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“As a result, we expect full-year EPS growth to now be in the low end of mid-teens.”

“Nonoperating expense for the full year is expected to be about $165 million. Our tax rate for the full year is expected to be between 18% and 18.25%.”

“We expect full-year operating expense growth in the low end of low teens.”

“Pulling it all together for the full year, we expect full-year net revenue growth to now be in the low end of low teens.”

“As a result, we expect fourth quarter EPS growth to be in the low end of mid-teens.”

“Nonoperating expense is expected to be about $80 million and our tax rate in the fourth quarter is expected to be around 19%.”

“We expect Q4 operating expense growth in the low double digits, which includes some Q3 expenses shifting to Q4.”

“On incentives, we expect to have renewed about 20% of our payments volume by the end of the fiscal year, and when we combine that with some new business we have won, this puts Q4 incentive growth slightly above Q3 on a nominal basis.”

“We expect Q4 net revenue growth in the high end of low double digits, similar to Q3 on an adjusted basis.”

“We expect a strong Q4, feel great about it as a launching point, and think we are well-positioned for FY 27.”

“June and July were unusually high, and I would anticipate it settles back to a more typical relationship relative to travel.”

“We've had strong revenue growth every quarter this year, and we expect Q4 to be strong as well.”

“I'll just add that the flywheel is working. Over the past several years we've grown and diversified our business while maintaining industry-leading operating margins. Looking forward, we expect to continue to deliver strong margins into the future as well.”

“Marketing services had a great year with FIFA enthusiasm, but the other three portfolios—issuing solutions, acceptance solutions, and risk and security—are collectively growing north of 20%. This indicates the breadth of the strength and reflects strong execution against our strategy. Directionally, the opportunity ahead is large and we will continue to execute. We expect these businesses to continue to be strong.”

“So while there is good enthusiasm around FIFA, and that was great to see, the overall underlying health of travel and e-commerce continues to be healthy, and that is something that we anticipate will continue into Q4.”

“Advisory and other continues to grow the fastest of the VAST portfolios and we expect it to continue to do so well into the future, driven by a focus to better serve our clients.”

“While we have a handful of client wins that have helped us since Q4 of fiscal 25, the bulk of the strength in our commercial payments volumes has been from our underlying business in both domestic and cross-border portfolios, which we expect to continue well into the future.”

“And in the next several years, we expect over 30 million more credentials from wins alone in Europe.”

“For non-GAAP nominal expectations, our acquisitions add approximately 1 point to net revenue growth, approximately 1.5 points to operating expense growth and approximately 0.5 point to EPS growth.”

“We have no change to the range for our tax rate between 18% and 18.5%, although we do believe it will be closer to the low end of that range.”

“We expect Q3 operating expense growth in the low teens, a slight step-up from Q2, primarily due to FIFA-related marketing.”

“Consistent with the directional comments provided at the start of the year, this low double-digit growth should be the lowest growth quarter of the year.”

“You may recall that Q3, 2025 represented the low point for incentive growth last year. And as we will be lapping that, we still expect a step-up in the incentive growth rate from Q2 to Q3.”

“And so, therefore, as we look at sort of Q1 and Q2, we do think half one expense is a little bit higher than half two as a result of that.”

“On our tax rate, as a result of the claim of right tax benefits related to recent and anticipated legal settlements, we now expect our full year rate to be lower than we guided, between 18% and 18.5%.”

“On the expense side, we have no material changes to our prior full year guidance, and still expect adjusted operating expense growth to be in the low double digits for the year.”

“We still expect our full year adjusted net revenue growth to be in the low double digits, reflecting anticipated weaker volatility environment the rest of the year, that's offset by the Q1 outperformance and higher utilization of our products and services.”

“On volatility, it has been much lower than we expected so far this year, and we are assuming that that volatility continued at current levels for the rest of the year, implying a larger drag for the rest of the year than in Q1 and with Q3 having the toughest comparable to last year's higher levels.”

“On incentives, we had true downs and deal timing that helped in Q1, that we do not expect will carry into Q2. As such, this implies a step up in the growth rate from Q1 to Q2, with Q3 continuing to have the highest year-over-year incentive growth rate and the full year remaining relatively unchanged.”

“On pricing, we also have no material changes, with the benefits of new pricing expected to be similar in magnitude as last year and the majority in the back half.”

“We have also expanded our A2A risk solution, Visa Protect for A2A, to two more countries this past quarter, with a half a dozen more planned by the end of the year.”

“And we expect to expand to more than 20 additional issuers this year.”

“We expect adjusted operating expense growth in the mid-teens, about a point above Q1 adjusted operating expense growth.”

“What that means from a cadence perspective is Q2 would see a relative step down in the year-over-year growth pricing contribution from Q1.”

“I should reiterate that we still expect our long-term tax rate to be between 19% and 20%.”

“All in all, we're pleased with the momentum in China and in -- across AP in general and think that, that is going to continue to be an important growth opportunity for us.”

“The Board has declared an increase to our quarterly dividend by 14%, and we intend to return excess free cash flow to shareholders through buybacks.”

“In terms of upcoming holiday quarter, I've provided our guidance for Q1. It is for a strong Q1, carrying the momentum that we saw coming out of Q4 with strong and stable underlying drivers as well as benefiting from the pricing from a year ago.”

“In 2026, we still expect to be below our long-term tax rate.”

“On a nominal basis, we expect an approximately 0.5 point benefit from FX, which implies nominal net revenue growth that is generally consistent with fiscal 2025, which was 11%.”

“On volatility, we expect volatility throughout the year to be generally consistent to where we exited Q4, which implies a drag for the first 3 quarters, with Q3 having the toughest comparable to 2025.”

“On incentives, we expect around 20% of our payments volume to be impacted by renewals this year, which implies incentive growth generally similar to 2025, with Q3 having the toughest comparable to 2025.”

“On pricing, for 2026, we expect the benefits of new pricing to be similar in magnitude and timing as in 2025, with the majority going into effect in the back half.”

“On key business drivers, we are assuming no material change from the Q4 2025 growth levels in 2026.”

“So we are anticipating a strong quarter going into the holiday -- our fiscal Q1, the holiday quarter that we see.”

“And for our expense growth, we expect an approximately 0.5 point drag from FX and a 1 point impact from acquisitions, which, taken together, result in nominal net revenue and expense growth that are more matched at the high end of low double digits.”

“When we look on a nominal basis for net revenue growth in Q1, we expect an approximately 0.5 point benefit from FX.”

“We expect adjusted operating expense growth in the low double digits.”

“We expect Q1 adjusted net revenue growth in the high end of low double digits.”

“As we think about the cadence of spend, we expect Q2 and Q3 to have the largest year-over-year growth rates as a result of marketing expense related to the Olympics and FIFA.”

“Second, we expect Q3 to have the lowest year-over-year net revenue growth rate, primarily due to the lapping impacts of strong volatility and lower-than-expected incentives in Q3 of 2025.”

“Should that trend continue, we'll continue to see a bigger weight toward the e-commerce side of the business.”

“But that all said, again, I'll just reiterate our guidance today, our view of adjusted net revenue for Q4 is unchanged from the view that we had a quarter ago, even after contemplating all the reestimation of the current volatility outlook drivers and our latest view of deal closures into Q4, it's going to be a fundamental strong Q4 to cap off a strong FY '25.”

“And when you add it up, we're going to finish a very strong FY '25 higher than we thought entering the quarter.”

“We still believe 20% of our PV is impacted this year above the 15% last year.”

“As we've communicated all this year and earlier in my comments, we expect Q4 -- we expected incentives to step up sequentially into Q3 and into Q4.”

“However, it is important to note that when you incorporate our performance year-to-date with our Q4 guidance, even though the full year guidance ranges are unchanged, we now expect our net revenue growth and EPS growth to be stronger than previously anticipated.”

“Pulling it all together for the full year, we have no changes to our full year adjusted guidance except for nonoperating income, which we expect to be about $250 million as a result of the third quarter.”

“and we see no meaningful impact from tariffs.”

“If you think about it, between volumes and revenue, volumes historically grown faster than PC. Even if PC slows, we're confident that we can continue to grow faster than that for all the reasons I spoke about.”

“we are well on our way to enter five new countries across four regions this year.”

“If we look at -- if we look at sort of the whole situation with China, so far, we're not seeing a material impact from tariffs related to China and specifically spend associated with the de minimis exemption, it's just not a material portion of our volumes and we wouldn't expect any material impact.”

“And then maybe the final thing I'll say is, when we look at the volume -- payment volume that was impacted by renewals, we still believe that we have the same expectation that we started the year, which is 20% of the payment volumes being impacted.”

“And then when we reforecast the second-half of the year, we do expect the second-half to grow higher than the first-half of the year, and we do expect that sequentially to be Q3 a little higher than Q2, and Q4 to be a little higher than Q3.”

“We do believe that pricing will benefit in the second half more than it did in the first half of this year.”

“We are soon launching our Tap to P2P products in the US with Samsung.”

“The second is the new unified checkout experience, available in the US and in pilot stage in additional markets in Q4.”

“The first is a completely new version of Authorized.net, launching in the US next quarter and additional countries next year.”

“Our first pilot partner, BBVA, plans to launch a stablecoin later this year on the Ethereum blockchain.”

“Moving now to the full year. Our full-year guidance for adjusted revenue growth, adjusted operating expense growth, non-operating income, tax rate, and adjusted EPS growth remains unchanged.”

“For acquisition impacts, we expect a minimal benefit to net revenue growth, an approximately 1 point contribution to operating expense growth, and an approximately 0.5 point headwind to EPS growth in the third quarter.”

“For incentives, as a result of some client performance adjustments and deal timing, we are assuming that the year-over-year growth in incentives in the back-half will be higher than the first-half, with sequential step-ups in Q3 and Q4.”

“For volatility, we have seen high FX volatility thus far in April, but assume this will moderate starting in May and remain level for the remainder of Q3 and Q4. This puts Q3 just above Q2 and Q4 more in line with Q2.”

“For cross-border volume, our assumption is that Q3 and Q4 volumes are in line with the average of March and April, which normalizes for Easter and Ramadan timing as well as accounts for other factors I referenced when describing Q2 results. This puts Q3 and Q4 cross-border volume growth slightly below Q4 2024 levels.”

“We still are on track to launch Visa A2A in early 2025.”

“It reflects -- we took -- we recorded a charge this quarter. It's reflected in the guide for the full year. It's really focusing our expenses. We don't expect another charge this year.”

“That is a trend that we -- in terms of commercial volumes, that is embedded into -- our expectations are embedded into our Q2 guidance. We anticipate they remain steady, stable, and strong through the remainder of the year.”

“And the revenue that we generate from these token-enabled services is meaningful, and it will be even more meaningful going forward.”

“I mentioned the banks we're now working with in Brazil to reduce fraud on Pix transactions... we're targeting up to 10 RTP networks during the course of this year.”

“In 2024, we launched Visa Protect for A2A payments, with plans to expand to 10 new RTP networks in 2025.”

“We are excited to partner with X Money for their much-anticipated launch of the X Money account, including P2P payment functionality set for later this year.”

“Featurespace and Pismo are expected to have a minimal impact on full year net revenue growth and approximately 1 point contribution to operating expense growth and an approximately 0.5-point headwind to EPS growth.”

“Taking all of this together, we now expect adjusted EPS growth to be in the low teens.”

“Based on our lower-than-expected tax rate in Q1 and an updated view for the rest of the year, we're lowering our expected tax rate to be between 17.5% and 18%.”

“There are no material changes to our adjusted operating expense growth and non-operating income expectations for the full year.”

“We now expect full year adjusted net revenue growth to be in the low-double-digits.”

“Non-operating income in the second quarter is expected to be negligible.”

“On capital return, the Board has declared an increase to our quarterly dividend by 13%, and we intend to return excess free cash flow to shareholders through buybacks.”

“And our product pipeline in 2025 is a bit more backloaded, especially as we bring some new and exciting products and services to the market, and so that really drives the difference in pricing cadence in 2025.”

“So if we take all our assumptions and those assumptions play out as we've articulated, we'd expect total revenue growth, adjusted net revenue growth to be in the middle of the range that we provided.”

“As we do not have a major event in Q1 like the Olympics or FIFA, we anticipate lower growth in consulting and marketing services-related revenue compared to Q4.”

“In addition, the timing of the deal terms in 2025 is such that we expect about 60% of the 2025 renewal volume to go into effect in Q1.”

“We currently expect to grow adjusted operating expense in the high single digit to low double digits as we continue to fund new flows and value-added services projects, our sales efforts and growth initiatives in specific countries.”

“In terms of quarterly variability, we expect the second half revenue performance to be better than the first due to some of the dynamics I have spoken about, volatility, pricing and, to a lesser extent, incentives.”

“We expect to close on Prosa and Featurespace in 2025, and when we do, we will update our estimates for the acquisition impacts.”

“Adding this up, 2025 year-over-year incentives growth is expected to be significantly higher than 2024.”

“In total, we expect more than 20% of our payments volume to be impacted by renewals in 2025 compared to less than 15% that was impacted in 2024.”

“We will continue to price to value in 2025 with the pricing impact being generally the same as 2024. However, the cadence is expected to be different as we expect the vast majority of the incremental pricing impact will take effect in April versus being more balanced between October and April as it was in 2024.”

“As such, we expect payments volume and processed transaction growth to remain strong and generally in line with full year 2024 levels.”

“We have hundreds of issuers in the pipeline and several launches planned for 2025 in the U.S., Asia Pacific, Europe, and CEMEA.”

“we will be piloting on 10 new RTP networks in 2025.”

“Initially, this is targeted at bill payments and we plan to launch in 2025 in the UK.”

“And over time, we do anticipate that we'll see continued growth of commercial volumes ahead of consumer volumes over time.”

“So again, at that level of penetration in a market the size of New York City, it's across the board in terms of products and issuers, and segments and the like. So, I think as we continue to see this growth happen, buyers, sellers, they love tapping as a way to pay. And we're going to continue to see that growth accelerate in a place like the U.S.”

“And we believe we'll continue to do that, and we believe we'll be able to continue to price for value.”

“And so we are confident that that will continue to be healthy relative to the domestic spend.”

“So while Chris noted, I think noted that the impact has remained the same, we haven't seen any change in impact, and I don't - and we're not expecting any change in impact for the fourth quarter.”

“And we do anticipate in Q4 that we'll continue to see, slight improvement sequentially again.”

“This keeps full year adjusted EPS growth in the low teens.”

“Full year adjusted operating expense growth will be in the high single digit to low double digits, reflecting the less favorable impact of FX.”

“With three quarters now complete, our expectations for full year adjusted net revenue growth remains unchanged from what we shared at the start of the year. Whilst absorbing the impact of lower currency volatility and the macroeconomic challenges in Asia, which have affected volumes, we still expect to reach low double-digit adjusted net revenue growth for the full year.”

“Pulling it all together, we expect adjusted net revenue growth in the low double digits, which equates to a slight improvement from the 10% adjusted revenue growth rate in the third quarter.”

“Incentives are expected to be at their lowest growth rate all year.”

“We anticipate continuing to see a good growth in the second half of the year.”

“For the full year, new flows will grow faster than consumer payments with weighted toward faster growth in the second half of the year.”

“Internationally, outside of Asia-Pacific, let's set that aside for a second, we saw improvement in several regions, including the impact from higher inflation in several markets. And so overall, excluding Asia, we still expect ATS to turn positive in the second half based on the expected improvements in the US with the impact of Asia factored in, global ATS will be slightly negative and that was factored into the revised payment volume outlook that I gave for the full year.”

“And looking ahead in the US, this is something that we've spoken to previously, we do continue to expect ATS will turn positive in the second half of this year as we lap the lower ticket sizes in the second half of last year.”

“We still expect year-over-year growth to be lower in the second half than in the first half as we lap the higher incentives that we saw starting in the second half of last year.”

“Non-operating income is expected to be between $50 million and $60 million and the tax rate is expected to be between 19% and 19.5% in Q3 with the full year unchanged.”

“Adjusted operating expenses in the third quarter are expected to grow in the low-teens, driven primarily by Olympic-related marketing expense due to the strong client engagement that Ryan referenced.”

“Currency volatility remains low and we are assuming volatility in the third quarter continues at a similar rate to the second quarter and adjusts up slightly in the fourth quarter.”

“We are reaffirming our prior year guidance for the full year for adjusted net revenue and operating expense growth in the low-double-digits and EPS growth in the low-teens.”

“It really is two different sets of things. One is it will reduce interchange for US -- for credit cards in the US market for both Visa and Mastercard and it will have no increases in interchange for the five years of the agreement.”

“It doesn't change our expectations for full year growth for new flows revenue, which will continue to outpace consumer revenue.”

“On incentives, yes, also no change in outlook for the full year.”

“We're reaffirming the outlook for the full-year on drivers, second half benefiting from average ticket sizes in the U.S. and inflation in certain international regions and continuing to executing a number of our growth initiatives in global markets.”

“Today, we've reaffirmed our full year guide on net revenue in constant dollars, and that includes the modest impact of Reg II that we talked about.”

“We have a similar expectation in terms of the range of growth in Q2... And we do anticipate that growth will accelerate into the second half of the year.”

“The good news is we've seen these type of weather-related patterns before. They tend to be short blips, and over the course of the quarter, tend to get smoothed back out.”

“So all in all, the impact is modest, really hasn't changed over the past quarter, and that's actually what we have assumed and we shared for the rest of the year.”

“As such, the tax rate is expected to be between 16% and 16.5% in Q2 with the full-year unchanged.”

“adjusted EPS growth is unchanged at low-teens.”

“Putting it all together, adjusted net revenues growth is unchanged at low-double-digits, adjusted operating expense growth is updated to low double digits, and adjusted EPS growth is unchanged at low-teens.”

“Non-GAAP non-operating income is expected to be between $350 million and $400 million, with nearly half in Q2 due to the resolution of some non-U.S. tax matters.”

“FX is expected to have an approximately 0.5 point drag to net revenues growth and approximately 1 point benefit to non-GAAP operating expense growth and a minimal drag to non-GAAP EPS growth.”

“Pismo is expected to have minimal benefit to full year net revenue growth and an approximately 0.5 point headwind to non-GAAP operating expense and EPS growth.”

“But most importantly drivers are stable and we continue to expect full-year 2024 new flows revenue to grow faster than consumer payments revenue.”

“The investment is subject to regulatory review and we hope to close in the second-half of calendar year 2024.”

“Cross-border travel volume, excluding intra-Europe, year-over-year growth will moderate to the low 20s in constant dollars and when compared to 2019 would equate to a 4- to 5-point improvement each quarter.”

“Cross-border, card-not-present ex travel and ex crypto volume growth will continue to be in the low double-digits year-over-year on a constant dollar basis.”

“We anticipate approximately 0.5 point FX headwind to nominal net revenues growth and approximately 1.5 point benefit to nominal non-GAAP expense growth.”

“So for the first quarter specifically, given the variables I just described, Q1 is expected to have the lowest adjusted year-over-year net revenues growth rate with an improving trend throughout the year, and Q4 is expected to be at the highest adjusted growth rate.”

“The tax rate is expected to be lower in the second half than the first due to the anticipated onetime tax benefits I mentioned.”

“But adjusted operating expense growth and the FX impact will roughly be the same in both half.”

“On the expense side, as Ryan mentioned, this is an Olympics year, and we expect Q2 and Q3 expense to have the largest percentage increases as we ramp.”

“This will also be the case on a nominal basis, even with a slightly larger FX headwind in the second half of FY 2024 than the first half.”

“As a result, we expect overall adjusted net revenue growth to be lower in the first half than in the second half of FY 2024.”

“In total, this will put us between 18.5% and 19% for the full fiscal year.”

“The tax rate is expected to be slightly favorable to our typical rate of 19% to 19.5% due to some offsetting factors.”

“For new flows and value-added services, we continue to expect those to grow faster than consumer payments in FY 2024.”

“This means that Visa is now processing FedNow payments with the clearinghouse RTP to follow in the next few months.”

“This positions us to reach nearly 80% of domestic transactions by the end of FY 2024 from essentially zero in 2019.”

“Over the next few years, we expect to migrate more than 40 million cards across nearly 40 clients.”

“Non-operating income will continue to benefit from the attractive rates we’re earning on our cash balances. Interest income from cash will more than offset interest expense from debt by around $30 million in the fourth quarter.”

“As we indicated previously, non-GAAP operating expense growth in Q4 will likely be another 2 to 3 points lower than Q3.”

“In the fourth quarter, we expect incentives as a percent of gross revenues to be between 27.5% to 28.5% to finish the year at the high end of the 26.5% to 27.5% range.”

“Also, currency volatility is moderating, and we are now lapping very high currency volatility from the fourth quarter last year.”

“It is important to note that just as we saw in the third quarter, even as the cross-border business continues to recover relative to 2019, the year-over-year growth rate will continue to slow down.”

“On the cross-border e-commerce front, we’re also assuming recent trends continue adjusted for crypto-related volatility.”

“The cross-border travel index to 2019, excluding intra-Europe, has been improving at a rate of 5 to 6 points each quarter. We are assuming this pace of recovery continues into the fourth quarter.”

“On the cross-border front, the travel recovery trend has been steady and generally in line with our expectations so far for fiscal year ‘23.”

“Growth in domestic payments volumes remained stable around the globe. As such, we’re assuming recent trends will sustain in the U.S. and key international markets for the rest of the quarter.”

“We continue to believe that merchants are going to want to choose to route transactions to Visa for a number of reasons.”

“We continue to believe that there'll be minimum impact in fiscal year '23 and beyond that, it's yet to be determined.”

“Our tax rate is expected to remain in the 19% to 19.5% range in the third quarter.”

“Interest income from cash will likely offset interest expense from debt by $5 million to $10 million in the third quarter.”

“And Q4 non-GAAP operating expense growth will likely be another 2 points, 3 points lower than Q3.”

“As we indicated previously, non-GAAP operating expense growth is expected to moderate through the year. Our expectations remain unchanged. Q3 non-GAAP operating expense growth is expected to be 2 points to 3 points lower than the second quarter inclusive of an exchange rate impact, which may add half a point to growth.”

“When you put all this together, third quarter net revenue growth is expected to be in the low-double-digits, inclusive of an approximately 1 point drag from exchange rate.”

“In the second half, this percentage is likely to run above the high-end of the range. We expect to finish the year in the upper half of the 26.5% to 27.5% range.”

“Client incentive growth is expected to be higher in the second half than it was in the first.”

“It is important to note that even as the cross-border business continues to recover, relative to 2019, the year-over-year growth rate will continue to slow down as it has over the past few quarters.”

“The cross-border travel index to 2019, excluding intra-Europe, has been improving at a rate of 5 points to 6 points each quarter. We are assuming this trend is sustained through the third quarter.”

“In aggregate, we expect the international growth trajectory remains largely unchanged from the second quarter.”

“We expect this headwind to a bit as we get into May.”

“We believe there is more recovery to come.”

“I'm pleased to share that First National Bank in South Africa has launched a solution and Visa expects more pilots to follow soon globally.”

“So Vasant talked about the fact that we're not counting on any kind of recovery that inbound into China into the second half of the year.”

“And then you expect and we expect that cross-border travel index to keep improving through the year.”

“At this point, we're not changing any expectations for the second half.”

“With a non-GAAP 16.5% rate in the first quarter, the full year non-GAAP tax rate is now expected to range between 18.5% to 19%.”

“Our third quarter non-GAAP operating expense growth rate is expected to decline an additional 2 points to 3 points, with a further 2 point to 3 point reduction in the fourth quarter.”

“In the second quarter, non-GAAP operating expense growth in nominal dollars is expected to be 2 points to 3 points lower than the first quarter expense growth.”

“As we indicated in October, operating expenses growth rates will moderate through the year as we reduce the rate of increase as well as lap higher levels from last year.”

“Second quarter client incentives are expected to run higher at the upper end of the range, finishing the first half in the middle of the range.”

“With an almost 5-point Russia impact and a 2-point exchange rate headwind, reported nominal dollar Q2 net revenue growth would be in the high single digits.”

“Based on where the dollar is today and the forward curve, exchange rates will reduce reported net revenue growth in the second quarter by about 2 points.”

“Discontinuation of operations in Russia will reduce second quarter net revenue growth by almost 5 points since we recorded nearly two quarters' worth of service fees in the second quarter of fiscal year '22.”

“We expect most of the Mainland China travel recovery in the second half and beyond for reasons I outlined earlier.”

“We're resuming cross-border e-commerce growth rates sustained through the second quarter, ex Russia and crypto.”

“Moving now to our outlook for the second quarter. For the second quarter, we are assuming that trends in domestic payments volume and processed transactions are sustained with some benefit from lapping Omicron in January last year.”

“With China lifting restrictions on January 8, we expect more recovery to come.”

“For the year, we expect to renew about 20% of our payments volume with a good amount already completed in the first quarter.”

“For the year, our going-in planning assumption is nominal growth of about 9%.”

“For planning purposes, we assume that it starts to moderate through the year. It’s still high and we are assuming that it will be maybe higher than normal in the first quarter and then moderates as we go through the year to what we have seen in the past to levels that are normal over a long period of time.”

“Second quarter net revenue growth is expected to be lower than the first quarter because of the Russia impact, which is higher.”

“Our tax rate is expected to remain in the 19% to 19.5% range in FY 2023.”

“We currently expect non-operating expense to be in the $200 million, $250 million range for fiscal year 2023.”

“As such, non-GAAP expense growth in nominal dollars is expected to be in the low-double digits in the first half and at the high end of mid-single digits in the second half, highest in the first quarter, which is also impacted by the FIFA World Cup and moderating through the year.”

“Our current plans are for low double-digit non-GAAP operating expense growth in constant dollars, high single digits in nominal dollars, Tink and Currencycloud, which closed during fiscal year 2022 at about 1 point to expense growth, offset by the discontinuation of Russia operations and exchange rate changes, which are expected to be about a 1.5 point benefit each.”

“With a 4-point Russia drag and a stiffer exchange rate headwind, first half reported nominal dollar net revenue growth is expected to be lower than the second half, lowest growth in the second quarter, which has the largest Russia impact and stepping up in the third and fourth quarters with no Russia drag and hopefully a moderating exchange rate headwind.”

“When you pull all this together, our planning assumptions get us to mid-teens constant dollar net revenue growth on a run rate basis, i.e., adjusted for Russia.”

“Since the dollar strengthened through fiscal year 2022, the impact is greater in the first quarter at around 5 points, around 4.5 points in the second quarter and moderate through the year.”

“Based on where the dollar is today and the forward curve, exchange rates will reduce reported net revenue growth in fiscal year 2023 by around 4 points.”

“Russia will reduce full year net revenue growth by 5 points.”

“Since we discontinued operations in late March, Russia will reduce first half fiscal year 2023 revenue growth by over 4 points, with 4 points in the first quarter and as much as 5 points in the second quarter.”

“For planning purposes, we are assuming that this recent month-to-month pace of recovery sustains through fiscal year 2023.”

“We are assuming this stability sustains through fiscal year 2023 with normal year-over-year growth rates in the low-double digits for both business drivers.”

“Our tax rate is expected to stay in the 19% to 19.5% range.”

“Personnel costs will be higher since we are granting annual salary increases a quarter earlier than normal to all employees below the SVP level. This will add three points to Q4 operating expense growth.”

“This includes 2 points of added expense from Currencycloud and Tink, offset by 3 points from reduced costs due to Russia.”

“For the year, we now expect client incentives as a percent of gross revenues in the middle of the 25.5% to 26.5% range.”

“For the fourth quarter, we're assuming stable growth versus 2019 in cross-border e-commerce and some improvement from travel in and out of Europe and into the US, especially from Asia.”

“As such, we are assuming that the trends we have seen in payments volume and processed transactions will continue through the fourth quarter.”

“But there are no big openings left, which is why we don't think there'll be a big stair step up in the fourth quarter.”

“As you look at the fourth quarter, most of the world is open. And so we are assuming steady improvement in travel out of Asia, steady improvement of travel into and out of Europe, improvement of travel into the US.”

“In short, we think there definitely is still more opportunity in the pricing lever.”

“The pull forward of salary increases means that when we get to the fourth quarter of next year, we'll lap the increase that we have. So in that sense, yes, it moderates a little bit the impact on next year since some of it comes into this year.”

“So, yes, for sure, there is some element of pent-up demand, but I think that, that demand is going to remain strong for some time.”

“As we enter the post-COVID era, we remain confident we can sustain a rate of growth about pre-COVID levels for all the reasons Al outlined, which I will summarize again.”

“Despite the uncertainties caused by inflation, interest rates, the invasion of Ukraine and our exit from Russia, we expect fiscal year '22 will be a very strong year of above-trend top and bottom line growth.”

“Yes, to the extent that the correction we're seeing in public markets carries over to private markets over a period of time, certainly, we expect to be more active.”

“we believe that it can grow faster than consumer when we get back to a more normal time post the pandemic and obviously, one big factor there will be the pace at which business travel returns.”

“For the full year, we still expect to be in the range we gave you.”

“As new flows and value-added services become a larger part of our revenue mix, growing faster than consumer payments, the sustainable growth rate will continue to rise.”

“Our full year tax rate is expected to be in the 19% to 19.5% range.”

“Nominal operating expense growth will be around 1.5 points lower due to the stronger dollar.”

“We expect constant dollar non-GAAP operating expense growth at the upper end of mid-teens.”

“There is no change in our expectation for full year incentives. Incentives as a percent of gross revenues are expected to range between 25.5% to 26.5%.”

“Exchange rates will likely drag nominal growth rates down by around 2 points.”

“At this point, we expect fourth quarter trends to be generally in line with the third quarter.”

“Given where we ended the second quarter, we now expect cross-border travel ex intra-Europe to fully recover to 2019 levels by the end of our fiscal year despite the loss of Russian business.”

“It is important to note that year-over-year growth rates will moderate as we lap the strong second half recovery in fiscal year '21.”

“In line with payments volumes, we expect processed transactions growth relative to 2019 to remain strong and stable with the variability largely driven by the extent to which small ticket card-present everyday spend comes back.”

“E-commerce spend, both domestic and cross-border has remained strong and stable relative to 2019 at well above the pre-COVID trend line, even as pandemic effects fade, and we are assuming this will continue.”

“Our outlook for the second half assumes that these trends are sustained.”

“The impact on process transactions index to 2019 will be under 1 point since we did not process domestic transactions in Russia.”

“Russia will also negatively impact the payments volume and cross-border volume index to 2019, each by 4 points.”

“As we look ahead, our business will have a reset due to Russia, but we still expect accelerated revenue growth versus pre-COVID over the coming years.”

“And if the travel business returns only to the pre-COVID growth rates, which we see no reason why it wouldn't, so let's assume it grows above pre-COVID growth rates gets to the trend line and then begins to grow at pre-COVID trend rates.”

“Well, I think the short answer is we fully expect to get back to pre-COVID trend levels, meaning whatever the trend line was, we will get back to that trend line.”

“The e-commerce business cross-border is clearly one that we think can sustain above trend growth rates relative to pre-COVID.”

“Well, Darrin, I think, first in the near term, I think the upside is going to come from continued recovery of travel and the affluent customer getting back in the mix of spending at the levels they were pre the pandemic.”

“As new flows and value-added services become a larger part of our revenue mix, growing faster than consumer payments, the sustainable growth rate will continue to rise.”

“We expect our growth this year will be well above the pre-COVID rate as cross-border recovers. This will likely continue into fiscal year '23.”

“We expect organic non-GAAP operating expenses growth at the high end of mid-teens.”

“With revenue mix improving from higher cross-border volumes, incentives as a percent of gross revenues would range between 25.5% to 26.5% for the year.”

“The inclusion of currency cloud will add another 1.5 points to non-GAAP operating expense growth.”

“As such, we expect net revenues to grow at the high end of high teens in the second quarter, including over 1 point of exchange rate drag.”

“We're assuming the cross-border travel recovery resumes in February.”

“In Q1, revenue grew over 20%, and we expect strong growth to continue.”

“Our capabilities and value proposition are strong versus the competition, and we expect revenue yield to continue to improve as we scale and grow Visa Direct, especially in cross-border use cases.”

“As we look ahead, we expect accelerated revenue growth versus pre-COVID over the coming years, driven by our three strategic levers of consumer payments, new flows and value-added services.”

“There is a possibility because of the e-commerce business that the cross-border business in total can grow faster than pre-COVID growth rates after it gets back to the pre-COVID trend line.”

“And I think a lot of what I commented on in terms of wins and advances and value-added services in Fiscal '21 will continue into Fiscal '22.”

“Non-operating expense is expected to be in the 120 to 130 million ranges each quarter, and our tax rate for the year is also expected to stay in the 19% to 19.5% range.”

“Expense growth will be higher in the first half and moderate in the second half as we lap the resumption of investment spending in Fiscal Year '21.”

“First quarter growth in the high teens will moderate through the year, as we lap the recovery in Fiscal Year '21.”

“In Fiscal Year '22, we expect to benefit from revenue mix improvement as cross-border travel continues to recover; partially offset by the lapping of incentive reductions we had in Fiscal Year '21 due to the COVID impact.”

“We expect new flows and value-added services growth in the high teens.”

“We also assume the strong growth in cross-border e-commerce continues.”

“We assume that recovery underway continue steadily through Fiscal Year '22 to reach 2019 levels in the summer of 2023.”

“And as cross-border volumes return over the next 2 years, it will only help to further drive our growth.”

“But as I think, as people start to come back to work, as business travel starts to return, as I feel good that the commercial volume will continue to come back as well.”

“We're going to continue to see our platform-type services, CyberSource, our issuer processing, our risk and identity services, which represent about two-thirds of our value-added services, grow very nicely.”

“We are preparing for multiple quarters of recovery.”

“And we see the eCommerce cross-border continuing to be robust as we look forward.”

“Everything we're seeing so far, if you adjust for unique things that's happened in 2019 is a trend that's either stable or slightly better in the U.S. and around the world, either stable or slightly better, with no evidence right now anywhere of Delta impact in the spending.”

“I think as travel comes back, our card benefits and travel-related card benefits will increase.”