energy price coming out of that plant is going to be effectively about $1 per million BTU.”

“This year, we've hedged 34% of our fuel prices, gas prices at about $3 and 22%, next year, 32% at $4.73.”

“And what we are also likely to do in February is we will narrow that $4 to $4.30 based on what we see at the time.”

“We think we've learned a lot, and we don't expect to repeat some of the issues that we saw in Unit 3 on Unit 4.”

“So long as we sustain our recent performance on the site, through, say, November, then we're on track on that issue.”

“To support our projected December 2023 in-service date, recent electrical production levels must be sustained for several more weeks.”

“We continue to project Unit 3 will be placed in service by the end of the first quarter of 2023.”

“Our adjusted earnings estimate for the fourth quarter is $0.23 per share.”

“With adjusted earnings per share through September of $3.35, we expect to achieve adjusted full year earnings near the top end of our guidance range of $3.50 to $3.60 per share.”

“Given our financial performance through the third quarter, we expect full year adjusted earnings per share near the top of our earnings guidance range.”

“Our capital plan is designed to support our growth rate of 5% to 7%.”

“Yes. But I think we're still within the range. The biggest change, I guess, Dan, that we see of interest rates, particularly cost of -- interest costs at the parent. But we'll certainly update that at our year-end earnings call.”

“We still have to improve particularly our performance in electrical, particularly in the terminations area. We believe we have reason to expect that performance to actually happen.”

“We are expecting an improvement in productivity on 4.”

“I mean, I'd be disappointed if we weren't improved in the range or whatever.”

“Timely Unit 3 fuel load and start-up, along with a sustained improvement in Unit 4 electrical production over the next several months is necessary to support our December 2023 in-service objective.”

“The economies within our Southeast service territories remain strong, and we believe we are well positioned to achieve our financial objectives for 2022.”

“The approved plan includes the addition of 2,300 megawatts of new renewable resources as part of Georgia Power's long-term plan to double its renewable generation by adding an additional 6,000 megawatts by 2035.”

“The plan also approves the addition of over 750 megawatts of battery energy storage projects, the retirement of over 1,500 megawatts of coal by 2028, and the continuation of existing grid investment in ash pond closure programs.”

“Yes, I'm going to let Dan hit kind of the specifics of that, but let me just say too, we still are committed to bringing the Vogtle Units in at or cheaper than what was originally discussed when we received the order on those units. So I think we're still in at less than 10%, which is a big deal.”

“With respect to the inflation and pay, we frankly went over that here getting ready for this call. We believe we're still top decile pay for the Southeast, and we feel like most of that risk is behind us.”

“Unit 4 remains on-track with our expectations. We are consistent with our expected timeframes and budgets, all good in that regard.”

“The economies within our Southeast service territories are among the best in the United States and we believe we are well-positioned to achieve our financial objectives for 2022.”

“Yes, yes, Nick, there's more work to be done. You should not expect us to get 103G and load fuel immediately. There is more work to be done. So there will be some space in between”

“We've got coal plant retirements coming up that will help keep O&M down and customer bills down.”

“Yes, Angie, you know, having followed us for many years, that we're not going to get in front of anything to do with the regulator. So we'll make our filing and when we make our filing right at the end of June, we'll certainly reveal all of the issues, I think, in the rate case.”

“So consistent with our estimates we need to increase. We have plans to move people over to effectuate that increase.”

“This level of customer growth is driven by a strong labor market recovery and our Southeast service territories are expected to reach pre-pandemic levels of employment later this year.”

“However, electrical production will need to increase to support our projected in-service dates.”

“Of these remaining ITAAC, the last 30 to 40 are expected to be completed just prior to submitting the all ITAAC complete letter to the NRC in support of the 103G letter.”

“I don't see the need to issue any equity during this time frame.”

“And some of that may come from new generation, or things that may start to occur in the kind of late 20s that may start showing up maybe 2025, maybe 2026 time frame.”

“Combined with the expected reduction in construction risk over the next 12 to 18 months, we believe we are well positioned to support our credit quality objectives.”

“We continue to see long-term adjusted EPS growth in the range of 5% to 7%, consistent with adjusted earnings in a range of $4 to $4.30 per share in 2024.”

“We are reaffirming our 5% to 7% long-term growth rate expectation, consistent with adjusted earnings per share in a range of $4 to $4.30 in 2024.”

“This forecast represents a $2 billion increase in state-regulated utility investment for the common years 2022 through 2025 from our forecast a year ago.”

“Included in our guidance is a more normalized assumption for retail electric sales growth of 0% to 1%, although a continuation of recent trends could deliver upside to that assumption.”

“The $3.55 midpoint represents a growth rate of approximately 7.5% from the midpoint of our original 2021 guidance range.”

“Our Southeast territories are on track to reach pre-pandemic levels of employment later this year.”

“This plan, which is consistent with our updated capital investment plans and the potential capital investment opportunities we’ve highlighted, continues to assume no equity need over our five-year plan horizon.”

“We fully expect this trend to continue, including in relation to Georgia Power’s IRP.”

“95% contracted through 2026, 92% through 2031.”

“Keep in mind that the plan includes retiring coal units in the ‘27, ‘28 time frame and then further again in 2035.”

“While we expect near-term opportunities to meet our criteria to be modest, we do believe opportunities will accelerate in future years.”

“I think what you’ll see us logically do is push those dollars out a little further in time and have opportunities later.”

“So, to your point, Angie, there’s certainly upside even in 2022 if we see these trends continue.”

“This level of customer growth has exceeded our forecast year-to-date and puts us on track to surpass last year's customer growth levels, which were also above historical norms.”

“with our September assumption for in-service of third quarter. of 2022, then work could continue through April with a 103G receipt fuel load in May, and then in-servicing system.”

“most likely the capex opportunity associated with the transition of the fleet will occur in the back part of that capex forecast.”

“Essentially, what we're addressing is only the impact of the recent Vogtle cost increases. So to the extent that that has an impact on our credit profile, we're committed to mitigating that.”

“relative to what we're earning today, that's going to add about a third of a sense of EPS for every month, for October, November, and December relative to what you would have forecasted under current conditions it's about a third of a penny per month.”

“The transition of our generating fleet and the important regulatory proceedings that will play out over the next 9 months, will significantly inform our capital investment opportunities.”

“we believe SEEM is good for our customers, and we're excited to be a part of this new platform, which is expected to launch in mid 2022.”

“If we get the 103 g letter early let's say January, then I'm going to guess, and this is just a guess on my part, so don't hold me to it. But I'm going to guess there maybe six weeks of work left from receipt of the letter to the actual loading of the fuel.”

“It is likely that further transparency on our long-term capital plan will unfold through out 2022 and we will update our forecasts as appropriately.”